Manitoba, CanadaMagnetic latitude 58.2°Population 3,027264 m above sea level
Northern lights in Carman
From Carman the aurora is visible on most active nights — first low to the north, from about Kp 2.
Right now
It is still light here. Darkness starts at 19:48.
Latest measured half-hour activity worldwide: Hp30 1.7.
Updates every minute while this page is open. Ground data: GFZ Potsdam Hp30 index (CC BY 4.0).
Tonight in one minute
Not tonight
- Solar activity Too weak: Kp – expected, 2 needed here.
- Sky Mostly clear (11% cloud).
- Darkness Dark from 19:48 to 06:47.
What to do: Not tonight — your next chance is shown just below.
- Detailed forecast Fri 16 2 Good chance · Kp 2
- Sat 17 1.7 Unlikely · Kp 1.7
- Sun 18 1.7 Photos only · Kp 1.7
- 27-day trend Mon 19 2 Good chance · Kp 2
- Tue 20 3 Good chance · Kp 3
- Wed 21 4 Good chance · Kp 4
- Thu 22 4 Possible · Kp 4
- Fri 23 3 Possible · Kp 3
- Sat 24 2 Possible · Kp 2
- Sun 25 2 Possible · Kp 2
- Mon 26 2 Possible · Kp 2
- Tue 27 2 Possible · Kp 2
- Wed 28 2 Possible · Kp 2
- Thu 29 2 Good chance · Kp 2
- Fri 30 5 Good chance · Kp 5
- Sat 31 5 Good chance · Kp 5
- Sun 1 3 Good chance · Kp 3
- Mon 2 2 Good chance · Kp 2
- Tue 3 2 Good chance · Kp 2
- Wed 4 2 Good chance · Kp 2
- Thu 5 3 Good chance · Kp 3
- Fri 6 3 Good chance · Kp 3
Saturday 17 October — Good chance · Kp 2 · best around 00:30 · Forecast cloud: 11%. · Reliability: good
Each box is one night: the colour shows the chance, the number the expected Kp. Tap a night for details.
📅 Add these nights to your calendar — it updates itself (.ics)
How far ahead can the northern lights be forecast?
- Minutes to an hour: satellites 1.5 million km away measure the solar wind before it reaches Earth. This is the surest warning — the “Right now” box uses it.
- 1–3 days: when the Sun throws out a cloud of particles, it takes one to three days to arrive. NOAA's 3-hourly forecast covers these nights; the timing can still be off by a few hours.
- 4–27 days: the Sun turns once every 27 days, and regions that disturbed Earth's field last time often do it again. NOAA's 27-day outlook gives this rough trend — new eruptions are not in it yet.
Tonight
Updated 19:06 local time
Unlikely
Best around 19:00. Forecast max Kp – (this place needs 2), average cloud 11%.
- Dark enough
- 19:48 – 06:47
- Sunset
- 18:39 · sunrise 07:56
- Moon
- 35% · ↑ 14:36 · ↓ 21:51
- Kp neededKp index: a 0–9 measure of geomagnetic activity. The higher it is, the further from the poles the aurora reaches.
- Kp 2
- Kp for photos
- In photos: from Kp 0.3 (a red glow low in the north).
- Look towards
- north (6°)
Cloud layers and weather
Low cloud blocks the aurora completely. Thin high cloud often still lets a bright aurora shine through, so a sky with only high cloud is worth a look.
| Time | Fri, 19 | Fri, 22 | Sat, 01 | Sat, 04 | Sat, 19 | Sat, 22 | Sun, 01 | Sun, 04 | Sun, 19 | Sun, 22 | Mon, 01 | Mon, 04 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low cloud | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Mid cloud | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| High cloud | 10% | 0% | 5% | 0% | 93% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Temperature | 6 °C | 5 °C | 4 °C | 3 °C | 12 °C | 9 °C | 9 °C | 9 °C | 12 °C | 10 °C | 9 °C | 7 °C |
| Feels like | 2 °C | -1 °C | -1 °C | -1 °C | 8 °C | 5 °C | 5 °C | 3 °C | 8 °C | 6 °C | 4 °C | 3 °C |
| Wind | 4 m/s | 6 m/s | 5 m/s | 3 m/s | 4 m/s | 5 m/s | 6 m/s | 7 m/s | 3 m/s | 3 m/s | 3 m/s | 3 m/s |
| Visibility | 28 km | 27 km | 26 km | 24 km | 31 km | 29 km | 25 km | 28 km | 24 km | 24 km | 24 km | 24 km |
Cloud layers and weather: Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0).
Score = activity (NOAA Kp and OVATION) × clear sky (MET Norway) × darkness × moonlight. Methodology
Seeing it right now?
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What you would see from Carman
Facing north. Bands show where the aurora sits at two activity levels.
| Kp | What you see | Lower edge | Ray tops | Distance to the aurora |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Visible to the north | 10° | 20° | 478 km |
| 3 | Visible to the north | 21° | 36° | 256 km |
| 4 | Visible to the north | 72° | 80° | 33 km |
| 5 | Overhead and all around | – | – | – |
| 6 | Overhead, and also to the south | – | – | – |
| 7 | Overhead, and also to the south | – | – | – |
| 8 | Overhead, and also to the south | – | – | – |
| 9 | Overhead, and also to the south | – | – | – |
The Kp scale in plain words
Kp is a 0–9 score for how strongly the Earth's magnetic field is being shaken by the solar wind. The higher it goes, the further from the poles the northern lights reach. Kp 0–2 is a quiet night; Kp 5 and above is a geomagnetic storm.
