Washington, United StatesMagnetic latitude 53.9°Population 8,4134 m above sea level
Northern lights in Birch Bay
Birch Bay needs an active night: from about Kp 4.3 the aurora appears low over the north-north-east horizon, and it rises higher as activity grows. Since 1995 storms of Kp 4.7 or more reached this place during darkness on 872 nights.
Right now
Quiet right now (Kp 2.0).
Updates every minute while this page is open.
Tonight in one minute
Not tonight
- Solar activity Strong enough: Kp 4.7 expected, 4.3 needed here.
- Sky Overcast (100% cloud).
- Darkness Dark from 19:18 to 06:33. A bright moon (83%) washes out faint displays.
What to do: Not tonight — your next chance is shown just below.
Saturday 31 October — Possible · Kp 5 · best around 00:00 · Forecast cloud: 60%. · Reliability: low (rough trend)
Each box is one night: the colour shows the chance, the number the expected Kp. Tap a night for details.
📅 Add these nights to your calendar — it updates itself (.ics)
How far ahead can the northern lights be forecast?
- Minutes to an hour: satellites 1.5 million km away measure the solar wind before it reaches Earth. This is the surest warning — the “Right now” box uses it.
- 1–3 days: when the Sun throws out a cloud of particles, it takes one to three days to arrive. NOAA's 3-hourly forecast covers these nights; the timing can still be off by a few hours.
- 4–27 days: the Sun turns once every 27 days, and regions that disturbed Earth's field last time often do it again. NOAA's 27-day outlook gives this rough trend — new eruptions are not in it yet.
Tonight
Updated 01:10 local time
Unlikely
Best around 01:00. Forecast max Kp 4.7 (this place needs 4.3), average cloud 100%.
- Dark enough
- 19:18 – 06:33
- Sunset
- 18:07 · sunrise 07:44
- Moon
- 83% · ↑ 16:34 · ↓ 03:28
- Kp neededKp index: a 0–9 measure of geomagnetic activity. The higher it is, the further from the poles the aurora reaches.
- Kp 4.3
- Kp for photos
- In photos: from Kp 2.7 (a red glow low in the north-north-east).
- Look towards
- north-north-east (16°)
Cloud layers and weather
Low cloud blocks the aurora completely. Thin high cloud often still lets a bright aurora shine through, so a sky with only high cloud is worth a look.
| Time | Thu, 01 | Thu, 04 | Thu, 19 | Thu, 22 | Fri, 01 | Fri, 04 | Fri, 19 | Fri, 22 | Sat, 01 | Sat, 04 | Sat, 19 | Sat, 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low cloud | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 42% | 16% |
| Mid cloud | 100% | 100% | 70% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 22% | 55% | 64% | 58% | 95% | 99% |
| High cloud | 88% | 98% | 70% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 21% | 62% | 76% | 73% | 42% | 40% |
| Temperature | 9 °C | 9 °C | 11 °C | 8 °C | 7 °C | 6 °C | 10 °C | 7 °C | 6 °C | 7 °C | 8 °C | 8 °C |
| Feels like | 9 °C | 9 °C | 11 °C | 8 °C | 7 °C | 6 °C | 10 °C | 7 °C | 6 °C | 7 °C | 6 °C | 6 °C |
| Wind | 1 m/s | 0 m/s | 2 m/s | 1 m/s | 1 m/s | 1 m/s | 1 m/s | 1 m/s | 1 m/s | 1 m/s | 3 m/s | 2 m/s |
Cloud layers and weather: Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0).
Score = activity (NOAA Kp and OVATION) × clear sky (MET Norway) × darkness × moonlight. Methodology
Weather in Birch Bay
The aurora only shows through clear skies, so the weather matters as much as the Kp index. Here is the general forecast for Birch Bay: temperature, wind and the chance of rain for the coming days.
Planning further ahead? See the hour-by-hour weather forecast for Birch Bay on Atlas of Seasons.
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What you would see from Birch Bay
Facing north-north-east. Bands show where the aurora sits at two activity levels.
| Kp | What you see | Lower edge | Ray tops | Distance to the aurora |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Below the horizon | 2° | 7° | 956 km |
| 3 | Faint glow, mostly on camera | 5° | 12° | 734 km |
| 4 | Faint glow, mostly on camera | 9° | 19° | 512 km |
| 5 | Visible to the north-north-east | 19° | 33° | 289 km |
| 6 | Visible to the north-north-east | 57° | 71° | 67 km |
| 7 | Overhead and all around | – | – | – |
| 8 | Overhead, and also to the south-south-west | – | – | – |
| 9 | Overhead, and also to the south-south-west | – | – | – |
The Kp scale in plain words
Kp is a 0–9 score for how strongly the Earth's magnetic field is being shaken by the solar wind. The higher it goes, the further from the poles the northern lights reach. Kp 0–2 is a quiet night; Kp 5 and above is a geomagnetic storm.
