Nelson Region, New ZealandMagnetic latitude 47.7°Population 20,26031 m above sea level
Can you see the southern lights in Stoke?
Only severe geomagnetic storms (Kp 7.3 or more) bring the aurora into view from Stoke — a few nights per solar cycle, low in the south-south-west. Since 1995 that level (Kp 7.3) was reached during darkness here on 49 nights.
Right now
It is still light here. Darkness starts at 20:56.
Latest measured half-hour activity worldwide: Hp30 0.7.
Updates every minute while this page is open. Ground data: GFZ Potsdam Hp30 index (CC BY 4.0).
Tonight in one minute
Not tonight
- Solar activity Too weak: Kp 3.7 expected, 7.3 needed here.
- Sky Mostly clear (5% cloud).
- Darkness Dark from 20:56 to 05:26.
What to do: Not tonight — your next chance is shown just below.
Tuesday 20 October — No · Kp 3.7 · Forecast cloud: 5%. · Reliability: medium
Each box is one night: the colour shows the chance, the number the expected Kp. Tap a night for details.
📅 Add these nights to your calendar — it updates itself (.ics)
How far ahead can the northern lights be forecast?
- Minutes to an hour: satellites 1.5 million km away measure the solar wind before it reaches Earth. This is the surest warning — the “Right now” box uses it.
- 1–3 days: when the Sun throws out a cloud of particles, it takes one to three days to arrive. NOAA's 3-hourly forecast covers these nights; the timing can still be off by a few hours.
- 4–27 days: the Sun turns once every 27 days, and regions that disturbed Earth's field last time often do it again. NOAA's 27-day outlook gives this rough trend — new eruptions are not in it yet.
Tonight
Updated 09:41 local time
Unlikely
Best around 20:00. Forecast max Kp 3.7 (this place needs 7.3), average cloud 5%.
- Dark enough
- 20:56 – 05:26
- Sunset
- 19:53 · sunrise 06:29
- Moon
- 61% · ↑ 13:21 · ↓ 03:54
- Kp neededKp index: a 0–9 measure of geomagnetic activity. The higher it is, the further from the poles the aurora reaches.
- Kp 7.3
- Kp for photos
- In photos: from Kp 5.7 (a red glow low in the south-south-west).
- Look towards
- south-south-west (194°)
Cloud layers and weather
Low cloud blocks the aurora completely. Thin high cloud often still lets a bright aurora shine through, so a sky with only high cloud is worth a look.
| Time | Tue, 21 | Wed, 00 | Wed, 03 | Wed, 21 | Thu, 00 | Thu, 03 | Thu, 21 | Fri, 00 | Fri, 03 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low cloud | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Mid cloud | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| High cloud | 8% | 23% | 19% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Temperature | 11 °C | 9 °C | 7 °C | 13 °C | 10 °C | 8 °C | 14 °C | 10 °C | 9 °C |
| Feels like | 11 °C | 9 °C | 6 °C | 13 °C | 10 °C | 8 °C | 14 °C | 10 °C | 8 °C |
| Wind | 1 m/s | 1 m/s | 2 m/s | 1 m/s | 1 m/s | 1 m/s | 0 m/s | 1 m/s | 2 m/s |
Cloud layers and weather: Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0).
Score = activity (NOAA Kp and OVATION) × clear sky (MET Norway) × darkness × moonlight. Methodology
Weather in Stoke
The aurora only shows through clear skies, so the weather matters as much as the Kp index. Here is the general forecast for Stoke: temperature, wind and the chance of rain for the coming days.
Planning further ahead? See the hour-by-hour weather forecast for Stoke on Atlas of Seasons.
Seeing it right now?
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Live webcams near Stoke
Check the sky for yourself: public cameras within 300 km. They open on the camera owner's website.
These cameras belong to their owners — we only link to them. Most show little in daylight or under cloud, and some pause in summer.
What you would see from Stoke
Facing south-south-west. Bands show where the aurora sits at two activity levels.
| Kp | What you see | Lower edge | Ray tops | Distance to the aurora |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Below the horizon | -4° | -1° | 1,646 km |
| 3 | Below the horizon | -2° | 1° | 1,423 km |
| 4 | Below the horizon | 0° | 4° | 1,201 km |
| 5 | Below the horizon | 2° | 7° | 979 km |
| 6 | Faint glow, mostly on camera | 4° | 11° | 756 km |
| 7 | Faint glow, mostly on camera | 9° | 18° | 534 km |
| 8 | Visible to the south-south-west | 17° | 31° | 311 km |
| 9 | Visible to the south-south-west | 49° | 65° | 89 km |
The Kp scale in plain words
Kp is a 0–9 score for how strongly the Earth's magnetic field is being shaken by the solar wind. The higher it goes, the further from the poles the northern lights reach. Kp 0–2 is a quiet night; Kp 5 and above is a geomagnetic storm.
