Updated 13:41 UTC
Aurora forecast
Activity is quiet (max Kp 2.7 in the next 24 hours). Displays are still likely under the auroral oval — northern Scandinavia, Iceland, Alaska and northern Canada. At that level it can appear low on the horizon down to about 57° magnetic latitude.
The next 27 days at a glance
Highest expected Kp each day. The first three days are a detailed forecast; after that it is a rough trend based on the Sun's 27-day rotation. Tap a day for what it means.
- Detailed forecast Fri 16 3.3
- Sat 17 1.7
- Sun 18 1.7
- Mon 19 1.7
- 27-day trend Tue 20 2
- Wed 21 3
- Thu 22 4
- Fri 23 4
- Sat 24 3
- Sun 25 2
- Mon 26 2
- Tue 27 2
- Wed 28 2
- Thu 29 2
- Fri 30 2
- Sat 31 5
- Sun 1 5
- Mon 2 3
- Tue 3 2
- Wed 4 2
- Thu 5 2
- Fri 6 3
- Sat 7 3
Each box is one night: the colour shows the chance, the number the expected Kp. Tap a night for details.
The Kp scale in plain words
Kp is a 0–9 score for how strongly the Earth's magnetic field is being shaken by the solar wind. The higher it goes, the further from the poles the northern lights reach. Kp 0–2 is a quiet night; Kp 5 and above is a geomagnetic storm.
- Kp 0–2 Quiet Only under the auroral oval: northern Norway, Swedish and Finnish Lapland, Iceland, Alaska, northern Canada.
- Kp 3 Unsettled next 24 h Bright in the Arctic; low on the horizon in central Scandinavia and southern Iceland.
- Kp 4 Active Overhead in the Arctic; low in the north from southern Norway, Sweden, Finland and northern Scotland.
- Kp 5 Minor storm (G1) Scotland, southern Scandinavia, the Baltic states, the northern US states and southern Canada.
- Kp 6 Moderate storm (G2) Northern England, Denmark, northern Germany and Poland, the US Midwest — often clearer in photos than to the eye.
- Kp 7 Strong storm (G3) Most of the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Czechia; red glow in photos from France and the northern Alps.
- Kp 8 Severe storm (G4) Central Europe to the eye; red sky in photos from northern Italy, Spain, the Balkans and Turkey's Black Sea coast.
- Kp 9 Extreme storm (G5) Seen across Europe and the US; in photos as far south as the Mediterranean, Turkey and North Africa (May 2024).
Solar wind, last 24 hours
Measured by satellites 1.5 million km towards the Sun, about 30–60 minutes before it reaches Earth. Fast, dense wind and a southward (negative) Bz feed the aurora.
Data: NOAA SWPC real-time solar wind (DSCOVR/ACE), 10-minute means. Times in UTC.
Solar wind speed
442 km/s is a calm solar wind. On its own it will not drive strong displays.
Bz: the switch
Bz is near zero (-0.4 nT). Activity is unlikely to build until it turns south.
How far ahead can anyone know?
The solar wind is measured about 1.5 million km upstream, giving 30–60 minutes of warning. Forecasts for 1–3 days depend on eruptions already seen on the Sun; anything further ahead is a seasonal guide.
Kp index: last 2 days and the next 3
Where the aurora is right now
NOAA's OVATION model: probability of visible aurora for the next 30 minutes.
Loading map…
Drag to turn the globe, scroll or pinch to zoom. Green: the aurora right now (NOAA OVATION). Lines: how far south it can be seen tonight.
Featured places within reach of the forecast maximum: Grand Marais, Lerwick, Jasper, Tórshavn, Anchorage, Talkeetna
Live sightings
Where visitors are reporting the aurora right now. A place climbs with every report and drops again as the reports age.
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Latest reports
How to use this page
Compare the Kp forecast with the level your place needs (shown on every place page). If the forecast reaches it and the cloud forecast is good, plan to be out in darkness.
In the last hour, watch Bz: a southward field lasting 15–30 minutes is the best sign that a display is about to start.
On the night
Give your eyes 20 minutes to adapt and avoid bright screens. Activity comes in bursts: stay out longer rather than checking once.
Faint aurora looks grey to the eye but green on camera. If you see a pale arc towards the pole, take a test photo.