Manitoba, CanadaMagnetic latitude 60.4°Population 4,198340 m above sea level
Northern lights in Swan River
From Swan River the aurora is visible on most active nights — first low to the north, from about Kp 1.
Right now
It is still light here. Darkness starts at 19:59.
Latest measured half-hour activity worldwide: Hp30 3.7.
Updates every minute while this page is open. Ground data: GFZ Potsdam Hp30 index (CC BY 4.0).
Tonight in one minute
Yes — good chance tonight
- Solar activity Strong enough: Kp 1.7 expected, 1 needed here.
- Sky Mostly clear (17% cloud).
- Darkness Dark from 19:59 to 07:01.
What to do: Go somewhere dark around 00:00, give your eyes 15 minutes to adjust and look north, low over the horizon.
- Detailed forecast Sat 17 1.7 Good chance · Kp 1.7
- Sun 18 2 Good chance · Kp 2
- 27-day trend Mon 19 2 Possible · Kp 2
- Tue 20 3 Good chance · Kp 3
- Wed 21 4 Good chance · Kp 4
- Thu 22 4 Possible · Kp 4
- Fri 23 3 Possible · Kp 3
- Sat 24 2 Possible · Kp 2
- Sun 25 2 Possible · Kp 2
- Mon 26 2 Possible · Kp 2
- Tue 27 2 Possible · Kp 2
- Wed 28 2 Possible · Kp 2
- Thu 29 2 Good chance · Kp 2
- Fri 30 5 Good chance · Kp 5
- Sat 31 5 Good chance · Kp 5
- Sun 1 3 Good chance · Kp 3
- Mon 2 2 Good chance · Kp 2
- Tue 3 2 Good chance · Kp 2
- Wed 4 2 Good chance · Kp 2
- Thu 5 3 Good chance · Kp 3
- Fri 6 3 Good chance · Kp 3
Saturday 17 October — Good chance · Kp 1.7 · best around 23:30 · Forecast cloud: 17%. · Reliability: good
Each box is one night: the colour shows the chance, the number the expected Kp. Tap a night for details.
📅 Add these nights to your calendar — it updates itself (.ics)
How far ahead can the northern lights be forecast?
- Minutes to an hour: satellites 1.5 million km away measure the solar wind before it reaches Earth. This is the surest warning — the “Right now” box uses it.
- 1–3 days: when the Sun throws out a cloud of particles, it takes one to three days to arrive. NOAA's 3-hourly forecast covers these nights; the timing can still be off by a few hours.
- 4–27 days: the Sun turns once every 27 days, and regions that disturbed Earth's field last time often do it again. NOAA's 27-day outlook gives this rough trend — new eruptions are not in it yet.
Tonight
Updated 15:25 local time
Good chance
Best around 00:00. Forecast max Kp 1.7 (this place needs 1), average cloud 17%.
- Dark enough
- 19:59 – 07:01
- Sunset
- 18:46 · sunrise 08:15
- Moon
- 42% · ↑ 15:44 · ↓ 22:53
- Kp neededKp index: a 0–9 measure of geomagnetic activity. The higher it is, the further from the poles the aurora reaches.
- Kp 1
- Kp for photos
- In photos: from Kp 0 (a red glow low in the north).
- Look towards
- north (8°)
Cloud layers and weather
Low cloud blocks the aurora completely. Thin high cloud often still lets a bright aurora shine through, so a sky with only high cloud is worth a look.
| Time | Sat, 20 | Sat, 23 | Sun, 02 | Sun, 05 | Sun, 21 | Mon, 00 | Mon, 03 | Mon, 06 | Mon, 22 | Tue, 01 | Tue, 04 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low cloud | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Mid cloud | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 87% | 100% | 99% |
| High cloud | 3% | 91% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 86% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 34% |
| Temperature | 14 °C | 13 °C | 10 °C | 9 °C | 6 °C | 4 °C | 2 °C | 1 °C | 9 °C | 11 °C | 11 °C |
| Feels like | 9 °C | 7 °C | 5 °C | 3 °C | 1 °C | -1 °C | -2 °C | -3 °C | 5 °C | 6 °C | 6 °C |
| Wind | 6 m/s | 7 m/s | 4 m/s | 7 m/s | 4 m/s | 5 m/s | 3 m/s | 3 m/s | 2 m/s | 5 m/s | 5 m/s |
| Visibility | 50 km | 47 km | 43 km | 43 km | 46 km | 38 km | 27 km | 23 km | 24 km | 24 km | 24 km |
Cloud layers and weather: Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0).
Score = activity (NOAA Kp and OVATION) × clear sky (MET Norway) × darkness × moonlight. Methodology
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What you would see from Swan River
Facing north. Bands show where the aurora sits at two activity levels.
| Kp | What you see | Lower edge | Ray tops | Distance to the aurora |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Visible to the north | 11° | 21° | 456 km |
| 2 | Visible to the north | 23° | 39° | 234 km |
| 3 | Visible to the north | 84° | 87° | 11 km |
| 4 | Overhead and all around | – | – | – |
| 5 | Overhead, and also to the south | – | – | – |
| 6 | Overhead, and also to the south | – | – | – |
| 7 | Overhead, and also to the south | – | – | – |
| 8 | Overhead, and also to the south | – | – | – |
| 9 | Overhead, and also to the south | – | – | – |
The Kp scale in plain words
Kp is a 0–9 score for how strongly the Earth's magnetic field is being shaken by the solar wind. The higher it goes, the further from the poles the northern lights reach. Kp 0–2 is a quiet night; Kp 5 and above is a geomagnetic storm.
