Manitoba, CanadaMagnetic latitude 67.3°4 m above sea level
Northern lights in Churchill
Churchill sits right under the auroral oval: on clear, dark nights the aurora is often overhead, even when activity is quiet. Clouds matter far more than the Kp number here.
Right now
It is still light here. Darkness starts at 19:29.
Latest measured half-hour activity worldwide: Hp30 0.3.
Updates every minute while this page is open. Ground data: GFZ Potsdam Hp30 index (CC BY 4.0).
Tonight in one minute
Not tonight
- Solar activity Strong enough: Kp 2.7 expected, 0 needed here.
- Sky Overcast (99% cloud).
- Darkness Dark from 19:29 to 06:35.
What to do: Not tonight — your next chance is shown just below.
Monday 19 October — Possible · Kp 4.7 · best around 23:30 · Forecast cloud: 66%. · Reliability: medium
Each box is one night: the colour shows the chance, the number the expected Kp. Tap a night for details.
📅 Add these nights to your calendar — it updates itself (.ics)
How far ahead can the northern lights be forecast?
- Minutes to an hour: satellites 1.5 million km away measure the solar wind before it reaches Earth. This is the surest warning — the “Right now” box uses it.
- 1–3 days: when the Sun throws out a cloud of particles, it takes one to three days to arrive. NOAA's 3-hourly forecast covers these nights; the timing can still be off by a few hours.
- 4–27 days: the Sun turns once every 27 days, and regions that disturbed Earth's field last time often do it again. NOAA's 27-day outlook gives this rough trend — new eruptions are not in it yet.
Tonight
Updated 15:31 local time
Unlikely
Best around 06:00. Forecast max Kp 2.7 (this place needs 0), average cloud 99%.
- Dark enough
- 19:29 – 06:35
- Sunset
- 18:01 · sunrise 08:03
- Moon
- 52% · ↑ 16:29 · ↓ 22:51
- Kp neededKp index: a 0–9 measure of geomagnetic activity. The higher it is, the further from the poles the aurora reaches.
- Kp 0
- Look towards
- north (4°)
Cloud layers and weather
Low cloud blocks the aurora completely. Thin high cloud often still lets a bright aurora shine through, so a sky with only high cloud is worth a look.
| Time | Sun, 19 | Sun, 22 | Mon, 01 | Mon, 04 | Mon, 19 | Mon, 22 | Tue, 01 | Tue, 04 | Tue, 19 | Tue, 22 | Wed, 01 | Wed, 04 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low cloud | 100% | 100% | 100% | 52% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 84% | 42% | 0% | 0% |
| Mid cloud | 100% | 100% | 100% | 52% | 34% | 65% | 92% | 100% | 37% | 13% | 0% | 8% |
| High cloud | 59% | 50% | 30% | 13% | 0% | 20% | 46% | 82% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Temperature | 2 °C | 2 °C | 2 °C | 1 °C | 2 °C | 1 °C | 1 °C | 1 °C | 2 °C | 2 °C | 1 °C | 0 °C |
| Feels like | -5 °C | -5 °C | -4 °C | -4 °C | -2 °C | -2 °C | -2 °C | -2 °C | -1 °C | -2 °C | -3 °C | -4 °C |
| Wind | 11 m/s | 10 m/s | 7 m/s | 4 m/s | 4 m/s | 3 m/s | 3 m/s | 3 m/s | 3 m/s | 3 m/s | 3 m/s | 3 m/s |
Cloud layers and weather: Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0).
Clearer skies nearby tonight
Tonight's cloud forecast is similar in every direction within 100 km (99% here), so driving is unlikely to help.
MET Norway forecast at 24 points within 100 km, averaged over the dark hours. Check roads and conditions before driving.
Score = activity (NOAA Kp and OVATION) × clear sky (MET Norway) × darkness × moonlight. Methodology
Weather in Churchill
The aurora only shows through clear skies, so the weather matters as much as the Kp index. Here is the general forecast for Churchill: temperature, wind and the chance of rain for the coming days.
