Dobele Municipality, LatviaMagnetic latitude 53.2°Population 3,27344 m above sea level
Northern lights in Tērvete
Tērvete needs an active night: from about Kp 4.7 the aurora appears low over the north horizon, and it rises higher as activity grows. Since 1995 that level (Kp 4.7) was reached during darkness here on 963 nights.
Right now
Quiet right now (Kp 0.0).
Magnetometer at Tartu (270 km away): low magnetic activity.
Updates every minute while this page is open. Ground data: FMI MIRACLE R-index (CC BY 4.0).
Tonight in one minute
Not tonight
- Solar activity Enough for a camera: Kp 4 expected, 3 needed for photos, 4.7 for the eye.
- Sky Overcast (98% cloud).
- Darkness Dark from 19:41 to 06:42.
What to do: Not tonight — your next chance is shown just below.
- Detailed forecast Fri 16 4 Unlikely · Kp 4
- Sat 17 2 No · Kp 2
- Sun 18 1.7 No · Kp 1.7
- Mon 19 2.7 No · Kp 2.7
- 27-day trend Tue 20 3 Photos only · Kp 3
- Wed 21 4 Photos only · Kp 4
- Thu 22 4 Unlikely · Kp 4
- Fri 23 4 Unlikely · Kp 4
- Sat 24 3 Unlikely · Kp 3
- Sun 25 2 No · Kp 2
- Mon 26 2 No · Kp 2
- Tue 27 2 No · Kp 2
- Wed 28 2 No · Kp 2
- Thu 29 2 No · Kp 2
- Fri 30 5 Good chance · Kp 5
- Sat 31 5 Good chance · Kp 5
- Sun 1 5 Possible · Kp 5
- Mon 2 3 Unlikely · Kp 3
- Tue 3 2 No · Kp 2
- Wed 4 2 No · Kp 2
- Thu 5 3 Unlikely · Kp 3
- Fri 6 3 Unlikely · Kp 3
- Sat 7 3 Unlikely · Kp 3
Friday 30 October — Good chance · Kp 5 · best around 23:30 · No cloud forecast this far ahead; in October about 42% of nights are clear here. · Reliability: low (rough trend)
Each box is one night: the colour shows the chance, the number the expected Kp. Tap a night for details.
📅 Add these nights to your calendar — it updates itself (.ics)
How far ahead can the northern lights be forecast?
- Minutes to an hour: satellites 1.5 million km away measure the solar wind before it reaches Earth. This is the surest warning — the “Right now” box uses it.
- 1–3 days: when the Sun throws out a cloud of particles, it takes one to three days to arrive. NOAA's 3-hourly forecast covers these nights; the timing can still be off by a few hours.
- 4–27 days: the Sun turns once every 27 days, and regions that disturbed Earth's field last time often do it again. NOAA's 27-day outlook gives this rough trend — new eruptions are not in it yet.
Tonight
Updated 03:29 local time
Unlikely
Best around 03:00. Forecast max Kp 4.0 (this place needs 4.7), average cloud 98%.
- Dark enough
- 19:41 – 06:42
- Sunset
- 18:20 · sunrise 08:04
- Moon
- 35% · ↑ 15:52 · ↓ 21:34
- Kp neededKp index: a 0–9 measure of geomagnetic activity. The higher it is, the further from the poles the aurora reaches.
- Kp 4.7
- Kp for photos
- In photos: from Kp 3 (a red glow low in the north).