- Kp 0–2 Quiet eye in Carman camera in Carman Only under the auroral oval: northern Norway, Swedish and Finnish Lapland, Iceland, Alaska, northern Canada.
- Kp 3 Unsettled Bright in the Arctic; low on the horizon in central Scandinavia and southern Iceland.
- Kp 4 Active Overhead in the Arctic; low in the north from southern Norway, Sweden, Finland and northern Scotland.
- Kp 5 Minor storm (G1) Scotland, southern Scandinavia, the Baltic states, the northern US states and southern Canada.
- Kp 6 Moderate storm (G2) Northern England, Denmark, northern Germany and Poland, the US Midwest — often clearer in photos than to the eye.
- Kp 7 Strong storm (G3) Most of the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Czechia; red glow in photos from France and the northern Alps.
- Kp 8 Severe storm (G4) Central Europe to the eye; red sky in photos from northern Italy, Spain, the Balkans and Turkey's Black Sea coast.
- Kp 9 Extreme storm (G5) Seen across Europe and the US; in photos as far south as the Mediterranean, Turkey and North Africa (May 2024).
Light pollution
Rural to suburban. Some sky glow from nearby lights. Moderate displays are fine; faint ones are easier a few kilometres out.
A noticeably darker area starts about 5 km to the south-east. Open in OpenStreetMap
Estimate from NASA VIIRS night-light data (sky-glow model within 50 km). Check access and private land before you go.
Hills and mountains
The horizon towards the north is open (terrain below 0.0°), so low aurora is not blocked.
From elevation data (AWS Terrain Tiles) along seven lines of sight up to 30 km.
Best months to see the aurora in Carman
Share of nights 2005–2025 that were dark, active enough here and mostly clear.
February has been the best month (46% of nights), followed by September (42%).
| Month | Good nights | Clear nights | Darkness | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September | 42% | 69% | 9.0 h | 9° / 21°C |
| October | 35% | 53% | 10.8 h | 1° / 12°C |
| November | 24% | 42% | 12.4 h | -7° / 2°C |
| December | 27% | 51% | 13.1 h | -16° / -7°C |
| January | 34% | 58% | 12.8 h | -19° / -10°C |
| February | 46% | 69% | 11.4 h | -19° / -8°C |
| March | 34% | 57% | 9.6 h | -9° / 2°C |
| April | 29% | 57% | 7.8 h | -1° / 11°C |
Aurora nights in Carman since 1995
Nights when Kp reached 4.7 or more while it was dark here.
Most recent strong nights
- 4 October 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 3 October 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 7 September 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 3 July 2026 · Kp 7.0
- 24 June 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 18 April 2026 · Kp 5.3
- 17 April 2026 · Kp 5.3
- 2 April 2026 · Kp 5.3
Practical information
- Nearest airport
- Winnipeg / James Armstrong Richardson International Airport (YWG) · 71 km
- Typical low / high in February
- -19° / -8°C
- What to wear
- Arctic cold: wool base layers, insulated jacket and trousers, warm boots, hat and mittens. Full clothing guide
- Emergency number
- 911
- Winter driving
- Rules are provincial: Québec requires winter tyres (mountain-snowflake symbol or studded) on Québec-registered vehicles Dec 1–Mar 15, and BC requires winter tyres or chains on signed routes Oct 1–Mar 31 (to Apr 30 on mountain passes/high-snowfall routes); road conditions via 511 Yukon (511yukon.ca), DriveNWT (drivenwt.ca), 511 Alberta, Manitoba 511 (manitoba511.ca) and DriveBC. Road conditions
- Access to land
- There is no national right to roam; private land requires the owner's permission, while national/provincial parks and Crown land are generally accessible subject to park rules, which vary by province and territory.
- Official space-weather service
- Space Weather Canada (Natural Resources Canada)
- Weather service
- Environment and Climate Change Canada (weather.gc.ca)
Questions and answers
What Kp do you need to see the aurora in Carman?
From Carman the aurora is visible on most active nights — first low to the north, from about Kp 2.
Which way should I look for the aurora in Carman?
Face north (about 6° from true north). At Kp 2 the lower edge of the aurora sits roughly 10° above the horizon; stronger activity lifts it higher and further across the sky.
What is the best month to see the aurora in Carman?
Over 2005–2025, February gave the best odds in Carman (46% of nights dark, active enough and mostly clear), followed by September (42%).
When is the aurora season in Carman?
Carman gets dark enough for the aurora all year round, though the long winter nights give the most hours to watch.
Is there much light pollution in Carman?
Some sky glow from nearby lights. Moderate displays are fine; faint ones are easier a few kilometres out. A noticeably darker area starts about 5 km to the south-east.
When was the aurora last possible in Carman?
Activity last reached storm level (Kp 5 or more) during darkness in Carman on 4 October 2026 (Kp 5.0) — 920 such nights since 1995. Here the aurora also appears on many quieter nights.
Also covered by this forecast
Villages and districts around Carman share its forecast: within a few kilometres the sky, the Kp needed and the best direction are the same.
- Dufferin 6 km
- Elm Creek 20 km
- Sperling 21 km