Otago Region, New ZealandMagnetic latitude 53.0°Population 14,80020 m above sea level
Southern lights in Mosgiel
Mosgiel needs an active night: from about Kp 4.7 the aurora appears low over the south-south-west horizon, and it rises higher as activity grows. Since 1995 that level (Kp 4.7) was reached during darkness here on 815 nights.
Right now
The solar wind is picking up — activity may jump within the hour. Keep this page open.
Updates every minute while this page is open.
Tonight in one minute
Maybe — worth a look
- Solar activity Strong enough: Kp 4.7 expected, 4.7 needed here.
- Sky Partly cloudy (52% cloud) — look for gaps.
- Darkness Dark from 21:24 to 05:20. A bright moon (83%) washes out faint displays.
What to do: Go somewhere dark around 21:00, give your eyes 15 minutes to adjust and look south-south-west, low over the horizon.
Thursday 22 October — Good chance · Kp 4.7 · best around 21:30 · Forecast cloud: 52%. · Reliability: good
Each box is one night: the colour shows the chance, the number the expected Kp. Tap a night for details.
📅 Add these nights to your calendar — it updates itself (.ics)
How far ahead can the northern lights be forecast?
- Minutes to an hour: satellites 1.5 million km away measure the solar wind before it reaches Earth. This is the surest warning — the “Right now” box uses it.
- 1–3 days: when the Sun throws out a cloud of particles, it takes one to three days to arrive. NOAA's 3-hourly forecast covers these nights; the timing can still be off by a few hours.
- 4–27 days: the Sun turns once every 27 days, and regions that disturbed Earth's field last time often do it again. NOAA's 27-day outlook gives this rough trend — new eruptions are not in it yet.
Tonight
Updated 21:15 local time
Possible
Best around 21:00. Forecast max Kp 4.7 (this place needs 4.7), average cloud 52%.
- Dark enough
- 21:24 – 05:20
- Sunset
- 20:14 · sunrise 06:30
- Moon
- 83% · ↑ 15:38 · ↓ 04:54
- Kp neededKp index: a 0–9 measure of geomagnetic activity. The higher it is, the further from the poles the aurora reaches.
- Kp 4.7
- Kp for photos
- In photos: from Kp 3 (a red glow low in the south-south-west).
- Look towards
- south-south-west (196°)
Cloud layers and weather
Low cloud blocks the aurora completely. Thin high cloud often still lets a bright aurora shine through, so a sky with only high cloud is worth a look.
| Time | Thu, 21 | Fri, 00 | Fri, 03 | Fri, 21 | Sat, 00 | Sat, 03 | Sat, 21 | Sun, 00 | Sun, 03 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low cloud | 32% | 54% | 48% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Mid cloud | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 38% |
| High cloud | 34% | 18% | 18% | 76% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Temperature | 15 °C | 10 °C | 8 °C | 19 °C | 14 °C | 11 °C | 17 °C | 12 °C | 10 °C |
| Feels like | 15 °C | 10 °C | 8 °C | 19 °C | 14 °C | 11 °C | 17 °C | 12 °C | 9 °C |
| Wind | 4 m/s | 2 m/s | 1 m/s | 1 m/s | 1 m/s | 1 m/s | 0 m/s | 2 m/s | 2 m/s |
Cloud layers and weather: Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0).
Score = activity (NOAA Kp and OVATION) × clear sky (MET Norway) × darkness × moonlight. Methodology
Weather in Mosgiel
The aurora only shows through clear skies, so the weather matters as much as the Kp index. Here is the general forecast for Mosgiel: temperature, wind and the chance of rain for the coming days.
Planning further ahead? See the hour-by-hour weather forecast for Mosgiel on Atlas of Seasons.
Seeing it right now?
Tell others in Otago Region. Reports from real visitors move a place up the live ranking.
Reports are anonymous: we do not store your IP address or location. One report per place every few hours.
Do you host guests in Mosgiel? Give them a free aurora forecast page and a QR poster for your property. Create a guest page →
What you would see from Mosgiel
Facing south-south-west. Bands show where the aurora sits at two activity levels.
| Kp | What you see | Lower edge | Ray tops | Distance to the aurora |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Below the horizon | 1° | 6° | 1,056 km |
| 3 | Faint glow, mostly on camera | 3° | 10° | 834 km |
| 4 | Faint glow, mostly on camera | 7° | 15° | 612 km |
| 5 | Visible to the south-south-west | 13° | 25° | 389 km |
| 6 | Visible to the south-south-west | 31° | 49° | 167 km |
| 7 | Overhead and all around | – | – | – |
| 8 | Overhead and all around | – | – | – |
| 9 | Overhead, and also to the north-north-east | – | – | – |
The Kp scale in plain words
Kp is a 0–9 score for how strongly the Earth's magnetic field is being shaken by the solar wind. The higher it goes, the further from the poles the northern lights reach. Kp 0–2 is a quiet night; Kp 5 and above is a geomagnetic storm.
- Kp 0–2 Quiet Only under the auroral oval: northern Norway, Swedish and Finnish Lapland, Iceland, Alaska, northern Canada.
- Kp 3 Unsettled camera in Mosgiel Bright in the Arctic; low on the horizon in central Scandinavia and southern Iceland.
- Kp 4 Active Overhead in the Arctic; low in the north from southern Norway, Sweden, Finland and northern Scotland.
- Kp 5 Minor storm (G1) next 24 h eye in Mosgiel Scotland, southern Scandinavia, the Baltic states, the northern US states and southern Canada.