- Look towards
- north (0°)
Cloud layers and weather
Low cloud blocks the aurora completely. Thin high cloud often still lets a bright aurora shine through, so a sky with only high cloud is worth a look.
| Time | Sat, 03 | Sat, 06 | Sat, 21 | Sun, 00 | Sun, 03 | Sun, 06 | Sun, 21 | Mon, 00 | Mon, 03 | Mon, 06 | Mon, 21 | Tue, 00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low cloud | 0% | 0% | 0% | 91% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Mid cloud | 2% | 0% | 93% | 71% | 21% | 27% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| High cloud | 100% | 25% | 99% | 88% | 99% | 4% | 0% | 60% | 77% | 63% | 0% | 0% |
| Temperature | 7 °C | 7 °C | 9 °C | 8 °C | 8 °C | 9 °C | 5 °C | 4 °C | 3 °C | 2 °C | 4 °C | 3 °C |
| Feels like | 4 °C | 4 °C | 8 °C | 7 °C | 6 °C | 6 °C | 3 °C | 1 °C | 0 °C | -1 °C | 0 °C | -1 °C |
| Wind | 3 m/s | 3 m/s | 1 m/s | 1 m/s | 3 m/s | 4 m/s | 2 m/s | 2 m/s | 2 m/s | 2 m/s | 3 m/s | 3 m/s |
| Visibility | 30 km | 30 km | 35 km | 26 km | 16 km | 7.6 km | 46 km | 43 km | 39 km | 35 km | 46 km | 43 km |
Cloud layers and weather: Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0).
Score = activity (NOAA Kp and OVATION) × clear sky (MET Norway) × darkness × moonlight. Methodology
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What you would see from Tērvete
Facing north. Bands show where the aurora sits at two activity levels.
| Kp | What you see | Lower edge | Ray tops | Distance to the aurora |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Below the horizon | 1° | 6° | 1,034 km |
| 3 | Faint glow, mostly on camera | 4° | 10° | 812 km |
| 4 | Faint glow, mostly on camera | 7° | 16° | 589 km |
| 5 | Visible to the north | 14° | 27° | 367 km |
| 6 | Visible to the north | 35° | 53° | 145 km |
| 7 | Overhead and all around | – | – | – |
| 8 | Overhead and all around | – | – | – |
| 9 | Overhead, and also to the south | – | – | – |
The Kp scale in plain words
Kp is a 0–9 score for how strongly the Earth's magnetic field is being shaken by the solar wind. The higher it goes, the further from the poles the northern lights reach. Kp 0–2 is a quiet night; Kp 5 and above is a geomagnetic storm.
- Kp 0–2 Quiet Only under the auroral oval: northern Norway, Swedish and Finnish Lapland, Iceland, Alaska, northern Canada.
- Kp 3 Unsettled camera in Tērvete Bright in the Arctic; low on the horizon in central Scandinavia and southern Iceland.
- Kp 4 Active next 24 h Overhead in the Arctic; low in the north from southern Norway, Sweden, Finland and northern Scotland.
- Kp 5 Minor storm (G1) eye in Tērvete Scotland, southern Scandinavia, the Baltic states, the northern US states and southern Canada.
- Kp 6 Moderate storm (G2) Northern England, Denmark, northern Germany and Poland, the US Midwest — often clearer in photos than to the eye.
- Kp 7 Strong storm (G3) Most of the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Czechia; red glow in photos from France and the northern Alps.
- Kp 8 Severe storm (G4) Central Europe to the eye; red sky in photos from northern Italy, Spain, the Balkans and Turkey's Black Sea coast.
- Kp 9 Extreme storm (G5) Seen across Europe and the US; in photos as far south as the Mediterranean, Turkey and North Africa (May 2024).
Light pollution
Pristine dark sky. Almost no artificial light: faint aurora and the Milky Way are easy to see.
Estimate from NASA VIIRS night-light data (sky-glow model within 50 km). Check access and private land before you go.
Hills and mountains
The horizon towards the north is open (terrain below 1.4°), so low aurora is not blocked.
From elevation data (AWS Terrain Tiles) along seven lines of sight up to 30 km.
Best months to see the aurora in Tērvete
Share of nights 2005–2025 that were dark, active enough here and mostly clear.
