Ropaži Municipality, LatviaMagnetic latitude 53.7°Population 5,89321 m above sea level
Northern lights in Ulbroka
Ulbroka needs an active night: from about Kp 4.3 the aurora appears low over the north horizon, and it rises higher as activity grows. Since 1995 storms of Kp 4.7 or more reached this place during darkness on 962 nights.
Right now
Quiet right now (Kp 0.7).
Magnetometer at Tartu (195 km away): low magnetic activity.
Updates every minute while this page is open. Ground data: FMI MIRACLE R-index (CC BY 4.0).
Tonight in one minute
Yes — good chance tonight
- Solar activity Strong enough: Kp 4.7 expected, 4.3 needed here.
- Sky Mostly clear (13% cloud).
- Darkness Dark from 19:31 to 06:44. A bright moon (70%) washes out faint displays.
What to do: Go somewhere dark around 04:00, give your eyes 15 minutes to adjust and look north, low over the horizon.
Wednesday 21 October — Good chance · Kp 4.7 · best around 01:30 · Forecast cloud: 13%. · Reliability: good
Each box is one night: the colour shows the chance, the number the expected Kp. Tap a night for details.
📅 Add these nights to your calendar — it updates itself (.ics)
How far ahead can the northern lights be forecast?
- Minutes to an hour: satellites 1.5 million km away measure the solar wind before it reaches Earth. This is the surest warning — the “Right now” box uses it.
- 1–3 days: when the Sun throws out a cloud of particles, it takes one to three days to arrive. NOAA's 3-hourly forecast covers these nights; the timing can still be off by a few hours.
- 4–27 days: the Sun turns once every 27 days, and regions that disturbed Earth's field last time often do it again. NOAA's 27-day outlook gives this rough trend — new eruptions are not in it yet.
Tonight
Updated 22:17 local time
Excellent chance
Best around 04:00. Forecast max Kp 4.7 (this place needs 4.3), average cloud 13%.
- Dark enough
- 19:31 – 06:44
- Sunset
- 18:07 · sunrise 08:08
- Moon
- 70% · ↑ 16:37 · ↓ 01:32
- Kp neededKp index: a 0–9 measure of geomagnetic activity. The higher it is, the further from the poles the aurora reaches.
- Kp 4.3
- Kp for photos
- In photos: from Kp 2.7 (a red glow low in the north).
- Look towards
- north (0°)
Cloud layers and weather
Low cloud blocks the aurora completely. Thin high cloud often still lets a bright aurora shine through, so a sky with only high cloud is worth a look.
| Time | Tue, 22 | Wed, 01 | Wed, 04 | Wed, 19 | Wed, 22 | Thu, 01 | Thu, 04 | Thu, 19 | Thu, 22 | Fri, 01 | Fri, 04 | Fri, 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low cloud | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10% | 17% | 22% | 29% | 100% |
| Mid cloud | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 17% | 41% | 66% |
| High cloud | 16% | 22% | 20% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 13% | 9% |
| Temperature | 7 °C | 7 °C | 6 °C | 12 °C | 10 °C | 9 °C | 9 °C | 12 °C | 11 °C | 10 °C | 10 °C | 11 °C |
| Feels like | 5 °C | 4 °C | 4 °C | 12 °C | 8 °C | 7 °C | 6 °C | 12 °C | 11 °C | 10 °C | 8 °C | 11 °C |
| Wind | 3 m/s | 3 m/s | 3 m/s | 5 m/s | 5 m/s | 5 m/s | 5 m/s | 6 m/s | 5 m/s | 5 m/s | 5 m/s | 4 m/s |
Cloud layers and weather: Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0).
Score = activity (NOAA Kp and OVATION) × clear sky (MET Norway) × darkness × moonlight. Methodology
Weather in Ulbroka
The aurora only shows through clear skies, so the weather matters as much as the Kp index. Here is the general forecast for Ulbroka: temperature, wind and the chance of rain for the coming days.
Planning further ahead? See the hour-by-hour weather forecast for Ulbroka on Atlas of Seasons.
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What you would see from Ulbroka
Facing north. Bands show where the aurora sits at two activity levels.
| Kp | What you see | Lower edge | Ray tops | Distance to the aurora |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Below the horizon | 2° | 7° | 979 km |
| 3 | Faint glow, mostly on camera | 4° | 11° | 756 km |
| 4 | Faint glow, mostly on camera | 9° | 18° | 534 km |
| 5 | Visible to the north | 17° | 31° | 311 km |
| 6 | Visible to the north | 49° | 65° | 89 km |
| 7 | Overhead and all around | – | – | – |
| 8 | Overhead, and also to the south | – | – | – |
| 9 | Overhead, and also to the south | – | – | – |
The Kp scale in plain words
Kp is a 0–9 score for how strongly the Earth's magnetic field is being shaken by the solar wind. The higher it goes, the further from the poles the northern lights reach. Kp 0–2 is a quiet night; Kp 5 and above is a geomagnetic storm.
- Kp 0–2 Quiet Only under the auroral oval: northern Norway, Swedish and Finnish Lapland, Iceland, Alaska, northern Canada.
- Kp 3 Unsettled camera in Ulbroka Bright in the Arctic; low on the horizon in central Scandinavia and southern Iceland.
- Kp 4 Active eye in Ulbroka Overhead in the Arctic; low in the north from southern Norway, Sweden, Finland and northern Scotland.
