Vilnius County, LithuaniaMagnetic latitude 51.4°Population 5,054116 m above sea level
Can you see the northern lights in Nemenčinė?
From Nemenčinė the aurora is seen only during geomagnetic storms (about Kp 5.3 or more), usually as a glow low in the north. Cameras often pick it up before the eye does. Since 1995 that level (Kp 5.3) was reached during darkness here on 467 nights.
Right now
It is still light here. Darkness starts at 19:33.
Magnetometer at Tartu (384 km away): low magnetic activity.
Updates every minute while this page is open. Ground data: FMI MIRACLE R-index (CC BY 4.0).
Tonight in one minute
Not tonight
- Solar activity Too weak: Kp 2.7 expected, 5.3 needed here.
- Sky Overcast (95% cloud).
- Darkness Dark from 19:33 to 06:34.
What to do: Not tonight — your next chance is shown just below.
- Detailed forecast Sat 17 2.7 No · Kp 2.7
- Sun 18 1.7 No · Kp 1.7
- Mon 19 2 No · Kp 2
- 27-day trend Tue 20 3 No · Kp 3
- Wed 21 4 Photos only · Kp 4
- Thu 22 4 Unlikely · Kp 4
- Fri 23 4 Unlikely · Kp 4
- Sat 24 3 No · Kp 3
- Sun 25 2 No · Kp 2
- Mon 26 2 No · Kp 2
- Tue 27 2 No · Kp 2
- Wed 28 2 No · Kp 2
- Thu 29 2 No · Kp 2
- Fri 30 5 Photos only · Kp 5
- Sat 31 5 Photos only · Kp 5
- Sun 1 5 Unlikely · Kp 5
- Mon 2 3 No · Kp 3
- Tue 3 2 No · Kp 2
- Wed 4 2 No · Kp 2
- Thu 5 3 No · Kp 3
- Fri 6 3 No · Kp 3
- Sat 7 3 No · Kp 3
Thursday 22 October — Photos only · Kp 4 · best around 00:30 · Forecast cloud: 59%. · Reliability: low (rough trend)
Each box is one night: the colour shows the chance, the number the expected Kp. Tap a night for details.
📅 Add these nights to your calendar — it updates itself (.ics)
How far ahead can the northern lights be forecast?
- Minutes to an hour: satellites 1.5 million km away measure the solar wind before it reaches Earth. This is the surest warning — the “Right now” box uses it.
- 1–3 days: when the Sun throws out a cloud of particles, it takes one to three days to arrive. NOAA's 3-hourly forecast covers these nights; the timing can still be off by a few hours.
- 4–27 days: the Sun turns once every 27 days, and regions that disturbed Earth's field last time often do it again. NOAA's 27-day outlook gives this rough trend — new eruptions are not in it yet.
Tonight
Updated 11:19 local time
Unlikely
Best around 19:00. Forecast max Kp 2.7 (this place needs 5.3), average cloud 95%.
- Dark enough
- 19:33 – 06:34
- Sunset
- 18:15 · sunrise 07:53
- Moon
- 38% · ↑ 15:28 · ↓ 21:40
- Kp neededKp index: a 0–9 measure of geomagnetic activity. The higher it is, the further from the poles the aurora reaches.
- Kp 5.3
- Kp for photos
- In photos: from Kp 3.7 (a red glow low in the north).
- Look towards
- north (0°)
Cloud layers and weather
Low cloud blocks the aurora completely. Thin high cloud often still lets a bright aurora shine through, so a sky with only high cloud is worth a look.