- Kp 6 Moderate storm (G2) Northern England, Denmark, northern Germany and Poland, the US Midwest — often clearer in photos than to the eye.
- Kp 7 Strong storm (G3) Most of the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Czechia; red glow in photos from France and the northern Alps.
- Kp 8 Severe storm (G4) Central Europe to the eye; red sky in photos from northern Italy, Spain, the Balkans and Turkey's Black Sea coast.
- Kp 9 Extreme storm (G5) Seen across Europe and the US; in photos as far south as the Mediterranean, Turkey and North Africa (May 2024).
Light pollution
Rural to suburban. Some sky glow from nearby lights. Moderate displays are fine; faint ones are easier a few kilometres out.
A noticeably darker area starts about 5 km to the north-west. Open in OpenStreetMap
Estimate from NASA VIIRS night-light data (sky-glow model within 50 km). Check access and private land before you go.
Hills and mountains
The terrain rises to about 4° above the horizon towards the south-south-west. That hides low aurora: here you need about Kp 4.7 instead of Kp 4.7. A hilltop, shore or open field with a clear view to the south-south-west helps.
From elevation data (AWS Terrain Tiles) along seven lines of sight up to 30 km.
Best months to see the aurora in Mosgiel
Share of nights 2005–2025 that were dark, active enough here and mostly clear.
May has been the best month (4% of nights), followed by April (3%).
| Month | Good nights | Clear nights | Darkness | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March | 3% | 39% | 9.3 h | 9° / 18°C |
| April | 3% | 42% | 11.0 h | 7° / 15°C |
| May | 4% | 40% | 12.3 h | 5° / 12°C |
| June | 2% | 42% | 12.8 h | 4° / 9°C |
| July | 2% | 44% | 12.6 h | 3° / 9°C |
| August | 2% | 36% | 11.5 h | 4° / 10°C |
| September | 2% | 37% | 9.9 h | 4° / 13°C |
| October | 0.6% | 34% | 8.3 h | 5° / 14°C |
Aurora nights in Mosgiel since 1995
Nights when Kp reached 4.7 or more while it was dark here.
Most recent strong nights
- 10 October 2026 · Kp 7.3
- 4 October 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 8 September 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 8 August 2026 · Kp 6.0
- 2 August 2026 · Kp 5.7
- 23 July 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 4 July 2026 · Kp 6.7
- 5 June 2026 · Kp 6.0
Practical information
- Nearest airport
- Dunedin International Airport (DUD) · 13 km
- Typical low / high in May
- 5° / 12°C
- What to wear
- Cool nights: layers, a windproof jacket, hat and gloves for standing still outside. Full clothing guide
- Emergency number
- 111 (free, works from mobiles without credit); 105 for non-emergency Police
- Winter driving
- NZTA advises anyone crossing alpine passes or travelling in the south and inland South Island in winter to carry chains and know how to fit them; from winter 2026 Queenstown Lakes District Council can fine drivers $750 for not fitting chains on council roads when 'chains required' signs are shown. Check NZTA Journey Planner for closures and 'chains essential' notices. Road conditions
- Access to land
- Freedom camping is allowed on DOC public conservation land unless a site is prohibited or restricted; scenic/recreation reserves are closed to it unless DOC provides a campsite, some sites are self-contained-vehicle only (from 7 June 2026 a green warrant card must be displayed), and breaches can be fined.
- Weather service
- MetService (Meteorological Service of New Zealand)
Questions and answers
What Kp do you need to see the aurora in Mosgiel?
Mosgiel needs an active night: from about Kp 4.7 the aurora appears low over the south-south-west horizon, and it rises higher as activity grows.
Which way should I look for the aurora in Mosgiel?
Face south-south-west (about 196° from true north). At Kp 4.7 the lower edge of the aurora sits roughly 13° above the horizon; stronger activity lifts it higher and further across the sky.
What is the best month to see the aurora in Mosgiel?
Over 2005–2025, May gave the best odds in Mosgiel (4% of nights dark, active enough and mostly clear), followed by April (3%).
When is the aurora season in Mosgiel?
Mosgiel gets dark enough for the aurora all year round, though the long winter nights give the most hours to watch.
Is there much light pollution in Mosgiel?
Some sky glow from nearby lights. Moderate displays are fine; faint ones are easier a few kilometres out. A noticeably darker area starts about 5 km to the north-west.
When was the aurora last possible in Mosgiel?
The most recent night in our data when activity reached the level Mosgiel needs, during darkness, was 10 October 2026 (Kp 7.3). It has happened on 815 nights since 1995.
Also covered by this forecast
Villages and districts around Mosgiel share its forecast: within a few kilometres the sky, the Kp needed and the best direction are the same.
- North Taieri 3 km
- Wylies Crossing 4 km
- Allanton 8 km
- Taioma 9 km
- Outram 9 km
- Momona 11 km
- Woodside 13 km
- Otokia 14 km
- Maungatua 16 km
- Hindon 16 km
- Traquair 17 km
- Hindon Railway 18 km
- Henley 18 km
- Wehenga 20 km
- Lee Stream 20 km
- Kiteroa 21 km
- Berwick 21 km
- Taieri Mouth 25 km
- Taieri Beach 26 km
- Dunedin City 27 km
- The Reefs 28 km
- Clarks 28 km
- Waipori Falls 29 km
- Pukerangi 29 km
- Mount Stoker 31 km
- Mowhiti 32 km
- Waipori 36 km
- Rocklands 37 km
- Sutton 39 km