Pärnu County, EstoniaMagnetic latitude 55.5°Population 1,45719 m above sea level
Northern lights in Lihula
Lihula needs an active night: from about Kp 3.3 the aurora appears low over the north horizon, and it rises higher as activity grows. Since 1995 that level (Kp 4.7) was reached during darkness here on 926 nights.
Right now
Activity is high enough here right now, but the sky is overcast (100 % cloud). Watch for gaps in the clouds and look north.
Magnetometer at Tartu (159 km away): low magnetic activity.
Updates every minute while this page is open. Ground data: FMI MIRACLE R-index (CC BY 4.0).
Tonight in one minute
Not tonight
- Solar activity Strong enough: Kp 4 expected, 3.3 needed here.
- Sky Overcast (100% cloud).
- Darkness Dark from 19:40 to 06:40.
What to do: Not tonight — your next chance is shown just below.
- Detailed forecast Fri 16 4 Possible · Kp 4
- Sat 17 2 Photos only · Kp 2
- Sun 18 1.7 Unlikely · Kp 1.7
- 27-day trend Mon 19 2 Photos only · Kp 2
- Tue 20 3 Photos only · Kp 3
- Wed 21 4 Good chance · Kp 4
- Thu 22 4 Possible · Kp 4
- Fri 23 4 Possible · Kp 4
- Sat 24 3 Unlikely · Kp 3
- Sun 25 2 Unlikely · Kp 2
- Mon 26 2 Unlikely · Kp 2
- Tue 27 2 Unlikely · Kp 2
- Wed 28 2 Unlikely · Kp 2
- Thu 29 2 Unlikely · Kp 2
- Fri 30 5 Possible · Kp 5
- Sat 31 5 Possible · Kp 5
- Sun 1 5 Possible · Kp 5
- Mon 2 3 Unlikely · Kp 3
- Tue 3 2 Unlikely · Kp 2
- Wed 4 2 Unlikely · Kp 2
- Thu 5 3 Unlikely · Kp 3
- Fri 6 3 Unlikely · Kp 3
- Sat 7 3 Unlikely · Kp 3
Thursday 22 October — Good chance · Kp 4 · best around 00:30 · Forecast cloud: 41%. · Reliability: low (rough trend)
Each box is one night: the colour shows the chance, the number the expected Kp. Tap a night for details.
📅 Add these nights to your calendar — it updates itself (.ics)
How far ahead can the northern lights be forecast?
- Minutes to an hour: satellites 1.5 million km away measure the solar wind before it reaches Earth. This is the surest warning — the “Right now” box uses it.
- 1–3 days: when the Sun throws out a cloud of particles, it takes one to three days to arrive. NOAA's 3-hourly forecast covers these nights; the timing can still be off by a few hours.
- 4–27 days: the Sun turns once every 27 days, and regions that disturbed Earth's field last time often do it again. NOAA's 27-day outlook gives this rough trend — new eruptions are not in it yet.
Tonight
Updated 02:13 local time
Unlikely
Best around 02:00. Forecast max Kp 4.0 (this place needs 3.3), average cloud 100%.
- Dark enough
- 19:40 – 06:40
- Sunset
- 18:13 · sunrise 08:07
- Moon
- 34% · ↑ 16:16 · ↓ 21:06
- Kp neededKp index: a 0–9 measure of geomagnetic activity. The higher it is, the further from the poles the aurora reaches.
- Kp 3.3
- Kp for photos
- In photos: from Kp 1.7 (a red glow low in the north).
- Look towards
- north (0°)
Cloud layers and weather
Low cloud blocks the aurora completely. Thin high cloud often still lets a bright aurora shine through, so a sky with only high cloud is worth a look.
