Tasmania, AustraliaMagnetic latitude 52.4°876 m above sea level
Southern lights in Cradle Mountain
Cradle Mountain needs an active night: from about Kp 5 the aurora appears low over the south horizon, and it rises higher as activity grows. Since 1995 that level (Kp 5) was reached during darkness here on 599 nights.
Right now
It is still light here. Darkness starts at 20:44.
Latest measured half-hour activity worldwide: Hp30 1.
Updates every minute while this page is open. Ground data: GFZ Potsdam Hp30 index (CC BY 4.0).
Tonight in one minute
Not tonight
- Solar activity Too weak: Kp 1.3 expected, 5 needed here.
- Sky Partly cloudy (68% cloud) — look for gaps.
- Darkness Dark from 20:44 to 05:18.
What to do: Not tonight — your next chance is shown just below.
- Detailed forecast Sun 18 1.3 No · Kp 1.3
- Mon 19 4 Unlikely · Kp 4
- 27-day trend Tue 20 2 No · Kp 2
- Wed 21 3 No · Kp 3
- Thu 22 4 Unlikely · Kp 4
- Fri 23 4 Unlikely · Kp 4
- Sat 24 3 No · Kp 3
- Sun 25 2 No · Kp 2
- Mon 26 2 No · Kp 2
- Tue 27 2 No · Kp 2
- Wed 28 2 No · Kp 2
- Thu 29 2 No · Kp 2
- Fri 30 2 No · Kp 2
- Sat 31 5 Good chance · Kp 5
- Sun 1 5 Good chance · Kp 5
- Mon 2 3 No · Kp 3
- Tue 3 2 No · Kp 2
- Wed 4 2 No · Kp 2
- Thu 5 2 No · Kp 2
- Fri 6 3 No · Kp 3
- Sat 7 3 No · Kp 3
Sunday 1 November — Good chance · Kp 5 · best around 00:30 · No cloud forecast this far ahead; in October about 75% of nights are clear here. · Reliability: low (rough trend)
Each box is one night: the colour shows the chance, the number the expected Kp. Tap a night for details.
📅 Add these nights to your calendar — it updates itself (.ics)
How far ahead can the northern lights be forecast?
- Minutes to an hour: satellites 1.5 million km away measure the solar wind before it reaches Earth. This is the surest warning — the “Right now” box uses it.
- 1–3 days: when the Sun throws out a cloud of particles, it takes one to three days to arrive. NOAA's 3-hourly forecast covers these nights; the timing can still be off by a few hours.
- 4–27 days: the Sun turns once every 27 days, and regions that disturbed Earth's field last time often do it again. NOAA's 27-day outlook gives this rough trend — new eruptions are not in it yet.
Tonight
Updated 09:40 local time
Unlikely
Best around 20:00. Forecast max Kp 1.3 (this place needs 5), average cloud 68%.
- Dark enough
- 20:44 – 05:18
- Sunset
- 19:40 · sunrise 06:21
- Moon
- 43% · ↑ 11:07 · ↓ 02:49
- Kp neededKp index: a 0–9 measure of geomagnetic activity. The higher it is, the further from the poles the aurora reaches.
- Kp 5
- Kp for photos
- In photos: from Kp 3.3 (a red glow low in the south).
- Look towards
- south (188°)
Cloud layers and weather
Low cloud blocks the aurora completely. Thin high cloud often still lets a bright aurora shine through, so a sky with only high cloud is worth a look.
| Time | Sun, 20 | Sun, 23 | Mon, 02 | Mon, 05 | Mon, 22 | Tue, 01 | Tue, 04 | Tue, 21 | Wed, 00 | Wed, 03 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low cloud | 1% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 18% | 13% | 6% | 98% | 100% |
| Mid cloud | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 100% | 27% | 16% | 26% | 22% |
| High cloud | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 97% | 90% | 73% | 52% | 27% | 0% |
| Temperature | 8 °C | 6 °C | 5 °C | 6 °C | 8 °C | 9 °C | 8 °C | 11 °C | 10 °C | 11 °C |
| Feels like | 7 °C | 5 °C | 4 °C | 5 °C | 7 °C | 7 °C | 6 °C | 10 °C | 9 °C | 10 °C |
| Wind | 2 m/s | 1 m/s | 1 m/s | 1 m/s | 2 m/s | 2 m/s | 2 m/s | 2 m/s | 3 m/s | 2 m/s |
| Visibility | 31 km | 41 km | 0.2 km | 0.1 km | 47 km | 47 km | 50 km | 16 km | 5.4 km | 0.3 km |
Cloud layers and weather: Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0).
