Victoria, AustraliaMagnetic latitude 45.8°Population 11,50875 m above sea level
Can you see the southern lights in Swan Hill?
Only severe geomagnetic storms (Kp 8.3 or more) bring the aurora into view from Swan Hill — a few nights per solar cycle, low in the south. Since 1995 that level (Kp 8.3) was reached during darkness here on 16 nights.
Right now
It is still light here. Darkness starts at 20:42.
Latest measured half-hour activity worldwide: Hp30 0.3.
Updates every minute while this page is open. Ground data: GFZ Potsdam Hp30 index (CC BY 4.0).
Tonight in one minute
Not tonight
- Solar activity Too weak: Kp 4 expected, 8.3 needed here.
- Sky Overcast (77% cloud).
- Darkness Dark from 20:42 to 05:38.
What to do: Not tonight — your next chance is shown just below.
Wednesday 21 October — No · Kp 4 · Forecast cloud: 77%. · Reliability: good
Each box is one night: the colour shows the chance, the number the expected Kp. Tap a night for details.
📅 Add these nights to your calendar — it updates itself (.ics)
How far ahead can the northern lights be forecast?
- Minutes to an hour: satellites 1.5 million km away measure the solar wind before it reaches Earth. This is the surest warning — the “Right now” box uses it.
- 1–3 days: when the Sun throws out a cloud of particles, it takes one to three days to arrive. NOAA's 3-hourly forecast covers these nights; the timing can still be off by a few hours.
- 4–27 days: the Sun turns once every 27 days, and regions that disturbed Earth's field last time often do it again. NOAA's 27-day outlook gives this rough trend — new eruptions are not in it yet.
Tonight
Updated 16:43 local time
Unlikely
Best around 20:00. Forecast max Kp 4.0 (this place needs 8.3), average cloud 77%.
- Dark enough
- 20:42 – 05:38
- Sunset
- 19:44 · sunrise 06:35
- Moon
- 65% · ↑ 13:39 · ↓ 03:43
- Kp neededKp index: a 0–9 measure of geomagnetic activity. The higher it is, the further from the poles the aurora reaches.
- Kp 8.3
- Kp for photos
- In photos: from Kp 6.7 (a red glow low in the south).
- Look towards
- south (186°)
Cloud layers and weather
Low cloud blocks the aurora completely. Thin high cloud often still lets a bright aurora shine through, so a sky with only high cloud is worth a look.
| Time | Tue, 20 | Tue, 23 | Wed, 02 | Wed, 05 | Wed, 22 | Thu, 01 | Thu, 04 | Thu, 21 | Fri, 00 | Fri, 03 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low cloud | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Mid cloud | 59% | 28% | 38% | 52% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| High cloud | 73% | 52% | 40% | 30% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 36% |
| Temperature | 25 °C | 21 °C | 19 °C | 18 °C | 23 °C | 20 °C | 18 °C | 25 °C | 21 °C | 19 °C |
| Feels like | 25 °C | 21 °C | 19 °C | 18 °C | 23 °C | 20 °C | 18 °C | 25 °C | 21 °C | 19 °C |
| Wind | 5 m/s | 4 m/s | 3 m/s | 3 m/s | 4 m/s | 4 m/s | 4 m/s | 5 m/s | 5 m/s | 5 m/s |
Cloud layers and weather: Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0).
Score = activity (NOAA Kp and OVATION) × clear sky (MET Norway) × darkness × moonlight. Methodology
Weather in Swan Hill
The aurora only shows through clear skies, so the weather matters as much as the Kp index. Here is the general forecast for Swan Hill: temperature, wind and the chance of rain for the coming days.
Planning further ahead? See the hour-by-hour weather forecast for Swan Hill on Atlas of Seasons.
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What you would see from Swan Hill
Facing south. Bands show where the aurora sits at two activity levels.
| Kp | What you see | Lower edge | Ray tops | Distance to the aurora |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Below the horizon | -5° | -2° | 1,857 km |
| 3 | Below the horizon | -4° | -1° | 1,635 km |
| 4 | Below the horizon | -2° | 2° | 1,412 km |
| 5 | Below the horizon | 0° | 4° | 1,190 km |
| 6 | Below the horizon | 2° | 7° | 967 km |
| 7 | Faint glow, mostly on camera | 5° | 11° | 745 km |
| 8 | Faint glow, mostly on camera | 9° | 18° | 523 km |
| 9 | Visible to the south | 18° | 32° | 300 km |
The Kp scale in plain words
Kp is a 0–9 score for how strongly the Earth's magnetic field is being shaken by the solar wind. The higher it goes, the further from the poles the northern lights reach. Kp 0–2 is a quiet night; Kp 5 and above is a geomagnetic storm.
- Kp 0–2 Quiet Only under the auroral oval: northern Norway, Swedish and Finnish Lapland, Iceland, Alaska, northern Canada.
- Kp 3 Unsettled Bright in the Arctic; low on the horizon in central Scandinavia and southern Iceland.
- Kp 4 Active next 24 h Overhead in the Arctic; low in the north from southern Norway, Sweden, Finland and northern Scotland.
- Kp 5 Minor storm (G1) Scotland, southern Scandinavia, the Baltic states, the northern US states and southern Canada.
- Kp 6 Moderate storm (G2) Northern England, Denmark, northern Germany and Poland, the US Midwest — often clearer in photos than to the eye.
- Kp 7 Strong storm (G3) camera in Swan Hill Most of the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Czechia; red glow in photos from France and the northern Alps.
