North Dakota, United StatesMagnetic latitude 54.8°Population 1,299443 m above sea level
Northern lights in Ellendale
Ellendale needs an active night: from about Kp 3.7 the aurora appears low over the north horizon, and it rises higher as activity grows. Since 1995 storms of Kp 4.7 or more reached this place during darkness on 918 nights.
Right now
It is still light here. Darkness starts at 19:40.
Latest measured half-hour activity worldwide: Hp30 3.
Updates every minute while this page is open. Ground data: GFZ Potsdam Hp30 index (CC BY 4.0).
Tonight in one minute
Yes — good chance tonight
- Solar activity Strong enough: Kp 3.7 expected, 3.7 needed here.
- Sky Mostly clear (23% cloud).
- Darkness Dark from 19:40 to 06:56. A bright moon (87%) washes out faint displays.
What to do: Go somewhere dark around 21:00, give your eyes 15 minutes to adjust and look north, low over the horizon.
Thursday 22 October — Possible · Kp 3.7 · best around 20:30 · Forecast cloud: 23%. · Reliability: good
Each box is one night: the colour shows the chance, the number the expected Kp. Tap a night for details.
📅 Add these nights to your calendar — it updates itself (.ics)
How far ahead can the northern lights be forecast?
- Minutes to an hour: satellites 1.5 million km away measure the solar wind before it reaches Earth. This is the surest warning — the “Right now” box uses it.
- 1–3 days: when the Sun throws out a cloud of particles, it takes one to three days to arrive. NOAA's 3-hourly forecast covers these nights; the timing can still be off by a few hours.
- 4–27 days: the Sun turns once every 27 days, and regions that disturbed Earth's field last time often do it again. NOAA's 27-day outlook gives this rough trend — new eruptions are not in it yet.
Tonight
Updated 17:10 local time
Good chance
Best around 21:00. Forecast max Kp 3.7 (this place needs 3.7), average cloud 23%.
- Dark enough
- 19:40 – 06:56
- Sunset
- 18:35 · sunrise 08:02
- Moon
- 87% · ↑ 16:55 · ↓ 05:01
- Kp neededKp index: a 0–9 measure of geomagnetic activity. The higher it is, the further from the poles the aurora reaches.
- Kp 3.7
- Kp for photos
- In photos: from Kp 2 (a red glow low in the north).
- Look towards
- north (8°)
Cloud layers and weather
Low cloud blocks the aurora completely. Thin high cloud often still lets a bright aurora shine through, so a sky with only high cloud is worth a look.
| Time | Thu, 19 | Thu, 22 | Fri, 01 | Fri, 04 | Fri, 19 | Fri, 22 | Sat, 01 | Sat, 04 | Sat, 19 | Sat, 22 | Sun, 01 | Sun, 04 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low cloud | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Mid cloud | 13% | 32% | 46% | 36% | 100% | 51% | 0% | 7% | 57% | 61% | 64% | 59% |
| High cloud | 16% | 24% | 32% | 40% | 85% | 46% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 2% | 9% | 33% |
| Temperature | 19 °C | 18 °C | 17 °C | 16 °C | 24 °C | 24 °C | 22 °C | 17 °C | 9 °C | 7 °C | 5 °C | 4 °C |
| Feels like | 19 °C | 18 °C | 17 °C | 16 °C | 24 °C | 24 °C | 22 °C | 17 °C | 7 °C | 5 °C | 3 °C | 2 °C |
| Wind | 4 m/s | 4 m/s | 5 m/s | 5 m/s | 9 m/s | 10 m/s | 10 m/s | 6 m/s | 3 m/s | 3 m/s | 3 m/s | 3 m/s |
Cloud layers and weather: Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0).
Score = activity (NOAA Kp and OVATION) × clear sky (MET Norway) × darkness × moonlight. Methodology
Weather in Ellendale
The aurora only shows through clear skies, so the weather matters as much as the Kp index. Here is the general forecast for Ellendale: temperature, wind and the chance of rain for the coming days.
Planning further ahead? See the hour-by-hour weather forecast for Ellendale on Atlas of Seasons.
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What you would see from Ellendale
Facing north. Bands show where the aurora sits at two activity levels.
| Kp | What you see | Lower edge | Ray tops | Distance to the aurora |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Faint glow, mostly on camera | 3° | 9° | 856 km |
| 3 | Faint glow, mostly on camera | 6° | 14° | 634 km |
| 4 | Visible to the north | 12° | 24° | 411 km |
| 5 | Visible to the north | 28° | 45° | 189 km |
| 6 | Overhead and all around | – | – | – |
| 7 | Overhead and all around | – | – | – |
| 8 | Overhead, and also to the south | – | – | – |
| 9 | Overhead, and also to the south | – | – | – |
The Kp scale in plain words
Kp is a 0–9 score for how strongly the Earth's magnetic field is being shaken by the solar wind. The higher it goes, the further from the poles the northern lights reach. Kp 0–2 is a quiet night; Kp 5 and above is a geomagnetic storm.