| Time | Sat, 02 | Sat, 05 | Sat, 20 | Sat, 23 | Sun, 02 | Sun, 05 | Sun, 20 | Sun, 23 | Mon, 02 | Mon, 05 | Mon, 20 | Mon, 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low cloud | 100% | 100% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 27% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| Mid cloud | 0% | 87% | 100% | 100% | 97% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| High cloud | 45% | 12% | 88% | 23% | 0% | 0% | 98% | 94% | 88% | 90% | 3% | 0% |
| Temperature | 12 °C | 12 °C | 10 °C | 9 °C | 8 °C | 6 °C | 5 °C | 3 °C | 2 °C | 1 °C | 3 °C | 1 °C |
| Feels like | 10 °C | 10 °C | 8 °C | 7 °C | 6 °C | 4 °C | 3 °C | 1 °C | 0 °C | -1 °C | -1 °C | -2 °C |
| Wind | 4 m/s | 4 m/s | 4 m/s | 3 m/s | 3 m/s | 2 m/s | 1 m/s | 1 m/s | 1 m/s | 1 m/s | 2 m/s | 2 m/s |
| Visibility | 32 km | 38 km | 50 km | 18 km | 50 km | 48 km | 50 km | 48 km | 48 km | 44 km | 50 km | 50 km |
Cloud layers and weather: Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0).
Score = activity (NOAA Kp and OVATION) × clear sky (MET Norway) × darkness × moonlight. Methodology
Seeing it right now?
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What you would see from Lihula
Facing north. Bands show where the aurora sits at two activity levels.
| Kp | What you see | Lower edge | Ray tops | Distance to the aurora |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Faint glow, mostly on camera | 4° | 11° | 778 km |
| 3 | Faint glow, mostly on camera | 8° | 17° | 556 km |
| 4 | Visible to the north | 16° | 29° | 334 km |
| 5 | Visible to the north | 43° | 60° | 111 km |
| 6 | Overhead and all around | – | – | – |
| 7 | Overhead and all around | – | – | – |
| 8 | Overhead, and also to the south | – | – | – |
| 9 | Overhead, and also to the south | – | – | – |
The Kp scale in plain words
Kp is a 0–9 score for how strongly the Earth's magnetic field is being shaken by the solar wind. The higher it goes, the further from the poles the northern lights reach. Kp 0–2 is a quiet night; Kp 5 and above is a geomagnetic storm.
- Kp 0–2 Quiet camera in Lihula Only under the auroral oval: northern Norway, Swedish and Finnish Lapland, Iceland, Alaska, northern Canada.
- Kp 3 Unsettled eye in Lihula Bright in the Arctic; low on the horizon in central Scandinavia and southern Iceland.
- Kp 4 Active next 24 h Overhead in the Arctic; low in the north from southern Norway, Sweden, Finland and northern Scotland.
- Kp 5 Minor storm (G1) Scotland, southern Scandinavia, the Baltic states, the northern US states and southern Canada.
- Kp 6 Moderate storm (G2) Northern England, Denmark, northern Germany and Poland, the US Midwest — often clearer in photos than to the eye.
- Kp 7 Strong storm (G3) Most of the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Czechia; red glow in photos from France and the northern Alps.
- Kp 8 Severe storm (G4) Central Europe to the eye; red sky in photos from northern Italy, Spain, the Balkans and Turkey's Black Sea coast.
- Kp 9 Extreme storm (G5) Seen across Europe and the US; in photos as far south as the Mediterranean, Turkey and North Africa (May 2024).
Light pollution
Pristine dark sky. Almost no artificial light: faint aurora and the Milky Way are easy to see.
Estimate from NASA VIIRS night-light data (sky-glow model within 50 km). Check access and private land before you go.
Hills and mountains
Terrain is not modelled for this place.
From elevation data (AWS Terrain Tiles) along seven lines of sight up to 30 km.
Best months to see the aurora in Lihula
Share of nights 2005–2025 that were dark, active enough here and mostly clear.
September has been the best month (11% of nights), followed by March (10%).
| Month | Good nights | Clear nights | Darkness | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September | 11% | 47% | 7.9 h | 11° / 16°C |
| October | 7% | 30% | 10.8 h | 6° / 10°C |
| November | 2% | 13% | 12.8 h | 2° / 5°C |
| December | 2% | 9% | 14.0 h | -2° / 1°C |
| January | 3% | 12% | 13.3 h | -5° / -1°C |
| February | 4% | 18% | 11.5 h | -6° / -2°C |
| March | 10% | 41% | 9.1 h | -3° / 2°C |
| April | 8% | 56% | 6.0 h | 1° / 8°C |
Darkness through the year
- No full darkness (Sun 12° below the horizon) from 16 May to 27 July — the sky stays too bright for most auroras.