| Time | Sat, 19 | Sat, 22 | Sun, 01 | Sun, 04 | Sun, 19 | Sun, 22 | Mon, 01 | Mon, 04 | Mon, 19 | Mon, 22 | Tue, 01 | Tue, 04 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low cloud | 25% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 41% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 38% | 88% | 88% | 1% |
| Mid cloud | 26% | 35% | 29% | 37% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 42% | 42% | 2% |
| High cloud | 0% | 0% | 13% | 94% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% |
| Temperature | 7 °C | 5 °C | 4 °C | 4 °C | 7 °C | 5 °C | 3 °C | 1 °C | 8 °C | 8 °C | 8 °C | 8 °C |
| Feels like | 7 °C | 5 °C | 3 °C | 2 °C | 6 °C | 3 °C | 1 °C | -1 °C | 6 °C | 6 °C | 6 °C | 6 °C |
| Wind | 1 m/s | 1 m/s | 2 m/s | 2 m/s | 2 m/s | 3 m/s | 2 m/s | 2 m/s | 4 m/s | 3 m/s | 3 m/s | 3 m/s |
Cloud layers and weather: MET Norway (CC BY 4.0).
Score = activity (NOAA Kp and OVATION) × clear sky (MET Norway) × darkness × moonlight. Methodology
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What you would see from Nemenčinė
Facing north. Bands show where the aurora sits at two activity levels.
| Kp | What you see | Lower edge | Ray tops | Distance to the aurora |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Below the horizon | -1° | 3° | 1,234 km |
| 3 | Below the horizon | 1° | 6° | 1,012 km |
| 4 | Faint glow, mostly on camera | 4° | 10° | 790 km |
| 5 | Faint glow, mostly on camera | 8° | 17° | 567 km |
| 6 | Visible to the north | 15° | 28° | 345 km |
| 7 | Visible to the north | 40° | 58° | 122 km |
| 8 | Overhead and all around | – | – | – |
| 9 | Overhead and all around | – | – | – |
The Kp scale in plain words
Kp is a 0–9 score for how strongly the Earth's magnetic field is being shaken by the solar wind. The higher it goes, the further from the poles the northern lights reach. Kp 0–2 is a quiet night; Kp 5 and above is a geomagnetic storm.
- Kp 0–2 Quiet Only under the auroral oval: northern Norway, Swedish and Finnish Lapland, Iceland, Alaska, northern Canada.
- Kp 3 Unsettled next 24 h Bright in the Arctic; low on the horizon in central Scandinavia and southern Iceland.
- Kp 4 Active camera in Nemenčinė Overhead in the Arctic; low in the north from southern Norway, Sweden, Finland and northern Scotland.
- Kp 5 Minor storm (G1) eye in Nemenčinė Scotland, southern Scandinavia, the Baltic states, the northern US states and southern Canada.
- Kp 6 Moderate storm (G2) Northern England, Denmark, northern Germany and Poland, the US Midwest — often clearer in photos than to the eye.
- Kp 7 Strong storm (G3) Most of the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Czechia; red glow in photos from France and the northern Alps.
- Kp 8 Severe storm (G4) Central Europe to the eye; red sky in photos from northern Italy, Spain, the Balkans and Turkey's Black Sea coast.
- Kp 9 Extreme storm (G5) Seen across Europe and the US; in photos as far south as the Mediterranean, Turkey and North Africa (May 2024).
Light pollution
City sky. City lights hide all but the brightest displays. Plan to leave the urban area.
A noticeably darker area starts about 5 km to the north-east. Open in OpenStreetMap
Estimate from NASA VIIRS night-light data (sky-glow model within 50 km). Check access and private land before you go.
Hills and mountains
The horizon towards the north is open (terrain below 1.1°), so low aurora is not blocked.
From elevation data (AWS Terrain Tiles) along seven lines of sight up to 30 km.
Best months to see the aurora in Nemenčinė
Share of nights 2005–2025 that were dark, active enough here and mostly clear.
September has been the best month (2% of nights), followed by August (1%).
| Month | Good nights | Clear nights | Darkness | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September | 2% | 55% | 8.4 h | 9° / 18°C |
| October | 1% | 38% | 10.8 h | 4° / 10°C |
| November | 0.5% | 16% | 12.6 h | 0° / 4°C |
| December | 0.3% | 13% | 13.6 h | -5° / -1°C |
| January | 0% | 10% | 13.1 h | -8° / -3°C |
| February | 0.3% | 12% | 11.4 h | -8° / -2°C |
| March | 0.9% | 29% | 9.5 h | -4° / 4°C |
| April | 0.6% | 56% | 6.6 h | 1° / 12°C |
Darkness through the year
- No full darkness (Sun 12° below the horizon) from 5 June to 8 July — the sky stays too bright for most auroras.