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Live webcams near Churchill
Check the sky for yourself: public cameras within 300 km. They open on the camera owner's website.
These cameras belong to their owners — we only link to them. Most show little in daylight or under cloud, and some pause in summer.
What you would see from Churchill
Facing north. Bands show where the aurora sits at two activity levels.
| Kp | What you see | Lower edge | Ray tops | Distance to the aurora |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Overhead and all around | – | – | – |
| 2 | Overhead, and also to the south | – | – | – |
| 3 | Overhead, and also to the south | – | – | – |
| 4 | Overhead, and also to the south | – | – | – |
| 5 | Overhead, and also to the south | – | – | – |
| 6 | Overhead, and also to the south | – | – | – |
| 7 | Overhead, and also to the south | – | – | – |
| 8 | Overhead, and also to the south | – | – | – |
| 9 | Overhead, and also to the south | – | – | – |
The Kp scale in plain words
Kp is a 0–9 score for how strongly the Earth's magnetic field is being shaken by the solar wind. The higher it goes, the further from the poles the northern lights reach. Kp 0–2 is a quiet night; Kp 5 and above is a geomagnetic storm.
- Kp 0–2 Quiet eye in Churchill Only under the auroral oval: northern Norway, Swedish and Finnish Lapland, Iceland, Alaska, northern Canada.
- Kp 3 Unsettled next 24 h Bright in the Arctic; low on the horizon in central Scandinavia and southern Iceland.
- Kp 4 Active Overhead in the Arctic; low in the north from southern Norway, Sweden, Finland and northern Scotland.
- Kp 5 Minor storm (G1) Scotland, southern Scandinavia, the Baltic states, the northern US states and southern Canada.
- Kp 6 Moderate storm (G2) Northern England, Denmark, northern Germany and Poland, the US Midwest — often clearer in photos than to the eye.
- Kp 7 Strong storm (G3) Most of the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Czechia; red glow in photos from France and the northern Alps.
- Kp 8 Severe storm (G4) Central Europe to the eye; red sky in photos from northern Italy, Spain, the Balkans and Turkey's Black Sea coast.
- Kp 9 Extreme storm (G5) Seen across Europe and the US; in photos as far south as the Mediterranean, Turkey and North Africa (May 2024).
Light pollution
Rural to suburban. Some sky glow from nearby lights. Moderate displays are fine; faint ones are easier a few kilometres out.
A noticeably darker area starts about 5 km to the south-east. Open in OpenStreetMap
Estimate from NASA VIIRS night-light data (sky-glow model within 50 km). Check access and private land before you go.
Hills and mountains
The horizon towards the north is open (terrain below 0.2°), so low aurora is not blocked.
From elevation data (AWS Terrain Tiles) along seven lines of sight up to 30 km.
Best months to see the aurora in Churchill
Share of nights 2005–2025 that were dark, active enough here and mostly clear.
February has been the best month (62% of nights), followed by January (58%).
| Month | Good nights | Clear nights | Darkness | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September | 19% | 19% | 7.9 h | 6° / 9°C |
| October | 9% | 9% | 10.8 h | 0° / 3°C |
| November | 4% | 4% | 12.8 h | -10° / -6°C |
| December | 48% | 48% | 14.0 h | -22° / -16°C |
| January | 58% | 58% | 13.3 h | -25° / -20°C |
| February | 62% | 62% | 11.5 h | -25° / -20°C |
| March | 47% | 47% | 9.1 h | -20° / -14°C |
| April | 30% | 30% | 5.8 h | -12° / -6°C |
Darkness through the year
- No full darkness (Sun 12° below the horizon) from 14 May to 29 July — the sky stays too bright for most auroras.
- Next new moon 9 November, next full moon 25 October. The darkest skies are in the week around new moon.