- Next new moon 9 November, next full moon 26 October. The darkest skies are in the week around new moon.
Aurora nights in Lihula since 1995
Nights when Kp reached 4.7 or more while it was dark here.
Most recent strong nights
- 10 October 2026 · Kp 7.0
- 4 October 2026 · Kp 5.7
- 18 August 2026 · Kp 5.3
- 5 June 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 15 May 2026 · Kp 6.0
- 20 April 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 3 April 2026 · Kp 5.7
- 2 April 2026 · Kp 5.0
Practical information
- Nearest airport
- Pärnu Airport (EPU) · 47 km
Lennart Meri Tallinn Airport (TLL) · 99 km - Typical low / high in September
- 11° / 16°C
- What to wear
- Cool nights: layers, a windproof jacket, hat and gloves for standing still outside. Full clothing guide
- Emergency number
- 112
- Winter driving
- Winter tyres are mandatory 1 Dec – 1 Mar; studded tyres allowed 15 Oct – 31 Mar (to 30 Apr if winter conditions persist), and since Dec 2022 non-studded winter tyres must be Nordic-type. Road conditions: Transpordiamet's Tark Tee portal (https://www.tarktee.ee). Road conditions
- Access to land
- Estonia's everyman's right (igaüheõigus, codified in the Environmental Code) lets you be on unfenced, unposted land day and night regardless of ownership; fenced or signposted private land requires the owner's permission. RMK (State Forest Management Centre) sites are open to the public.
- Weather service
- Estonian Weather Service (Riigi Ilmateenistus)
Questions and answers
What Kp do you need to see the aurora in Lihula?
Lihula needs an active night: from about Kp 3.3 the aurora appears low over the north horizon, and it rises higher as activity grows.
Which way should I look for the aurora in Lihula?
Face north (about 0° from true north). At Kp 3.3 the lower edge of the aurora sits roughly 16° above the horizon; stronger activity lifts it higher and further across the sky.
What is the best month to see the aurora in Lihula?
Over 2005–2025, September gave the best odds in Lihula (11% of nights dark, active enough and mostly clear), followed by March (10%).
When is the aurora season in Lihula?
From 16 May to 27 July the sky in Lihula never gets dark enough. Outside that period the aurora can be seen whenever activity and clouds allow.
Is there much light pollution in Lihula?
Almost no artificial light: faint aurora and the Milky Way are easy to see.
When was the aurora last possible in Lihula?
Activity last reached storm level (Kp 5 or more) during darkness in Lihula on 10 October 2026 (Kp 7.0) — 926 such nights since 1995. Here the aurora also appears on many quieter nights.
Also covered by this forecast
Villages and districts around Lihula share its forecast: within a few kilometres the sky, the Kp needed and the best direction are the same.
- Parivere 1 km
- Lihula linn 1 km
- Lihula Linn 1 km
- Valuste 2 km
- Sipa 2 km
- Ojaküla 2 km
- Valuste küla 2 km
- Hälvati 3 km
- Alaküla 3 km
- Seljaküla 3 km
- Tuudi-Jõeääre 4 km
- Penijõe 4 km
- Hälvati küla 4 km
- Nurme küla 4 km
- Alaküla 4 km
- Kiriku 5 km
- Alakülaääre 5 km
- Penijõe küla 5 km
- Pagasi küla 5 km
- Parivere küla 5 km
- Tuudi 6 km
- Peanse 6 km
- Pagasi 6 km
- Kloostri 6 km
- Äärenurga 6 km
- Suitsu 6 km
- Kalda 6 km
- Sookatse 6 km
- Soovälja küla 6 km
- Peanse küla 6 km
- Kirikuküla 6 km
- Lautna küla 6 km
- Seli 7 km
- Lautna-Rannu 7 km
- Petaaluse 7 km
- Lautna 7 km
- Kunila 7 km
- Kelu 7 km
- Soovälja 7 km
- Seli küla 7 km