Hokkaido, JapanMagnetic latitude 36.9°Population 115,33330 m above sea level
Can you see the northern lights in Otaru?
From Otaru the aurora is too low for the naked eye except in the most extreme storms, but in severe storms (about Kp 7.7 or more) cameras record a red glow low in the north. Strong enough for photos on 34 nights since 1995 — most recently on 20 January 2026.
Right now
Quiet right now (Kp 1.0).
Latest measured half-hour activity worldwide: Hp30 1.7.
Updates every minute while this page is open. Ground data: GFZ Potsdam Hp30 index (CC BY 4.0).
Tonight in one minute
Not tonight
- Solar activity Too weak: Kp 4.7 expected, 7.7 needed here.
- Sky Overcast (99% cloud).
- Darkness Dark from 17:46 to 04:55.
What to do: Not tonight — your next chance is shown just below.
Wednesday 21 October — No · Kp 4.7 · Forecast cloud: 99%. · Reliability: good
Each box is one night: the colour shows the chance, the number the expected Kp. Tap a night for details.
📅 Add these nights to your calendar — it updates itself (.ics)
How far ahead can the northern lights be forecast?
- Minutes to an hour: satellites 1.5 million km away measure the solar wind before it reaches Earth. This is the surest warning — the “Right now” box uses it.
- 1–3 days: when the Sun throws out a cloud of particles, it takes one to three days to arrive. NOAA's 3-hourly forecast covers these nights; the timing can still be off by a few hours.
- 4–27 days: the Sun turns once every 27 days, and regions that disturbed Earth's field last time often do it again. NOAA's 27-day outlook gives this rough trend — new eruptions are not in it yet.
Tonight
Updated 00:24 local time
Unlikely
Best around 00:00. Forecast max Kp 4.7 (this place needs 9+), average cloud 99%.
- Dark enough
- 17:46 – 04:55
- Sunset
- 16:44 · sunrise 05:57
- Moon
- 69% · ↑ 14:21 · ↓ 00:02
- Kp neededKp index: a 0–9 measure of geomagnetic activity. The higher it is, the further from the poles the aurora reaches.
- Kp 9+
- Kp for photos
- In photos: from Kp 7.7 (a red glow low in the north).
- Look towards
- north (356°)
Cloud layers and weather
Low cloud blocks the aurora completely. Thin high cloud often still lets a bright aurora shine through, so a sky with only high cloud is worth a look.
| Time | Wed, 00 | Wed, 03 | Wed, 18 | Wed, 21 | Thu, 00 | Thu, 03 | Thu, 18 | Thu, 21 | Fri, 00 | Fri, 03 | Fri, 18 | Fri, 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low cloud | 0% | 0% | 41% | 37% | 26% | 15% | 15% | 17% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Mid cloud | 59% | 67% | 19% | 4% | 0% | 2% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| High cloud | 66% | 57% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 34% | 61% |
| Temperature | 11 °C | 11 °C | 13 °C | 11 °C | 9 °C | 7 °C | 8 °C | 8 °C | 9 °C | 9 °C | 12 °C | 10 °C |
| Feels like | 11 °C | 11 °C | 13 °C | 11 °C | 4 °C | 1 °C | 3 °C | 4 °C | 5 °C | 5 °C | 12 °C | 9 °C |
| Wind | 2 m/s | 2 m/s | 7 m/s | 13 m/s | 14 m/s | 14 m/s | 12 m/s | 10 m/s | 9 m/s | 7 m/s | 4 m/s | 3 m/s |
Cloud layers and weather: Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0).
Score = activity (NOAA Kp and OVATION) × clear sky (MET Norway) × darkness × moonlight. Methodology
Weather in Otaru
The aurora only shows through clear skies, so the weather matters as much as the Kp index. Here is the general forecast for Otaru: temperature, wind and the chance of rain for the coming days.
Planning further ahead? See the hour-by-hour weather forecast for Otaru on Atlas of Seasons.
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What you would see from Otaru
Facing north. Bands show where the aurora sits at two activity levels.
| Kp | What you see | Lower edge | Ray tops | Distance to the aurora |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Below the horizon | -11° | -9° | 2,847 km |
| 3 | Below the horizon | -10° | -8° | 2,624 km |
| 4 | Below the horizon | -8° | -6° | 2,402 km |
| 5 | Below the horizon | -7° | -5° | 2,180 km |
| 6 | Below the horizon | -6° | -3° | 1,957 km |
| 7 | Below the horizon | -4° | -1° | 1,735 km |
| 8 | Faint glow, mostly on camera | -3° | 1° | 1,512 km |
| 9 | Faint glow, mostly on camera | -1° | 3° | 1,290 km |
The Kp scale in plain words
Kp is a 0–9 score for how strongly the Earth's magnetic field is being shaken by the solar wind. The higher it goes, the further from the poles the northern lights reach. Kp 0–2 is a quiet night; Kp 5 and above is a geomagnetic storm.
- Kp 0–2 Quiet Only under the auroral oval: northern Norway, Swedish and Finnish Lapland, Iceland, Alaska, northern Canada.