Aurora nights in Churchill since 1995
Nights when Kp reached 4.7 or more while it was dark here.
Most recent strong nights
- 4 October 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 3 October 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 7 September 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 18 April 2026 · Kp 5.3
- 17 April 2026 · Kp 5.3
- 2 April 2026 · Kp 5.3
- 1 April 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 24 March 2026 · Kp 5.0
Where to watch near Churchill
-
Churchill Northern Studies Centre
Research centre on the former rocket range east of town with a viewing dome and dark surroundings. · about 24 km · Open in OpenStreetMap
-
Cape Merry
Point at the mouth of the Churchill River with open views over Hudson Bay, just outside town. · about 3 km · Open in OpenStreetMap
-
Miss Piggy plane wreck
Well-known landmark east of town, away from street lights, often used as a photo foreground. · about 8 km · Open in OpenStreetMap
Local knowledge
- Churchill sits under the auroral oval on Hudson Bay; Travel Manitoba says the lights appear on average about 300 nights a year.
- January to March usually has the clearest skies and is the main aurora season; displays are less frequent in late August and early September.
- There are no roads into Churchill, which lies about 1,000 km north of Winnipeg; arrive by air or by train.
- Heated aurora domes and guided night tours let you watch away from town lights without walking outside unprotected.
- The Churchill Northern Studies Centre, 23 km east of town, runs aurora and astronomy learning programs and has a viewing dome.
Churchill is polar bear country, especially October to November; do not walk outside town or along the shore at night, stay near a vehicle or building, and report bears to the Polar Bear Alert line (204-675-2327).
If a bear is close, back away while facing it and do not run; get into a vehicle or building as quickly as possible.
Practical information
- Typical low / high in February
- -25° / -20°C
- What to wear
- Extreme cold: insulated boots, down jacket, two layers of wool, face protection, chemical hand warmers. Full clothing guide
- Emergency number
- 911
- Winter driving
- Rules are provincial: Québec requires winter tyres (mountain-snowflake symbol or studded) on Québec-registered vehicles Dec 1–Mar 15, and BC requires winter tyres or chains on signed routes Oct 1–Mar 31 (to Apr 30 on mountain passes/high-snowfall routes); road conditions via 511 Yukon (511yukon.ca), DriveNWT (drivenwt.ca), 511 Alberta, Manitoba 511 (manitoba511.ca) and DriveBC. Road conditions
- Access to land
- There is no national right to roam; private land requires the owner's permission, while national/provincial parks and Crown land are generally accessible subject to park rules, which vary by province and territory.
- Official space-weather service
- Space Weather Canada (Natural Resources Canada)
- Weather service
- Environment and Climate Change Canada (weather.gc.ca)
Questions and answers
What Kp do you need to see the aurora in Churchill?
Churchill sits right under the auroral oval: on clear, dark nights the aurora is often overhead, even when activity is quiet. Clouds matter far more than the Kp number here.
Which way should I look for the aurora in Churchill?
Around Churchill the aurora is often right overhead. Start by facing north, but look up and all around — in strong storms it can fill the whole sky and even appear behind you.
What is the best month to see the aurora in Churchill?
Over 2005–2025, February gave the best odds in Churchill (62% of nights dark, active enough and mostly clear), followed by January (58%).
When is the aurora season in Churchill?
From 14 May to 29 July the sky in Churchill never gets dark enough. Outside that period the aurora can be seen whenever activity and clouds allow.
Is there much light pollution in Churchill?
Some sky glow from nearby lights. Moderate displays are fine; faint ones are easier a few kilometres out. A noticeably darker area starts about 5 km to the south-east.
When was the aurora last possible in Churchill?
Activity last reached storm level (Kp 5 or more) during darkness in Churchill on 4 October 2026 (Kp 5.0) — 829 such nights since 1995. Here the aurora also appears on many quieter nights.