North Dakota, United StatesMagnetic latitude 57.6°Population 1,244270 m above sea level
Northern lights in Cavalier
From Cavalier the aurora is visible on most active nights — first low to the north, from about Kp 2.3.
Right now
Activity is high enough for a camera right now: point your phone north, low over the horizon.
Latest measured half-hour activity worldwide: Hp30 2.7.
Updates every minute while this page is open. Ground data: GFZ Potsdam Hp30 index (CC BY 4.0).
Tonight in one minute
Yes — good chance tonight
- Solar activity Strong enough: Kp 4.7 expected, 2.3 needed here.
- Sky Mostly clear (3% cloud).
- Darkness Dark from 19:37 to 06:52. A bright moon (74%) washes out faint displays.
What to do: Go somewhere dark around 02:00, give your eyes 15 minutes to adjust and look north, low over the horizon.
Wednesday 21 October — Good chance · Kp 4.7 · best around 02:30 · Forecast cloud: 3%. · Reliability: good
Each box is one night: the colour shows the chance, the number the expected Kp. Tap a night for details.
📅 Add these nights to your calendar — it updates itself (.ics)
How far ahead can the northern lights be forecast?
- Minutes to an hour: satellites 1.5 million km away measure the solar wind before it reaches Earth. This is the surest warning — the “Right now” box uses it.
- 1–3 days: when the Sun throws out a cloud of particles, it takes one to three days to arrive. NOAA's 3-hourly forecast covers these nights; the timing can still be off by a few hours.
- 4–27 days: the Sun turns once every 27 days, and regions that disturbed Earth's field last time often do it again. NOAA's 27-day outlook gives this rough trend — new eruptions are not in it yet.
Tonight
Updated 01:39 local time
Excellent chance
Best around 02:00. Forecast max Kp 4.7 (this place needs 2.3), average cloud 3%.
- Dark enough
- 19:37 – 06:52
- Sunset
- 18:29 · sunrise 08:01
- Moon
- 74% · ↑ 16:38 · ↓ 02:30
- Kp neededKp index: a 0–9 measure of geomagnetic activity. The higher it is, the further from the poles the aurora reaches.
- Kp 2.3
- Kp for photos
- In photos: from Kp 0.7 (a red glow low in the north).
- Look towards
- north (6°)
Cloud layers and weather
Low cloud blocks the aurora completely. Thin high cloud often still lets a bright aurora shine through, so a sky with only high cloud is worth a look.
| Time | Wed, 01 | Wed, 04 | Wed, 19 | Wed, 22 | Thu, 01 | Thu, 04 | Thu, 19 | Thu, 22 | Fri, 01 | Fri, 04 | Fri, 19 | Fri, 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low cloud | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Mid cloud | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 19% | 36% | 31% | 89% | 47% |
| High cloud | 32% | 14% | 0% | 12% | 21% | 12% | 0% | 43% | 81% | 66% | 100% | 95% |
| Temperature | 11 °C | 7 °C | 10 °C | 9 °C | 7 °C | 5 °C | 16 °C | 15 °C | 14 °C | 13 °C | 21 °C | 21 °C |
| Feels like | 11 °C | 4 °C | 10 °C | 7 °C | 5 °C | 3 °C | 16 °C | 15 °C | 14 °C | 13 °C | 21 °C | 21 °C |
| Wind | 6 m/s | 5 m/s | 2 m/s | 2 m/s | 3 m/s | 3 m/s | 4 m/s | 4 m/s | 4 m/s | 4 m/s | 8 m/s | 9 m/s |
Cloud layers and weather: Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0).
Score = activity (NOAA Kp and OVATION) × clear sky (MET Norway) × darkness × moonlight. Methodology
Weather in Cavalier
The aurora only shows through clear skies, so the weather matters as much as the Kp index. Here is the general forecast for Cavalier: temperature, wind and the chance of rain for the coming days.
Planning further ahead? See the hour-by-hour weather forecast for Cavalier on Atlas of Seasons.
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What you would see from Cavalier
Facing north. Bands show where the aurora sits at two activity levels.
| Kp | What you see | Lower edge | Ray tops | Distance to the aurora |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Faint glow, mostly on camera | 8° | 17° | 545 km |
| 3 | Visible to the north | 16° | 30° | 322 km |
| 4 | Visible to the north | 46° | 63° | 100 km |
| 5 | Overhead and all around | – | – | – |
| 6 | Overhead, and also to the south | – | – | – |
| 7 | Overhead, and also to the south | – | – | – |
| 8 | Overhead, and also to the south | – | – | – |
| 9 | Overhead, and also to the south | – | – | – |
The Kp scale in plain words
Kp is a 0–9 score for how strongly the Earth's magnetic field is being shaken by the solar wind. The higher it goes, the further from the poles the northern lights reach. Kp 0–2 is a quiet night; Kp 5 and above is a geomagnetic storm.
- Kp 0–2 Quiet eye in Cavalier camera in Cavalier Only under the auroral oval: northern Norway, Swedish and Finnish Lapland, Iceland, Alaska, northern Canada.
- Kp 3 Unsettled Bright in the Arctic; low on the horizon in central Scandinavia and southern Iceland.
- Kp 4 Active Overhead in the Arctic; low in the north from southern Norway, Sweden, Finland and northern Scotland.
- Kp 5 Minor storm (G1) next 24 h Scotland, southern Scandinavia, the Baltic states, the northern US states and southern Canada.
