Washington, United StatesMagnetic latitude 52.9°Population 3,601115 m above sea level
Northern lights in Esperance
Esperance needs an active night: from about Kp 4.7 the aurora appears low over the north-north-east horizon, and it rises higher as activity grows. Since 1995 that level (Kp 4.7) was reached during darkness here on 876 nights.
Right now
It is still light here. Darkness starts at 19:22.
Latest measured half-hour activity worldwide: Hp30 1.
Updates every minute while this page is open. Ground data: GFZ Potsdam Hp30 index (CC BY 4.0).
Tonight in one minute
Not tonight
- Solar activity Enough for a camera: Kp 3 expected, 3 needed for photos, 4.7 for the eye.
- Sky Overcast (100% cloud).
- Darkness Dark from 19:22 to 06:27.
What to do: Not tonight — your next chance is shown just below.
Monday 19 October — Possible · Kp 4.7 · best around 21:30 · Forecast cloud: 73%. · Reliability: medium
Each box is one night: the colour shows the chance, the number the expected Kp. Tap a night for details.
📅 Add these nights to your calendar — it updates itself (.ics)
How far ahead can the northern lights be forecast?
- Minutes to an hour: satellites 1.5 million km away measure the solar wind before it reaches Earth. This is the surest warning — the “Right now” box uses it.
- 1–3 days: when the Sun throws out a cloud of particles, it takes one to three days to arrive. NOAA's 3-hourly forecast covers these nights; the timing can still be off by a few hours.
- 4–27 days: the Sun turns once every 27 days, and regions that disturbed Earth's field last time often do it again. NOAA's 27-day outlook gives this rough trend — new eruptions are not in it yet.
Tonight
Updated 14:12 local time
Unlikely
Best around 19:00. Forecast max Kp 3.0 (this place needs 4.7), average cloud 100%.
- Dark enough
- 19:22 – 06:27
- Sunset
- 18:15 · sunrise 07:34
- Moon
- 52% · ↑ 15:15 · ↓ 23:55
- Kp neededKp index: a 0–9 measure of geomagnetic activity. The higher it is, the further from the poles the aurora reaches.
- Kp 4.7
- Kp for photos
- In photos: from Kp 3 (a red glow low in the north-north-east).
- Look towards
- north-north-east (16°)
Cloud layers and weather
Low cloud blocks the aurora completely. Thin high cloud often still lets a bright aurora shine through, so a sky with only high cloud is worth a look.
| Time | Sun, 19 | Sun, 22 | Mon, 01 | Mon, 04 | Mon, 19 | Mon, 22 | Tue, 01 | Tue, 04 | Tue, 19 | Tue, 22 | Wed, 01 | Wed, 04 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low cloud | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Mid cloud | 35% | 90% | 100% | 81% | 14% | 41% | 34% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| High cloud | 94% | 100% | 88% | 63% | 52% | 73% | 80% | 76% | 0% | 0% | 36% | 94% |
| Temperature | 10 °C | 8 °C | 7 °C | 6 °C | 11 °C | 8 °C | 6 °C | 6 °C | 10 °C | 8 °C | 6 °C | 5 °C |
| Feels like | 9 °C | 7 °C | 7 °C | 6 °C | 11 °C | 7 °C | 5 °C | 5 °C | 10 °C | 8 °C | 6 °C | 5 °C |
| Wind | 3 m/s | 1 m/s | 0 m/s | 1 m/s | 2 m/s | 1 m/s | 1 m/s | 2 m/s | 2 m/s | 0 m/s | 0 m/s | 0 m/s |
Cloud layers and weather: Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0).
Score = activity (NOAA Kp and OVATION) × clear sky (MET Norway) × darkness × moonlight. Methodology
Weather in Esperance
The aurora only shows through clear skies, so the weather matters as much as the Kp index. Here is the general forecast for Esperance: temperature, wind and the chance of rain for the coming days.
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What you would see from Esperance
Facing north-north-east. Bands show where the aurora sits at two activity levels.
| Kp | What you see | Lower edge | Ray tops | Distance to the aurora |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Below the horizon | 1° | 6° | 1,068 km |
| 3 | Faint glow, mostly on camera | 3° | 9° | 845 km |
| 4 | Faint glow, mostly on camera | 7° | 15° | 623 km |
| 5 | Visible to the north-north-east | 13° | 24° | 400 km |
| 6 | Visible to the north-north-east | 30° | 47° | 178 km |
| 7 | Overhead and all around | – | – | – |
| 8 | Overhead and all around | – | – | – |
| 9 | Overhead, and also to the south-south-west | – | – | – |
The Kp scale in plain words
Kp is a 0–9 score for how strongly the Earth's magnetic field is being shaken by the solar wind. The higher it goes, the further from the poles the northern lights reach. Kp 0–2 is a quiet night; Kp 5 and above is a geomagnetic storm.