- Kp 0–2 Quiet Only under the auroral oval: northern Norway, Swedish and Finnish Lapland, Iceland, Alaska, northern Canada.
- Kp 3 Unsettled Bright in the Arctic; low on the horizon in central Scandinavia and southern Iceland.
- Kp 4 Active next 24 h Overhead in the Arctic; low in the north from southern Norway, Sweden, Finland and northern Scotland.
- Kp 5 Minor storm (G1) Scotland, southern Scandinavia, the Baltic states, the northern US states and southern Canada.
- Kp 6 Moderate storm (G2) camera in Stoke Northern England, Denmark, northern Germany and Poland, the US Midwest — often clearer in photos than to the eye.
- Kp 7 Strong storm (G3) eye in Stoke Most of the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Czechia; red glow in photos from France and the northern Alps.
- Kp 8 Severe storm (G4) Central Europe to the eye; red sky in photos from northern Italy, Spain, the Balkans and Turkey's Black Sea coast.
- Kp 9 Extreme storm (G5) Seen across Europe and the US; in photos as far south as the Mediterranean, Turkey and North Africa (May 2024).
Light pollution
Suburban sky. Noticeable sky glow. Bright displays are visible, but driving out of town makes a clear difference.
Estimate from NASA VIIRS night-light data (sky-glow model within 50 km). Check access and private land before you go.
Hills and mountains
Terrain is not modelled for this place.
From elevation data (AWS Terrain Tiles) along seven lines of sight up to 30 km.
Best months to see the aurora in Stoke
Share of nights 2005–2025 that were dark, active enough here and mostly clear.
Activity of Kp 7.3 or more is too rare here for monthly odds to be meaningful. The table still shows how often nights are clear and dark.
| Month | Good nights | Clear nights | Darkness | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March | 0.2% | 63% | 9.6 h | 14° / 20°C |
| April | 0% | 64% | 11.0 h | 12° / 17°C |
| May | 0.3% | 61% | 12.0 h | 10° / 14°C |
| June | 0.3% | 58% | 12.4 h | 8° / 12°C |
| July | 0% | 55% | 12.3 h | 7° / 11°C |
| August | 0.3% | 59% | 11.4 h | 8° / 12°C |
| September | 0.3% | 58% | 10.0 h | 8° / 13°C |
| October | 0.3% | 62% | 8.6 h | 9° / 15°C |
Aurora nights in Stoke since 1995
Nights when Kp reached 7.3 or more while it was dark here.
Most recent strong nights
- 10 October 2026 · Kp 7.3
- 20 January 2026 · Kp 7.7
- 12 November 2025 · Kp 7.7
- 1 June 2025 · Kp 7.7
- 16 April 2025 · Kp 7.3
- 11 October 2024 · Kp 7.7
- 10 October 2024 · Kp 7.7
- 12 August 2024 · Kp 8.0
Practical information
- Nearest airport
- Nelson Airport (NSN) · 2 km
- Typical low / high in May
- 10° / 14°C
- What to wear
- Cool nights: layers, a windproof jacket, hat and gloves for standing still outside. Full clothing guide
- Emergency number
- 111 (free, works from mobiles without credit); 105 for non-emergency Police
- Winter driving
- NZTA advises anyone crossing alpine passes or travelling in the south and inland South Island in winter to carry chains and know how to fit them; from winter 2026 Queenstown Lakes District Council can fine drivers $750 for not fitting chains on council roads when 'chains required' signs are shown. Check NZTA Journey Planner for closures and 'chains essential' notices. Road conditions
- Access to land
- Freedom camping is allowed on DOC public conservation land unless a site is prohibited or restricted; scenic/recreation reserves are closed to it unless DOC provides a campsite, some sites are self-contained-vehicle only (from 7 June 2026 a green warrant card must be displayed), and breaches can be fined.
- Weather service
- MetService (Meteorological Service of New Zealand)
Questions and answers
What Kp do you need to see the aurora in Stoke?
Only severe geomagnetic storms (Kp 7.3 or more) bring the aurora into view from Stoke — a few nights per solar cycle, low in the south-south-west.
Which way should I look for the aurora in Stoke?
Face south-south-west (about 194° from true north). At Kp 7.3 the lower edge of the aurora sits roughly 17° above the horizon; stronger activity lifts it higher and further across the sky.
When is the aurora season in Stoke?
Stoke gets dark enough for the aurora all year round, though the long winter nights give the most hours to watch.
Is there much light pollution in Stoke?
Noticeable sky glow. Bright displays are visible, but driving out of town makes a clear difference.
When was the aurora last possible in Stoke?
The most recent night in our data when activity reached the level Stoke needs, during darkness, was 10 October 2026 (Kp 7.3). It has happened on 49 nights since 1995.
Also covered by this forecast
Villages and districts around Stoke share its forecast: within a few kilometres the sky, the Kp needed and the best direction are the same.
- Wakatu 2 km
- Enner Glynn 2 km
- Annesbrook 2 km