- Kp 0–2 Quiet next 24 h eye in Swan River camera in Swan River Only under the auroral oval: northern Norway, Swedish and Finnish Lapland, Iceland, Alaska, northern Canada.
- Kp 3 Unsettled Bright in the Arctic; low on the horizon in central Scandinavia and southern Iceland.
- Kp 4 Active Overhead in the Arctic; low in the north from southern Norway, Sweden, Finland and northern Scotland.
- Kp 5 Minor storm (G1) Scotland, southern Scandinavia, the Baltic states, the northern US states and southern Canada.
- Kp 6 Moderate storm (G2) Northern England, Denmark, northern Germany and Poland, the US Midwest — often clearer in photos than to the eye.
- Kp 7 Strong storm (G3) Most of the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Czechia; red glow in photos from France and the northern Alps.
- Kp 8 Severe storm (G4) Central Europe to the eye; red sky in photos from northern Italy, Spain, the Balkans and Turkey's Black Sea coast.
- Kp 9 Extreme storm (G5) Seen across Europe and the US; in photos as far south as the Mediterranean, Turkey and North Africa (May 2024).
Light pollution
Suburban sky. Noticeable sky glow. Bright displays are visible, but driving out of town makes a clear difference.
A noticeably darker area starts about 5 km to the south-west. Open in OpenStreetMap
Estimate from NASA VIIRS night-light data (sky-glow model within 50 km). Check access and private land before you go.
Hills and mountains
The horizon towards the north is open (terrain below 0.5°), so low aurora is not blocked.
From elevation data (AWS Terrain Tiles) along seven lines of sight up to 30 km.
Best months to see the aurora in Swan River
Share of nights 2005–2025 that were dark, active enough here and mostly clear.
August has been the best month (53% of nights), followed by September (52%).
| Month | Good nights | Clear nights | Darkness | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September | 52% | 61% | 8.8 h | 7° / 19°C |
| October | 39% | 45% | 10.8 h | -1° / 9°C |
| November | 25% | 33% | 12.5 h | -10° / -2°C |
| December | 40% | 53% | 13.1 h | -19° / -11°C |
| January | 46% | 53% | 12.8 h | -22° / -12°C |
| February | 51% | 58% | 11.4 h | -22° / -11°C |
| March | 44% | 51% | 9.5 h | -13° / -2°C |
| April | 44% | 53% | 7.3 h | -3° / 8°C |
Aurora nights in Swan River since 1995
Nights when Kp reached 4.7 or more while it was dark here.
Most recent strong nights
- 4 October 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 3 October 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 7 September 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 3 July 2026 · Kp 7.0
- 24 June 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 18 April 2026 · Kp 5.3
- 17 April 2026 · Kp 5.3
- 2 April 2026 · Kp 5.3
Practical information
- Nearest airport
- Dauphin Barker Airport (YDN) · 140 km
- Typical low / high in August
- 12° / 24°C
- What to wear
- Cool nights: layers, a windproof jacket, hat and gloves for standing still outside. Full clothing guide
- Emergency number
- 911
- Winter driving
- Rules are provincial: Québec requires winter tyres (mountain-snowflake symbol or studded) on Québec-registered vehicles Dec 1–Mar 15, and BC requires winter tyres or chains on signed routes Oct 1–Mar 31 (to Apr 30 on mountain passes/high-snowfall routes); road conditions via 511 Yukon (511yukon.ca), DriveNWT (drivenwt.ca), 511 Alberta, Manitoba 511 (manitoba511.ca) and DriveBC. Road conditions
- Access to land
- There is no national right to roam; private land requires the owner's permission, while national/provincial parks and Crown land are generally accessible subject to park rules, which vary by province and territory.
- Official space-weather service
- Space Weather Canada (Natural Resources Canada)
- Weather service
- Environment and Climate Change Canada (weather.gc.ca)
Questions and answers
What Kp do you need to see the aurora in Swan River?
From Swan River the aurora is visible on most active nights — first low to the north, from about Kp 1.
Which way should I look for the aurora in Swan River?
Face north (about 8° from true north). At Kp 1 the lower edge of the aurora sits roughly 11° above the horizon; stronger activity lifts it higher and further across the sky.
What is the best month to see the aurora in Swan River?
Over 2005–2025, August gave the best odds in Swan River (53% of nights dark, active enough and mostly clear), followed by September (52%).
When is the aurora season in Swan River?
Swan River gets dark enough for the aurora all year round, though the long winter nights give the most hours to watch.
Is there much light pollution in Swan River?
Noticeable sky glow. Bright displays are visible, but driving out of town makes a clear difference. A noticeably darker area starts about 5 km to the south-west.
When was the aurora last possible in Swan River?
Activity last reached storm level (Kp 5 or more) during darkness in Swan River on 4 October 2026 (Kp 5.0) — 917 such nights since 1995. Here the aurora also appears on many quieter nights.
Also covered by this forecast
Villages and districts around Swan River share its forecast: within a few kilometres the sky, the Kp needed and the best direction are the same.
- Bowsman 15 km
- Minitonas 16 km
- Benito 29 km
- Whitebeech 30 km
- Renwer 31 km
- Birch River 34 km