What are my chances of seeing the aurora?
Choose where and when you want to go and how many nights you will stay. The odds come from 21 years of real nights at that place.
How the planner works
For each destination and month we counted the nights between 2005 and 2025 that were dark, had enough geomagnetic activity for that place and mostly clear skies. Your chance of at least one good night over N nights is 1 − (1 − p)^N.
Weather comes in spells, so nights are not fully independent: treat the result as a slightly optimistic guide and prefer longer stays.