Clearer skies nearby tonight
Forecast cloud during tonight's darkness: 68% here. The clearest option within 100 km is about 30 km to the west, with 2%. Open in OpenStreetMap
MET Norway forecast at 24 points within 100 km, averaged over the dark hours. Check roads and conditions before driving.
Score = activity (NOAA Kp and OVATION) × clear sky (MET Norway) × darkness × moonlight. Methodology
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What you would see from Cradle Mountain
Facing south. Bands show where the aurora sits at two activity levels.
| Kp | What you see | Lower edge | Ray tops | Distance to the aurora |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Below the horizon | 0° | 5° | 1,123 km |
| 3 | Below the horizon | 3° | 8° | 901 km |
| 4 | Faint glow, mostly on camera | 6° | 13° | 678 km |
| 5 | Visible to the south | 11° | 21° | 456 km |
| 6 | Visible to the south | 23° | 39° | 234 km |
| 7 | Visible to the south | 84° | 87° | 11 km |
| 8 | Overhead and all around | – | – | – |
| 9 | Overhead, and also to the north | – | – | – |
The Kp scale in plain words
Kp is a 0–9 score for how strongly the Earth's magnetic field is being shaken by the solar wind. The higher it goes, the further from the poles the northern lights reach. Kp 0–2 is a quiet night; Kp 5 and above is a geomagnetic storm.
- Kp 0–2 Quiet next 24 h Only under the auroral oval: northern Norway, Swedish and Finnish Lapland, Iceland, Alaska, northern Canada.
- Kp 3 Unsettled camera in Cradle Mountain Bright in the Arctic; low on the horizon in central Scandinavia and southern Iceland.
- Kp 4 Active Overhead in the Arctic; low in the north from southern Norway, Sweden, Finland and northern Scotland.
- Kp 5 Minor storm (G1) eye in Cradle Mountain Scotland, southern Scandinavia, the Baltic states, the northern US states and southern Canada.
- Kp 6 Moderate storm (G2) Northern England, Denmark, northern Germany and Poland, the US Midwest — often clearer in photos than to the eye.
- Kp 7 Strong storm (G3) Most of the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Czechia; red glow in photos from France and the northern Alps.
- Kp 8 Severe storm (G4) Central Europe to the eye; red sky in photos from northern Italy, Spain, the Balkans and Turkey's Black Sea coast.
- Kp 9 Extreme storm (G5) Seen across Europe and the US; in photos as far south as the Mediterranean, Turkey and North Africa (May 2024).
Light pollution
Pristine dark sky. Almost no artificial light: faint aurora and the Milky Way are easy to see.
Estimate from NASA VIIRS night-light data (sky-glow model within 50 km). Check access and private land before you go.
Hills and mountains
The horizon towards the south is open (terrain below 2.4°), so low aurora is not blocked.
From elevation data (AWS Terrain Tiles) along seven lines of sight up to 30 km.
Best months to see the aurora in Cradle Mountain
Share of nights 2005–2025 that were dark, active enough here and mostly clear.
September has been the best month (4% of nights), followed by May (4%).
| Month | Good nights | Clear nights | Darkness | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March | 3% | 72% | 9.6 h | 6° / 16°C |
| April | 3% | 72% | 11.0 h | 4° / 12°C |
| May | 4% | 75% | 12.0 h | 3° / 9°C |
| June | 3% | 69% | 12.4 h | 2° / 7°C |
| July | 2% | 67% | 12.3 h | 1° / 6°C |
| August | 4% | 69% | 11.4 h | 1° / 7°C |
| September | 4% | 73% | 10.0 h | 1° / 8°C |
| October | 3% | 75% | 8.6 h | 2° / 11°C |
Aurora nights in Cradle Mountain since 1995
Nights when Kp reached 5 or more while it was dark here.