- Kp 3 Unsettled Bright in the Arctic; low on the horizon in central Scandinavia and southern Iceland.
- Kp 4 Active Overhead in the Arctic; low in the north from southern Norway, Sweden, Finland and northern Scotland.
- Kp 5 Minor storm (G1) next 24 h Scotland, southern Scandinavia, the Baltic states, the northern US states and southern Canada.
- Kp 6 Moderate storm (G2) Northern England, Denmark, northern Germany and Poland, the US Midwest — often clearer in photos than to the eye.
- Kp 7 Strong storm (G3) Most of the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Czechia; red glow in photos from France and the northern Alps.
- Kp 8 Severe storm (G4) camera in Otaru Central Europe to the eye; red sky in photos from northern Italy, Spain, the Balkans and Turkey's Black Sea coast.
- Kp 9 Extreme storm (G5) Seen across Europe and the US; in photos as far south as the Mediterranean, Turkey and North Africa (May 2024).
Light pollution
Bright suburban sky. Strong sky glow washes out faint aurora. Head out of town for anything but a bright display.
Estimate from NASA VIIRS night-light data (sky-glow model within 50 km). Check access and private land before you go.
Hills and mountains
Terrain is not modelled for this place.
From elevation data (AWS Terrain Tiles) along seven lines of sight up to 30 km.
Best months to see the aurora in Otaru
Share of nights 2005–2025 that were dark, active enough here and mostly clear.
Activity of Kp 9+ or more is too rare here for monthly odds to be meaningful. The table still shows how often nights are clear and dark.
| Month | Good nights | Clear nights | Darkness | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September | 0% | 48% | 9.3 h | 13° / 21°C |
| October | 0% | 33% | 10.9 h | 6° / 14°C |
| November | 0% | 12% | 12.0 h | -1° / 6°C |
| December | 0% | 3% | 12.6 h | -7° / -2°C |
| January | 0% | 2% | 12.3 h | -10° / -4°C |
| February | 0% | 8% | 11.1 h | -10° / -4°C |
| March | 0% | 25% | 9.9 h | -6° / 0°C |
| April | 0% | 45% | 8.3 h | 0° / 8°C |
Nights when Otaru could catch it in photos
Since 1995, nights with Kp 7.7 or more while it was dark here — a red or green glow low on the horizon.
- 20 January 2026 · Kp 7.7
- 19 January 2026 · Kp 8.3
- 12 November 2025 · Kp 7.7
- 1 January 2025 · Kp 8.0
- 11 October 2024 · Kp 7.7
- 10 October 2024 · Kp 8.3
- 12 August 2024 · Kp 8.0
- 28 June 2024 · Kp 7.7
- 11 May 2024 · Kp 8.7
- 10 May 2024 · Kp 7.7
- 24 March 2024 · Kp 8.3
- 4 November 2021 · Kp 7.7
Practical information
- Nearest airport
- Sapporo Okadama Airport (OKD) · 32 km
New Chitose Airport (CTS) · 73 km - Typical low / high in January
- -10° / -4°C
- What to wear
- Below freezing at night: thermal layers, a warm jacket, hat, gloves and winter boots. Full clothing guide
Questions and answers
What Kp do you need to see the aurora in Otaru?
From Otaru the aurora is too low for the naked eye except in the most extreme storms, but in severe storms (about Kp 7.7 or more) cameras record a red glow low in the north.
Which way should I look for the aurora in Otaru?
Around Otaru the aurora is often right overhead. Start by facing north, but look up and all around — in strong storms it can fill the whole sky and even appear behind you.
When is the aurora season in Otaru?
Otaru gets dark enough for the aurora all year round, though the long winter nights give the most hours to watch.
Is there much light pollution in Otaru?
Strong sky glow washes out faint aurora. Head out of town for anything but a bright display.
Also covered by this forecast
Villages and districts around Otaru share its forecast: within a few kilometres the sky, the Kp needed and the best direction are the same.
- Temiyachō 1 km
- Kita-hamachō 1 km
- Takashimachō 3 km
- Okusawachō 3 km
- Otaru Shi 4 km
- Minami-shukutsu 5 km
- Shioya 6 km
- Masari 6 km
- Asarichō 6 km
- Bungata 7 km
- Pommai 8 km
- Momonai 8 km
- Hariusu 10 km
- Oshoro 11 km
- Ranshima 12 km
- Hamanaka 14 km
- Zenibako 15 km
- Ōkawamachi 16 km
- Kurokawamachi 16 km
- Yoichi-gun 17 km
- Akaigawa Mura 17 km
- Hamanakachō 18 km
- Yoichi 19 km
- Akaigawa 19 km
- Yoichi-chō 20 km
- Niki 20 km
- Todoroki 21 km
- Detarihira 22 km
- Toyoha 23 km
- Shikaribetsu 23 km
- Niki Chō 24 km
- Ōe 26 km
- Okimura 27 km
- Ōekōzan 27 km
- Magumbetsu 28 km
- Ginzan 28 km
- Furubira 31 km
- Sawae 31 km
- Inakuraishikōzan 31 km
- Hama 31 km