- Kp 5 Minor storm (G1) next 24 h Scotland, southern Scandinavia, the Baltic states, the northern US states and southern Canada.
- Kp 6 Moderate storm (G2) Northern England, Denmark, northern Germany and Poland, the US Midwest — often clearer in photos than to the eye.
- Kp 7 Strong storm (G3) Most of the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Czechia; red glow in photos from France and the northern Alps.
- Kp 8 Severe storm (G4) Central Europe to the eye; red sky in photos from northern Italy, Spain, the Balkans and Turkey's Black Sea coast.
- Kp 9 Extreme storm (G5) Seen across Europe and the US; in photos as far south as the Mediterranean, Turkey and North Africa (May 2024).
Light pollution
Rural to suburban. Some sky glow from nearby lights. Moderate displays are fine; faint ones are easier a few kilometres out.
A noticeably darker area starts about 15 km to the east. Open in OpenStreetMap
Estimate from NASA VIIRS night-light data (sky-glow model within 50 km). Check access and private land before you go.
Hills and mountains
The horizon towards the north is open (terrain below 0.4°), so low aurora is not blocked.
From elevation data (AWS Terrain Tiles) along seven lines of sight up to 30 km.
Best months to see the aurora in Ulbroka
Share of nights 2005–2025 that were dark, active enough here and mostly clear.
September has been the best month (6% of nights), followed by April (3%).
| Month | Good nights | Clear nights | Darkness | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September | 6% | 49% | 8.4 h | 11° / 17°C |
| October | 3% | 33% | 10.8 h | 6° / 11°C |
| November | 0.8% | 12% | 12.8 h | 2° / 5°C |
| December | 1% | 8% | 13.6 h | -2° / 1°C |
| January | 0.2% | 7% | 13.3 h | -5° / -1°C |
| February | 0.7% | 9% | 11.4 h | -6° / -1°C |
| March | 2% | 26% | 9.3 h | -3° / 3°C |
| April | 3% | 53% | 6.3 h | 2° / 10°C |
Darkness through the year
- No full darkness (Sun 12° below the horizon) from 23 May to 21 July — the sky stays too bright for most auroras.
- Next new moon 9 November, next full moon 26 October. The darkest skies are in the week around new moon.
Aurora nights in Ulbroka since 1995
Nights when Kp reached 4.7 or more while it was dark here.
Most recent strong nights
- 10 October 2026 · Kp 7.0
- 4 October 2026 · Kp 5.7
- 18 August 2026 · Kp 5.3
- 5 June 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 15 May 2026 · Kp 6.0
- 4 May 2026 · Kp 6.0
- 20 April 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 3 April 2026 · Kp 5.7
Practical information
- Nearest airport
- Riga International Airport (RIX) · 20 km
- Typical low / high in September
- 11° / 17°C
- What to wear
- Cool nights: layers, a windproof jacket, hat and gloves for standing still outside. Full clothing guide
- Emergency number
- 112
- Winter driving
- Winter tyres are mandatory 1 Dec – 1 Mar for vehicles up to 3.5 t, and since 1 Oct 2024 they must carry the 3PMSF (mountain-snowflake) symbol (M+S only no longer qualifies); studded tyres allowed 1 Oct – 1 May. Road conditions: Latvian State Roads (Latvijas Valsts ceļi) driving-conditions map. Road conditions
- Access to land
- Latvia has no Nordic-style right to roam: private land may be off-limits without the owner's consent, but state forests managed by LVM (outside protected areas) are open to the public, including overnight stays; nature reserves and strict zones of protected areas are restricted.
- Weather service
- Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Centre (LVĢMC)
Questions and answers
What Kp do you need to see the aurora in Ulbroka?
Ulbroka needs an active night: from about Kp 4.3 the aurora appears low over the north horizon, and it rises higher as activity grows.
Which way should I look for the aurora in Ulbroka?
Face north (about 0° from true north). At Kp 4.3 the lower edge of the aurora sits roughly 17° above the horizon; stronger activity lifts it higher and further across the sky.
What is the best month to see the aurora in Ulbroka?
Over 2005–2025, September gave the best odds in Ulbroka (6% of nights dark, active enough and mostly clear), followed by April (3%).
When is the aurora season in Ulbroka?
From 23 May to 21 July the sky in Ulbroka never gets dark enough. Outside that period the aurora can be seen whenever activity and clouds allow.
Is there much light pollution in Ulbroka?
Some sky glow from nearby lights. Moderate displays are fine; faint ones are easier a few kilometres out. A noticeably darker area starts about 15 km to the east.
When was the aurora last possible in Ulbroka?
Activity last reached storm level (Kp 5 or more) during darkness in Ulbroka on 10 October 2026 (Kp 7.0) — 962 such nights since 1995. Here the aurora also appears on many quieter nights.
Also covered by this forecast
Villages and districts around Ulbroka share its forecast: within a few kilometres the sky, the Kp needed and the best direction are the same.
- Stopiņu pagasts 1 km
- Dzidriņas 2 km
- Līči 3 km
- Silabrieži 3 km
- Acone 3 km
- Dreiliņi 4 km
- Saurieši 4 km
- Ūlupi 4 km
- Stopiņi 5 km
- Pļavnieki 5 km
- Upeslejas 5 km
- Salaspils pagasts 5 km
- Mucenieki 5 km
- Daktermuiža 6 km
- Cekule 7 km
- Silakrogs 8 km
- Gaidas 9 km
- Jaunbagumi 15 km