- Kp 6 Moderate storm (G2) Northern England, Denmark, northern Germany and Poland, the US Midwest — often clearer in photos than to the eye.
- Kp 7 Strong storm (G3) Most of the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Czechia; red glow in photos from France and the northern Alps.
- Kp 8 Severe storm (G4) Central Europe to the eye; red sky in photos from northern Italy, Spain, the Balkans and Turkey's Black Sea coast.
- Kp 9 Extreme storm (G5) Seen across Europe and the US; in photos as far south as the Mediterranean, Turkey and North Africa (May 2024).
Light pollution
Rural to suburban. Some sky glow from nearby lights. Moderate displays are fine; faint ones are easier a few kilometres out.
A noticeably darker area starts about 5 km to the south. Open in OpenStreetMap
Estimate from NASA VIIRS night-light data (sky-glow model within 50 km). Check access and private land before you go.
Hills and mountains
Terrain is not modelled for this place.
From elevation data (AWS Terrain Tiles) along seven lines of sight up to 30 km.
Best months to see the aurora in Cavalier
Share of nights 2005–2025 that were dark, active enough here and mostly clear.
February has been the best month (34% of nights), followed by September (30%).
| Month | Good nights | Clear nights | Darkness | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September | 30% | 69% | 9.0 h | 9° / 21°C |
| October | 26% | 53% | 10.8 h | 1° / 12°C |
| November | 17% | 42% | 12.4 h | -7° / 2°C |
| December | 18% | 51% | 13.1 h | -16° / -7°C |
| January | 23% | 58% | 12.8 h | -19° / -10°C |
| February | 34% | 69% | 11.4 h | -19° / -8°C |
| March | 25% | 57% | 9.6 h | -9° / 2°C |
| April | 18% | 57% | 7.8 h | -1° / 11°C |
Aurora nights in Cavalier since 1995
Nights when Kp reached 4.7 or more while it was dark here.
Most recent strong nights
- 4 October 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 3 October 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 7 September 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 3 July 2026 · Kp 7.0
- 24 June 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 18 April 2026 · Kp 5.3
- 17 April 2026 · Kp 5.3
- 2 April 2026 · Kp 5.3
Practical information
- Nearest airport
- Winnipeg / James Armstrong Richardson International Airport (YWG) · 127 km
- Typical low / high in February
- -19° / -8°C
- What to wear
- Arctic cold: wool base layers, insulated jacket and trousers, warm boots, hat and mittens. Full clothing guide
- Emergency number
- 911
- Winter driving
- Tyre and chain rules are set at state level; check Alaska 511 (511.alaska.gov, Alaska DOT&PF) for Alaska roads, or the relevant state's 511 service elsewhere. Road conditions
- Access to land
- There is no general right to roam; trespass law is set by each state, so stay on public land (national parks, national forests, BLM land) or get the landowner's permission, and follow each park's night-time and parking rules.
- Official space-weather service
- NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (aurora dashboard)
- Weather service
- National Weather Service (NOAA)
Questions and answers
What Kp do you need to see the aurora in Cavalier?
From Cavalier the aurora is visible on most active nights — first low to the north, from about Kp 2.3.
Which way should I look for the aurora in Cavalier?
Face north (about 6° from true north). At Kp 2.3 the lower edge of the aurora sits roughly 16° above the horizon; stronger activity lifts it higher and further across the sky.
What is the best month to see the aurora in Cavalier?
Over 2005–2025, February gave the best odds in Cavalier (34% of nights dark, active enough and mostly clear), followed by September (30%).
When is the aurora season in Cavalier?
Cavalier gets dark enough for the aurora all year round, though the long winter nights give the most hours to watch.
Is there much light pollution in Cavalier?
Some sky glow from nearby lights. Moderate displays are fine; faint ones are easier a few kilometres out. A noticeably darker area starts about 5 km to the south.
When was the aurora last possible in Cavalier?
Activity last reached storm level (Kp 5 or more) during darkness in Cavalier on 4 October 2026 (Kp 5.0) — 915 such nights since 1995. Here the aurora also appears on many quieter nights.
Also covered by this forecast
Villages and districts around Cavalier share its forecast: within a few kilometres the sky, the Kp needed and the best direction are the same.
- City of Cavalier 0 km
- Township of Cavalier 5 km
- Pembina County 6 km
- Akra 8 km
- Backoo 8 km
- Township of Akra 10 km
- Township of Hamilton 10 km
- Township of Advance 11 km
- Township of Bathgate 12 km
- City of Canton City 12 km
- Hensel 12 km
- Hamilton 13 km
- City of Hamilton 13 km
- Township of Lodema 13 km
- Svold 13 km
- Bathgate 14 km
- City of Bathgate 15 km
- Hallson 15 km
- Glasston 16 km
- Township of Park 16 km
- Township of Felson 17 km
- Leroy 17 km
- Leyden 17 km
- Township of Carlisle 19 km
- Township of Neche 19 km
- Township of Saint Joseph 19 km
- Township of Beaulieu 20 km
- Township of La Moure 20 km
- Mountain 21 km
- Township of Saint Thomas 21 km
- Crystal 22 km
- City of Crystal 22 km
- City of Mountain 22 km
- Neche 22 km
- City of Neche 22 km
- Township of Thingvalla 22 km
- Township of Elora 23 km
- Concrete 24 km
- Hanks Corner 24 km
- Walhalla 26 km