Bitlis Province, TürkiyeMagnetic latitude 34.7°Population 64,6951,708 m above sea level
Can you see the northern lights in Ahlat?
From Ahlat the aurora is too low for the naked eye except in the most extreme storms, but in severe storms (about Kp 8.7 or more) cameras record a red glow low in the north. Strong enough for photos on 12 nights since 1995 — most recently on 19 January 2026.
Right now
It is still light here. Darkness starts at 18:26.
Latest measured half-hour activity worldwide: Hp30 1.7.
Updates every minute while this page is open. Ground data: GFZ Potsdam Hp30 index (CC BY 4.0).
Tonight in one minute
Not tonight
- Solar activity Too weak: Kp 2 expected, 8.7 needed here.
- Sky Mostly clear (22% cloud).
- Darkness Dark from 18:26 to 05:24.
What to do: Not tonight — your next chance is shown just below.
- Detailed forecast Sat 17 2 No · Kp 2
- Sun 18 1.7 No · Kp 1.7
- Mon 19 2.7 No · Kp 2.7
- 27-day trend Tue 20 3 No · Kp 3
- Wed 21 4 No · Kp 4
- Thu 22 4 No · Kp 4
- Fri 23 4 No · Kp 4
- Sat 24 3 No · Kp 3
- Sun 25 2 No · Kp 2
- Mon 26 2 No · Kp 2
- Tue 27 2 No · Kp 2
- Wed 28 2 No · Kp 2
- Thu 29 2 No · Kp 2
- Fri 30 5 No · Kp 5
- Sat 31 5 No · Kp 5
- Sun 1 5 No · Kp 5
- Mon 2 3 No · Kp 3
- Tue 3 2 No · Kp 2
- Wed 4 2 No · Kp 2
- Thu 5 3 No · Kp 3
- Fri 6 3 No · Kp 3
- Sat 7 3 No · Kp 3
Saturday 17 October — No · Kp 2 · Forecast cloud: 22%. · Reliability: medium
Each box is one night: the colour shows the chance, the number the expected Kp. Tap a night for details.
📅 Add these nights to your calendar — it updates itself (.ics)
How far ahead can the northern lights be forecast?
- Minutes to an hour: satellites 1.5 million km away measure the solar wind before it reaches Earth. This is the surest warning — the “Right now” box uses it.
- 1–3 days: when the Sun throws out a cloud of particles, it takes one to three days to arrive. NOAA's 3-hourly forecast covers these nights; the timing can still be off by a few hours.
- 4–27 days: the Sun turns once every 27 days, and regions that disturbed Earth's field last time often do it again. NOAA's 27-day outlook gives this rough trend — new eruptions are not in it yet.
Tonight
Updated 06:54 local time
Unlikely
Best around 18:00. Forecast max Kp 2.0 (this place needs 9+), average cloud 22%.
- Dark enough
- 18:26 – 05:24
- Sunset
- 17:29 · sunrise 06:22
- Moon
- 36% · ↑ 12:48 · ↓ 21:57
- Kp neededKp index: a 0–9 measure of geomagnetic activity. The higher it is, the further from the poles the aurora reaches.
- Kp 9+
- Kp for photos
- In photos: from Kp 8.7 (a red glow low in the north).
- Look towards
- north (2°)
Cloud layers and weather
Low cloud blocks the aurora completely. Thin high cloud often still lets a bright aurora shine through, so a sky with only high cloud is worth a look.
| Time | Sat, 18 | Sat, 21 | Sun, 00 | Sun, 03 | Sun, 18 | Sun, 21 | Mon, 00 | Mon, 03 | Mon, 18 | Mon, 21 | Tue, 00 | Tue, 03 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low cloud | 1% | 7% | 9% | 16% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Mid cloud | 6% | 13% | 4% | 16% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| High cloud | 1% | 17% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 15% | 72% | 11% | 11% | 86% |
| Temperature | 13 °C | 12 °C | 13 °C | 13 °C | 14 °C | 12 °C | 9 °C | 8 °C | 13 °C | 10 °C | 10 °C | 8 °C |
| Feels like | 13 °C | 12 °C | 13 °C | 13 °C | 14 °C | 12 °C | 7 °C | 6 °C | 13 °C | 10 °C | 10 °C | 8 °C |
| Wind | 2 m/s | 4 m/s | 5 m/s | 5 m/s | 4 m/s | 3 m/s | 4 m/s | 3 m/s | 4 m/s | 3 m/s | 3 m/s | 1 m/s |
Cloud layers and weather: MET Norway (CC BY 4.0).
Score = activity (NOAA Kp and OVATION) × clear sky (MET Norway) × darkness × moonlight. Methodology
Seeing it right now?
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What you would see from Ahlat
Facing north. Bands show where the aurora sits at two activity levels.
| Kp | What you see | Lower edge | Ray tops | Distance to the aurora |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Below the horizon | -12° | -10° | 3,091 km |
| 3 | Below the horizon | -11° | -9° | 2,869 km |
| 4 | Below the horizon | -10° | -8° | 2,647 km |
| 5 | Below the horizon | -8° | -6° | 2,424 km |
| 6 | Below the horizon | -7° | -5° | 2,202 km |
| 7 | Below the horizon | -6° | -3° | 1,979 km |
| 8 | Below the horizon | -5° | -2° | 1,757 km |
| 9 | Faint glow, mostly on camera | -3° | 0° | 1,535 km |
The Kp scale in plain words
Kp is a 0–9 score for how strongly the Earth's magnetic field is being shaken by the solar wind. The higher it goes, the further from the poles the northern lights reach. Kp 0–2 is a quiet night; Kp 5 and above is a geomagnetic storm.