September has been the best month (6% of nights), followed by March (4%).
| Month | Good nights | Clear nights | Darkness | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September | 6% | 57% | 8.4 h | 9° / 18°C |
| October | 3% | 42% | 10.8 h | 4° / 11°C |
| November | 2% | 21% | 12.8 h | 0° / 4°C |
| December | 1% | 16% | 13.6 h | -4° / 0°C |
| January | 0.6% | 13% | 13.3 h | -7° / -2°C |
| February | 2% | 17% | 11.4 h | -7° / -1°C |
| March | 4% | 32% | 9.3 h | -4° / 4°C |
| April | 3% | 56% | 6.5 h | 1° / 11°C |
Darkness through the year
- No full darkness (Sun 12° below the horizon) from 26 May to 18 July — the sky stays too bright for most auroras.
- Next new moon 9 November, next full moon 26 October. The darkest skies are in the week around new moon.
Aurora nights in Tērvete since 1995
Nights when Kp reached 4.7 or more while it was dark here.
Most recent strong nights
- 10 October 2026 · Kp 7.0
- 4 October 2026 · Kp 5.7
- 18 August 2026 · Kp 5.3
- 5 June 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 15 May 2026 · Kp 6.0
- 4 May 2026 · Kp 6.0
- 20 April 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 3 April 2026 · Kp 5.7
Practical information
- Nearest airport
- Riga International Airport (RIX) · 61 km
- Typical low / high in September
- 9° / 18°C
- What to wear
- Cool nights: layers, a windproof jacket, hat and gloves for standing still outside. Full clothing guide
- Emergency number
- 112
- Winter driving
- Winter tyres are mandatory 1 Dec – 1 Mar for vehicles up to 3.5 t, and since 1 Oct 2024 they must carry the 3PMSF (mountain-snowflake) symbol (M+S only no longer qualifies); studded tyres allowed 1 Oct – 1 May. Road conditions: Latvian State Roads (Latvijas Valsts ceļi) driving-conditions map. Road conditions
- Access to land
- Latvia has no Nordic-style right to roam: private land may be off-limits without the owner's consent, but state forests managed by LVM (outside protected areas) are open to the public, including overnight stays; nature reserves and strict zones of protected areas are restricted.
- Weather service
- Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Centre (LVĢMC)
Questions and answers
What Kp do you need to see the aurora in Tērvete?
Tērvete needs an active night: from about Kp 4.7 the aurora appears low over the north horizon, and it rises higher as activity grows.
Which way should I look for the aurora in Tērvete?
Face north (about 0° from true north). At Kp 4.7 the lower edge of the aurora sits roughly 14° above the horizon; stronger activity lifts it higher and further across the sky.
What is the best month to see the aurora in Tērvete?
Over 2005–2025, September gave the best odds in Tērvete (6% of nights dark, active enough and mostly clear), followed by March (4%).
When is the aurora season in Tērvete?
From 26 May to 18 July the sky in Tērvete never gets dark enough. Outside that period the aurora can be seen whenever activity and clouds allow.
Is there much light pollution in Tērvete?
Almost no artificial light: faint aurora and the Milky Way are easy to see.
When was the aurora last possible in Tērvete?
The most recent night in our data when activity reached the level Tērvete needs, during darkness, was 10 October 2026 (Kp 7.0). It has happened on 963 nights since 1995.
Also covered by this forecast
Villages and districts around Tērvete share its forecast: within a few kilometres the sky, the Kp needed and the best direction are the same.
- Tērvetes pagasts 3 km
- Zelmeņi 4 km
- Kalnačimas 4 km
- Gauriņi 4 km
- Kroņauce 5 km
- Abgunste 6 km
- Klinti 8 km
- Dzeguzēni 8 km
- Degumuiža 8 km
- Ābeles 8 km
- Zaļenieku pagasts 8 km
- Augstkalnes pagasts 8 km
- Zaļenieki 9 km
- Augstkalne 9 km
- Klūnas 10 km
- Bukaiši 12 km
- Rociņas 12 km
- Bukaišu pagasts 13 km
- Nesava 18 km