- Kp 8 Severe storm (G4) eye in Swan Hill Central Europe to the eye; red sky in photos from northern Italy, Spain, the Balkans and Turkey's Black Sea coast.
- Kp 9 Extreme storm (G5) Seen across Europe and the US; in photos as far south as the Mediterranean, Turkey and North Africa (May 2024).
Light pollution
Suburban sky. Noticeable sky glow. Bright displays are visible, but driving out of town makes a clear difference.
Estimate from NASA VIIRS night-light data (sky-glow model within 50 km). Check access and private land before you go.
Hills and mountains
Terrain is not modelled for this place.
From elevation data (AWS Terrain Tiles) along seven lines of sight up to 30 km.
Best months to see the aurora in Swan Hill
Share of nights 2005–2025 that were dark, active enough here and mostly clear.
Activity of Kp 8.3 or more is too rare here for monthly odds to be meaningful. The table still shows how often nights are clear and dark.
| Month | Good nights | Clear nights | Darkness | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March | 0% | 86% | 9.8 h | 15° / 30°C |
| April | 0% | 87% | 11.0 h | 11° / 25°C |
| May | 0% | 82% | 11.6 h | 8° / 19°C |
| June | 0% | 79% | 12.3 h | 5° / 16°C |
| July | 0% | 81% | 12.0 h | 5° / 15°C |
| August | 0.2% | 85% | 11.3 h | 5° / 17°C |
| September | 0% | 87% | 10.3 h | 7° / 21°C |
| October | 0% | 81% | 9.0 h | 10° / 26°C |
Aurora nights in Swan Hill since 1995
Nights when Kp reached 8.3 or more while it was dark here.
Most recent strong nights
- 11 May 2024 · Kp 9.0
- 10 May 2024 · Kp 8.7
- 24 March 2024 · Kp 8.3
- 23 April 2023 · Kp 8.3
- 8 September 2017 · Kp 8.3
- 22 June 2015 · Kp 8.3
- 24 August 2005 · Kp 8.7
- 8 May 2005 · Kp 8.3
Practical information
- Nearest airport
- Mildura Airport (MQL) · 182 km
- Typical low / high in August
- 5° / 17°C
- What to wear
- Cool nights: layers, a windproof jacket, hat and gloves for standing still outside. Full clothing guide
- Emergency number
- 000 (112 also works from mobile phones)
- Winter driving
- Under Victoria's Alpine Resorts (Management) Regulations 2020, every vehicle entering Falls Creek, Mt Baw Baw, Mt Buller, Mt Hotham and Mt Stirling must carry fitting wheel chains during the declared snow season (2026: 7 June - 4 October). Check VicTraffic for live Victorian road disruptions; in Tasmania, elevated roads get snow and ice in winter and closures are posted via Tasmania Police alerts / TasALERT. Road conditions
- Access to land
- Most Tasmanian national parks require a valid Parks & Wildlife Service parks pass per vehicle (24-hour, holiday/8-week, annual options; Cradle Mountain excluded from the 24-hour pass). Check land tenure before parking at night and respect any local closures.
- Official space-weather service
- Bureau of Meteorology Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre (Aurora Watch/Alert/Outlook)
- Weather service
- Bureau of Meteorology
Questions and answers
What Kp do you need to see the aurora in Swan Hill?
Only severe geomagnetic storms (Kp 8.3 or more) bring the aurora into view from Swan Hill — a few nights per solar cycle, low in the south.
Which way should I look for the aurora in Swan Hill?
Face south (about 186° from true north). At Kp 8.3 the lower edge of the aurora sits roughly 18° above the horizon; stronger activity lifts it higher and further across the sky.
When is the aurora season in Swan Hill?
Swan Hill gets dark enough for the aurora all year round, though the long winter nights give the most hours to watch.
Is there much light pollution in Swan Hill?
Noticeable sky glow. Bright displays are visible, but driving out of town makes a clear difference.
When was the aurora last possible in Swan Hill?
The most recent night in our data when activity reached the level Swan Hill needs, during darkness, was 11 May 2024 (Kp 9.0). It has happened on 16 nights since 1995.
Also covered by this forecast
Villages and districts around Swan Hill share its forecast: within a few kilometres the sky, the Kp needed and the best direction are the same.
- Murraydale 5 km
- Murrawee 6 km
- Tyntynder South 7 km
- Tyntynder Central 9 km
- Castle Donnington 10 km
- Murray Downs 10 km
- Woorinen 11 km
- Tyntynder 11 km
- Pental Island 14 km
- Beverford 15 km
- Woorinen North 16 km
- Lake Boga 16 km
- Goschen 18 km
- Pira 19 km
- Fish Point 19 km
- Nowie North 21 km
- Vinifera 22 km
- Tresco 22 km
- Kunat 23 km
- Dilpurra 23 km
- Nyah 24 km
- Nyah West 25 km
- Koraleigh 25 km
- Nowie 26 km
- Mystic Park 28 km
- Ultima 29 km
- Stony Crossing 29 km
- Beauchamp 30 km
- Yarraby 31 km
- Meatian 32 km
- Wood Wood 33 km
- Benjeroop 33 km
- Gowanford 34 km
- Capels Crossing 35 km
- Towan 38 km
- Piangil 38 km
- Murrabit West 38 km
- Chillingollah East 38 km
- Tooleybuc 39 km
- Gonn Crossing 39 km