- Kp 0–2 Quiet Only under the auroral oval: northern Norway, Swedish and Finnish Lapland, Iceland, Alaska, northern Canada.
- Kp 3 Unsettled next 24 h Bright in the Arctic; low on the horizon in central Scandinavia and southern Iceland.
- Kp 4 Active Overhead in the Arctic; low in the north from southern Norway, Sweden, Finland and northern Scotland.
- Kp 5 Minor storm (G1) Scotland, southern Scandinavia, the Baltic states, the northern US states and southern Canada.
- Kp 6 Moderate storm (G2) Northern England, Denmark, northern Germany and Poland, the US Midwest — often clearer in photos than to the eye.
- Kp 7 Strong storm (G3) Most of the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Czechia; red glow in photos from France and the northern Alps.
- Kp 8 Severe storm (G4) camera in Ahlat Central Europe to the eye; red sky in photos from northern Italy, Spain, the Balkans and Turkey's Black Sea coast.
- Kp 9 Extreme storm (G5) Seen across Europe and the US; in photos as far south as the Mediterranean, Turkey and North Africa (May 2024).
Light pollution
Bright suburban sky. Strong sky glow washes out faint aurora. Head out of town for anything but a bright display.
Estimate from NASA VIIRS night-light data (sky-glow model within 50 km). Check access and private land before you go.
Hills and mountains
Terrain is not modelled for this place.
From elevation data (AWS Terrain Tiles) along seven lines of sight up to 30 km.
Best months to see the aurora in Ahlat
Share of nights 2005–2025 that were dark, active enough here and mostly clear.
Activity of Kp 9+ or more is too rare here for monthly odds to be meaningful. The table still shows how often nights are clear and dark.
| Month | Good nights | Clear nights | Darkness | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September | 0% | 84% | 9.6 h | 11° / 27°C |
| October | 0% | 50% | 10.9 h | 5° / 18°C |
| November | 0% | 37% | 11.9 h | -2° / 10°C |
| December | 0% | 21% | 12.3 h | -7° / 3°C |
| January | 0% | 14% | 12.0 h | -12° / -1°C |
| February | 0% | 17% | 11.0 h | -10° / 1°C |
| March | 0% | 22% | 10.0 h | -3° / 7°C |
| April | 0% | 43% | 8.6 h | 2° / 13°C |
Nights when Ahlat could catch it in photos
Since 1995, nights with Kp 8.7 or more while it was dark here — a red or green glow low on the horizon.
- 19 January 2026 · Kp 8.7
- 11 November 2025 · Kp 8.7
- 10 October 2024 · Kp 8.7
- 10 May 2024 · Kp 8.7
- 9 November 2004 · Kp 8.7
- 7 November 2004 · Kp 8.7
- 20 November 2003 · Kp 8.7
- 30 October 2003 · Kp 9.0
- 29 October 2003 · Kp 8.7
- 5 November 2001 · Kp 8.7
- 15 July 2000 · Kp 9.0
- 6 April 2000 · Kp 8.7
Practical information
- Nearest airport
- Muş Airport (MSR) · 71 km
- Typical low / high in January
- -12° / -1°C
- What to wear
- Arctic cold: wool base layers, insulated jacket and trousers, warm boots, hat and mittens. Full clothing guide
Questions and answers
What Kp do you need to see the aurora in Ahlat?
From Ahlat the aurora is too low for the naked eye except in the most extreme storms, but in severe storms (about Kp 8.7 or more) cameras record a red glow low in the north.
Which way should I look for the aurora in Ahlat?
Around Ahlat the aurora is often right overhead. Start by facing north, but look up and all around — in strong storms it can fill the whole sky and even appear behind you.
When is the aurora season in Ahlat?
Ahlat gets dark enough for the aurora all year round, though the long winter nights give the most hours to watch.
Is there much light pollution in Ahlat?
Strong sky glow washes out faint aurora. Head out of town for anything but a bright display.
Also covered by this forecast
Villages and districts around Ahlat share its forecast: within a few kilometres the sky, the Kp needed and the best direction are the same.
- Ahlat Bucağı 0 km
- Ahlat İlçesi 1 km
- Tonus 2 km
- Kırklar Mahallesi 4 km
- Yeniköprü 6 km
- Uludere 6 km
- Çatalağzı 6 km
- Hının 8 km
- Akrak 8 km
- Yuvadamı 9 km
- Sakaköy 9 km
- Seyrantepe 10 km
- Cemalettinköy 10 km
- Hasük 12 km
- Kınalıkoç 12 km
- Beştaş 12 km
- Adabağ 13 km
- Kırkdönüm 13 km
- Taşharman 14 km
- Yoğurtyemez 15 km
- Sarıkum 15 km
- Ovakışla 16 km
- Ovakışla Bucağı 16 km
- Gölgören 17 km
- Serinbayır 18 km
- Otluyazı 18 km
- Develik 18 km
- Akçaören 18 km
- Tegut 19 km
- Çukurtarla 20 km
- Dilburnu 21 km
- Kırıkkaya 22 km
- Karaağaç 23 km
- Tatargazi 24 km
- Burcukaya 24 km
- Güzelsu 25 km
- Ericek 25 km
- Alakır 26 km
- Nazik 27 km
- Söğütlü 28 km