Most recent strong nights
- 10 October 2026 · Kp 7.3
- 4 October 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 18 August 2026 · Kp 5.3
- 8 August 2026 · Kp 6.0
- 2 August 2026 · Kp 5.7
- 23 July 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 4 July 2026 · Kp 6.7
- 5 June 2026 · Kp 6.0
Where to watch near Cradle Mountain
-
Dove Lake (boatshed)
Classic view across Dove Lake to Cradle Mountain, far from any town lights. · about 9 km · Open in OpenStreetMap
-
Lake Lilla
Smaller lake a short walk from Dove Lake car park with calm water for reflections. · about 9 km · Open in OpenStreetMap
-
Ronny Creek
Open buttongrass plain along Dove Lake Road with broad, unobstructed sky views. · about 6 km · Open in OpenStreetMap
Local knowledge
- The still waters of Dove Lake and Lake Lilla make mirror-like foregrounds for aurora and star photography.
- Private cars may drive the 9 km Dove Lake Road only outside shuttle-bus hours (roughly 9am-5pm in winter, 8am-6pm in summer), which suits night photography.
- There are only a handful of private parking spaces at Dove Lake, so arrive early in the evening.
- The alpine weather changes fast and it often snows in winter; bring full cold-weather gear even for a short session.
- Accommodation near the park entrance lets you head in quickly when aurora alerts are issued.
Campervans, motorhomes, caravans and trailers are never permitted on Dove Lake Road, even outside shuttle hours.
A valid parks pass is required to enter Cradle Mountain-Lake St Clair National Park.
Wombats, wallabies and pademelons are common on the road at night; drive slowly.
Practical information
- Typical low / high in September
- 1° / 8°C
- What to wear
- Cool nights: layers, a windproof jacket, hat and gloves for standing still outside. Full clothing guide
- Emergency number
- 000 (112 also works from mobile phones)
- Winter driving
- Under Victoria's Alpine Resorts (Management) Regulations 2020, every vehicle entering Falls Creek, Mt Baw Baw, Mt Buller, Mt Hotham and Mt Stirling must carry fitting wheel chains during the declared snow season (2026: 7 June - 4 October). Check VicTraffic for live Victorian road disruptions; in Tasmania, elevated roads get snow and ice in winter and closures are posted via Tasmania Police alerts / TasALERT. Road conditions
- Access to land
- Most Tasmanian national parks require a valid Parks & Wildlife Service parks pass per vehicle (24-hour, holiday/8-week, annual options; Cradle Mountain excluded from the 24-hour pass). Check land tenure before parking at night and respect any local closures.
- Official space-weather service
- Bureau of Meteorology Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre (Aurora Watch/Alert/Outlook)
- Weather service
- Bureau of Meteorology
Questions and answers
What Kp do you need to see the aurora in Cradle Mountain?
Cradle Mountain needs an active night: from about Kp 5 the aurora appears low over the south horizon, and it rises higher as activity grows.
Which way should I look for the aurora in Cradle Mountain?
Face south (about 188° from true north). At Kp 5 the lower edge of the aurora sits roughly 11° above the horizon; stronger activity lifts it higher and further across the sky.
What is the best month to see the aurora in Cradle Mountain?
Over 2005–2025, September gave the best odds in Cradle Mountain (4% of nights dark, active enough and mostly clear), followed by May (4%).
When is the aurora season in Cradle Mountain?
Cradle Mountain gets dark enough for the aurora all year round, though the long winter nights give the most hours to watch.
Is there much light pollution in Cradle Mountain?
Almost no artificial light: faint aurora and the Milky Way are easy to see.
When was the aurora last possible in Cradle Mountain?
The most recent night in our data when activity reached the level Cradle Mountain needs, during darkness, was 10 October 2026 (Kp 7.3). It has happened on 599 nights since 1995.
Also covered by this forecast
Villages and districts around Cradle Mountain share its forecast: within a few kilometres the sky, the Kp needed and the best direction are the same.
- Cradle Mountain 6 km
- Waldheim 8 km
- Daisy Dell 10 km
- Moina 14 km
- Lorinna 16 km
- Erriba 19 km
- Loongana 19 km
- Cethana 21 km
- South Nietta 22 km
- Kentish 24 km
- Nietta 25 km
- Liena 25 km
- Guildford Junction 27 km
- Preston South 29 km
- Mayberry 30 km
- Bulgobac 30 km
- Tullah 31 km
- Waratah 37 km
- Rosebery 40 km