- Kp 0–2 Quiet Only under the auroral oval: northern Norway, Swedish and Finnish Lapland, Iceland, Alaska, northern Canada.
- Kp 3 Unsettled camera in Birch Bay Bright in the Arctic; low on the horizon in central Scandinavia and southern Iceland.
- Kp 4 Active eye in Birch Bay Overhead in the Arctic; low in the north from southern Norway, Sweden, Finland and northern Scotland.
- Kp 5 Minor storm (G1) next 24 h Scotland, southern Scandinavia, the Baltic states, the northern US states and southern Canada.
- Kp 6 Moderate storm (G2) Northern England, Denmark, northern Germany and Poland, the US Midwest — often clearer in photos than to the eye.
- Kp 7 Strong storm (G3) Most of the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Czechia; red glow in photos from France and the northern Alps.
- Kp 8 Severe storm (G4) Central Europe to the eye; red sky in photos from northern Italy, Spain, the Balkans and Turkey's Black Sea coast.
- Kp 9 Extreme storm (G5) Seen across Europe and the US; in photos as far south as the Mediterranean, Turkey and North Africa (May 2024).
Light pollution
Dark rural sky. Little artificial light. Faint displays are visible once your eyes have adapted.
Estimate from NASA VIIRS night-light data (sky-glow model within 50 km). Check access and private land before you go.
Hills and mountains
The horizon towards the north-north-east is open (terrain below 2.2°), so low aurora is not blocked.
From elevation data (AWS Terrain Tiles) along seven lines of sight up to 30 km.
Best months to see the aurora in Birch Bay
Share of nights 2005–2025 that were dark, active enough here and mostly clear.
September has been the best month (4% of nights), followed by August (3%).
| Month | Good nights | Clear nights | Darkness | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September | 4% | 57% | 9.0 h | 13° / 18°C |
| October | 2% | 38% | 10.8 h | 9° / 13°C |
| November | 1% | 22% | 12.4 h | 5° / 9°C |
| December | 0.5% | 25% | 13.1 h | 3° / 6°C |
| January | 0.5% | 25% | 12.8 h | 3° / 6°C |
| February | 2% | 32% | 11.4 h | 3° / 7°C |
| March | 2% | 26% | 9.6 h | 5° / 9°C |
| April | 3% | 33% | 7.8 h | 6° / 12°C |
Aurora nights in Birch Bay since 1995
Nights when Kp reached 4.7 or more while it was dark here.
Most recent strong nights
- 4 October 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 3 October 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 7 September 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 3 July 2026 · Kp 6.3
- 18 April 2026 · Kp 5.3
- 17 April 2026 · Kp 5.3
- 2 April 2026 · Kp 5.3
- 1 April 2026 · Kp 5.0
Practical information
- Nearest airport
- Bellingham International Airport (BLI) · 21 km
Vancouver International Airport (YVR) · 44 km - Typical low / high in September
- 13° / 18°C
- What to wear
- Cool nights: layers, a windproof jacket, hat and gloves for standing still outside. Full clothing guide
- Emergency number
- 911
- Winter driving
- Tyre and chain rules are set at state level; check Alaska 511 (511.alaska.gov, Alaska DOT&PF) for Alaska roads, or the relevant state's 511 service elsewhere. Road conditions
- Access to land
- There is no general right to roam; trespass law is set by each state, so stay on public land (national parks, national forests, BLM land) or get the landowner's permission, and follow each park's night-time and parking rules.
- Official space-weather service
- NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (aurora dashboard)
- Weather service
- National Weather Service (NOAA)
Questions and answers
What Kp do you need to see the aurora in Birch Bay?
Birch Bay needs an active night: from about Kp 4.3 the aurora appears low over the north-north-east horizon, and it rises higher as activity grows.
Which way should I look for the aurora in Birch Bay?
Face north-north-east (about 16° from true north). At Kp 4.3 the lower edge of the aurora sits roughly 19° above the horizon; stronger activity lifts it higher and further across the sky.
What is the best month to see the aurora in Birch Bay?
Over 2005–2025, September gave the best odds in Birch Bay (4% of nights dark, active enough and mostly clear), followed by August (3%).
When is the aurora season in Birch Bay?
Birch Bay gets dark enough for the aurora all year round, though the long winter nights give the most hours to watch.
Is there much light pollution in Birch Bay?
Little artificial light. Faint displays are visible once your eyes have adapted.
When was the aurora last possible in Birch Bay?
Activity last reached storm level (Kp 5 or more) during darkness in Birch Bay on 4 October 2026 (Kp 5.0) — 872 such nights since 1995. Here the aurora also appears on many quieter nights.
Also covered by this forecast
Villages and districts around Birch Bay share its forecast: within a few kilometres the sky, the Kp needed and the best direction are the same.
- Edgewater Resort and Trailer Park 2 km
- Cottonwood Beach 3 km
- Pleasant Valley 3 km
- Kickerville 5 km