- Next new moon 9 November, next full moon 26 October. The darkest skies are in the week around new moon.
Aurora nights in Nemenčinė since 1995
Nights when Kp reached 5.3 or more while it was dark here.
Most recent strong nights
- 10 October 2026 · Kp 7.3
- 4 October 2026 · Kp 5.7
- 18 August 2026 · Kp 5.3
- 8 August 2026 · Kp 5.7
- 15 May 2026 · Kp 6.0
- 4 May 2026 · Kp 6.0
- 3 April 2026 · Kp 5.7
- 22 March 2026 · Kp 6.7
Practical information
- Nearest airport
- Vilnius International Airport (VNO) · 27 km
- Typical low / high in September
- 9° / 18°C
- What to wear
- Cool nights: layers, a windproof jacket, hat and gloves for standing still outside. Full clothing guide
- Emergency number
- 112
- Winter driving
- From 10 Nov summer tyres are prohibited: vehicles up to 3.5 t need winter (studded or non-studded) or all-season tyres until 31 Mar; studded tyres must be removed by 10 Apr. Road conditions: eismoinfo.lt, the state road agency's traffic and road-weather map. Road conditions
- Weather service
- Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service (LHMT)
Questions and answers
What Kp do you need to see the aurora in Nemenčinė?
From Nemenčinė the aurora is seen only during geomagnetic storms (about Kp 5.3 or more), usually as a glow low in the north. Cameras often pick it up before the eye does.
Which way should I look for the aurora in Nemenčinė?
Face north (about 0° from true north). At Kp 5.3 the lower edge of the aurora sits roughly 15° above the horizon; stronger activity lifts it higher and further across the sky.
What is the best month to see the aurora in Nemenčinė?
Over 2005–2025, September gave the best odds in Nemenčinė (2% of nights dark, active enough and mostly clear), followed by August (1%).
When is the aurora season in Nemenčinė?
From 5 June to 8 July the sky in Nemenčinė never gets dark enough. Outside that period the aurora can be seen whenever activity and clouds allow.
Is there much light pollution in Nemenčinė?
City lights hide all but the brightest displays. Plan to leave the urban area. A noticeably darker area starts about 5 km to the north-east.
When was the aurora last possible in Nemenčinė?
The most recent night in our data when activity reached the level Nemenčinė needs, during darkness, was 10 October 2026 (Kp 7.3). It has happened on 467 nights since 1995.
Also covered by this forecast
Villages and districts around Nemenčinė share its forecast: within a few kilometres the sky, the Kp needed and the best direction are the same.
- Nemenčinės miesto sen. 0 km
- Pučkalaukis 1 km
- Piliakalnis 2 km
- Liepalotai 2 km
- Kreivalaužiai 2 km
- Mažosios Kabiškės 2 km
- Ryšininkas 2 km
- Nemenčinė II 2 km
- Kukutiškės 2 km
- Didžiosios Kabiškės 3 km
- Gegužinė 3 km
- Vilkaraistis 3 km
- Karveliškės 3 km
- Bezdonamiškiai 3 km
- Nemenčinės sen. 3 km
- Tuščiauliai 4 km
- Liepiai 4 km
- Ažunerė 4 km
- Baltalaukis 4 km
- Gaukštonys 4 km
- Panemenčys 4 km
- Pakrauglė 4 km
- Krisčiškės 4 km
- Raguvėlė 4 km
- Gamernė 4 km
- Žvyriškės 4 km
- Spragiliniai 5 km
- Diedelupė 5 km
- Sakiškės 5 km
- Miškonys 5 km
- Pasakiškės 5 km
- Kermušiškės 5 km
- Medžiūniškės 5 km
- Stankai 5 km
- Krikščioniškės 5 km
- Mėleniai 5 km
- Kreivėnai 5 km
- Pušinė 5 km
- Naujasodė 5 km
- Ragūnai 5 km