- Kp 0–2 Quiet Only under the auroral oval: northern Norway, Swedish and Finnish Lapland, Iceland, Alaska, northern Canada.
- Kp 3 Unsettled next 24 h camera in Esperance Bright in the Arctic; low on the horizon in central Scandinavia and southern Iceland.
- Kp 4 Active Overhead in the Arctic; low in the north from southern Norway, Sweden, Finland and northern Scotland.
- Kp 5 Minor storm (G1) eye in Esperance Scotland, southern Scandinavia, the Baltic states, the northern US states and southern Canada.
- Kp 6 Moderate storm (G2) Northern England, Denmark, northern Germany and Poland, the US Midwest — often clearer in photos than to the eye.
- Kp 7 Strong storm (G3) Most of the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Czechia; red glow in photos from France and the northern Alps.
- Kp 8 Severe storm (G4) Central Europe to the eye; red sky in photos from northern Italy, Spain, the Balkans and Turkey's Black Sea coast.
- Kp 9 Extreme storm (G5) Seen across Europe and the US; in photos as far south as the Mediterranean, Turkey and North Africa (May 2024).
Light pollution
Bright suburban sky. Strong sky glow washes out faint aurora. Head out of town for anything but a bright display.
A noticeably darker area starts about 30 km to the west-north-west. Open in OpenStreetMap
Estimate from NASA VIIRS night-light data (sky-glow model within 50 km). Check access and private land before you go.
Hills and mountains
The horizon towards the north-north-east is open (terrain below 1.4°), so low aurora is not blocked.
From elevation data (AWS Terrain Tiles) along seven lines of sight up to 30 km.
Best months to see the aurora in Esperance
Share of nights 2005–2025 that were dark, active enough here and mostly clear.
September has been the best month (5% of nights), followed by April (3%).
| Month | Good nights | Clear nights | Darkness | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September | 5% | 65% | 9.1 h | 10° / 19°C |
| October | 3% | 46% | 10.9 h | 5° / 13°C |
| November | 1% | 29% | 12.1 h | 1° / 7°C |
| December | 1% | 36% | 13.0 h | -1° / 3°C |
| January | 0.9% | 34% | 12.5 h | -1° / 4°C |
| February | 2% | 40% | 11.4 h | -1° / 5°C |
| March | 3% | 35% | 9.9 h | 1° / 7°C |
| April | 3% | 40% | 7.8 h | 3° / 11°C |
Aurora nights in Esperance since 1995
Nights when Kp reached 4.7 or more while it was dark here.
Most recent strong nights
- 4 October 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 3 October 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 7 September 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 3 July 2026 · Kp 6.3
- 18 April 2026 · Kp 5.3
- 17 April 2026 · Kp 5.3
- 2 April 2026 · Kp 5.3
- 1 April 2026 · Kp 5.0
Practical information
- Nearest airport
- Seattle Paine Field International Airport (PAE) · 14 km
Seattle–Tacoma International Airport (SEA) · 38 km - Typical low / high in September
- 10° / 19°C
- What to wear
- Cool nights: layers, a windproof jacket, hat and gloves for standing still outside. Full clothing guide
- Emergency number
- 911
- Winter driving
- Tyre and chain rules are set at state level; check Alaska 511 (511.alaska.gov, Alaska DOT&PF) for Alaska roads, or the relevant state's 511 service elsewhere. Road conditions
- Access to land
- There is no general right to roam; trespass law is set by each state, so stay on public land (national parks, national forests, BLM land) or get the landowner's permission, and follow each park's night-time and parking rules.
- Official space-weather service
- NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (aurora dashboard)
- Weather service
- National Weather Service (NOAA)
Questions and answers
What Kp do you need to see the aurora in Esperance?
Esperance needs an active night: from about Kp 4.7 the aurora appears low over the north-north-east horizon, and it rises higher as activity grows.
Which way should I look for the aurora in Esperance?
Face north-north-east (about 16° from true north). At Kp 4.7 the lower edge of the aurora sits roughly 13° above the horizon; stronger activity lifts it higher and further across the sky.
What is the best month to see the aurora in Esperance?
Over 2005–2025, September gave the best odds in Esperance (5% of nights dark, active enough and mostly clear), followed by April (3%).
When is the aurora season in Esperance?
Esperance gets dark enough for the aurora all year round, though the long winter nights give the most hours to watch.
Is there much light pollution in Esperance?
Strong sky glow washes out faint aurora. Head out of town for anything but a bright display. A noticeably darker area starts about 30 km to the west-north-west.
When was the aurora last possible in Esperance?
The most recent night in our data when activity reached the level Esperance needs, during darkness, was 4 October 2026 (Kp 5.0). It has happened on 876 nights since 1995.
Also covered by this forecast
Villages and districts around Esperance share its forecast: within a few kilometres the sky, the Kp needed and the best direction are the same.
- Ridge Acres Mobile Home Park 0 km
- Firdale 1 km
- Trailer Lane Mobile Park 1 km