- Kp 0–2 Quiet camera in Ellendale Only under the auroral oval: northern Norway, Swedish and Finnish Lapland, Iceland, Alaska, northern Canada.
- Kp 3 Unsettled Bright in the Arctic; low on the horizon in central Scandinavia and southern Iceland.
- Kp 4 Active next 24 h eye in Ellendale Overhead in the Arctic; low in the north from southern Norway, Sweden, Finland and northern Scotland.
- Kp 5 Minor storm (G1) Scotland, southern Scandinavia, the Baltic states, the northern US states and southern Canada.
- Kp 6 Moderate storm (G2) Northern England, Denmark, northern Germany and Poland, the US Midwest — often clearer in photos than to the eye.
- Kp 7 Strong storm (G3) Most of the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Czechia; red glow in photos from France and the northern Alps.
- Kp 8 Severe storm (G4) Central Europe to the eye; red sky in photos from northern Italy, Spain, the Balkans and Turkey's Black Sea coast.
- Kp 9 Extreme storm (G5) Seen across Europe and the US; in photos as far south as the Mediterranean, Turkey and North Africa (May 2024).
Light pollution
Rural to suburban. Some sky glow from nearby lights. Moderate displays are fine; faint ones are easier a few kilometres out.
A noticeably darker area starts about 5 km to the north-west. Open in OpenStreetMap
Estimate from NASA VIIRS night-light data (sky-glow model within 50 km). Check access and private land before you go.
Hills and mountains
Terrain is not modelled for this place.
From elevation data (AWS Terrain Tiles) along seven lines of sight up to 30 km.
Best months to see the aurora in Ellendale
Share of nights 2005–2025 that were dark, active enough here and mostly clear.
September has been the best month (17% of nights), followed by February (14%).
| Month | Good nights | Clear nights | Darkness | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September | 17% | 77% | 9.1 h | 11° / 24°C |
| October | 14% | 62% | 10.9 h | 3° / 14°C |
| November | 9% | 52% | 12.0 h | -5° / 5°C |
| December | 7% | 49% | 12.6 h | -12° / -4°C |
| January | 8% | 59% | 12.4 h | -15° / -5°C |
| February | 14% | 61% | 11.4 h | -14° / -3°C |
| March | 12% | 52% | 9.9 h | -6° / 6°C |
| April | 9% | 55% | 7.9 h | 0° / 13°C |
Aurora nights in Ellendale since 1995
Nights when Kp reached 4.7 or more while it was dark here.
Most recent strong nights
- 4 October 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 3 October 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 7 September 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 3 July 2026 · Kp 7.0
- 24 June 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 18 April 2026 · Kp 5.3
- 17 April 2026 · Kp 5.3
- 2 April 2026 · Kp 5.3
Practical information
- Nearest airport
- Aberdeen Regional Airport (ABR) · 62 km
- Typical low / high in September
- 11° / 24°C
- What to wear
- Cool nights: layers, a windproof jacket, hat and gloves for standing still outside. Full clothing guide
- Emergency number
- 911
- Winter driving
- Tyre and chain rules are set at state level; check Alaska 511 (511.alaska.gov, Alaska DOT&PF) for Alaska roads, or the relevant state's 511 service elsewhere. Road conditions
- Access to land
- There is no general right to roam; trespass law is set by each state, so stay on public land (national parks, national forests, BLM land) or get the landowner's permission, and follow each park's night-time and parking rules.
- Official space-weather service
- NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (aurora dashboard)
- Weather service
- National Weather Service (NOAA)
Questions and answers
What Kp do you need to see the aurora in Ellendale?
Ellendale needs an active night: from about Kp 3.7 the aurora appears low over the north horizon, and it rises higher as activity grows.
Which way should I look for the aurora in Ellendale?
Face north (about 8° from true north). At Kp 3.7 the lower edge of the aurora sits roughly 12° above the horizon; stronger activity lifts it higher and further across the sky.
What is the best month to see the aurora in Ellendale?
Over 2005–2025, September gave the best odds in Ellendale (17% of nights dark, active enough and mostly clear), followed by February (14%).
When is the aurora season in Ellendale?
Ellendale gets dark enough for the aurora all year round, though the long winter nights give the most hours to watch.
Is there much light pollution in Ellendale?
Some sky glow from nearby lights. Moderate displays are fine; faint ones are easier a few kilometres out. A noticeably darker area starts about 5 km to the north-west.
When was the aurora last possible in Ellendale?
Activity last reached storm level (Kp 5 or more) during darkness in Ellendale on 4 October 2026 (Kp 5.0) — 918 such nights since 1995. Here the aurora also appears on many quieter nights.
Also covered by this forecast
Villages and districts around Ellendale share its forecast: within a few kilometres the sky, the Kp needed and the best direction are the same.
- City of Ellendale 0 km
- Township of Ellendale 4 km
- Township of Van Meter 7 km
- Duane 8 km
- Township of Elden 8 km
- Winship 9 km
- Township of Kentner 10 km
- Maple River Colony 10 km
- Silverleaf 11 km
- Dickey County 12 km
- Township of Osceola 12 km
- Township of Elm 13 km
- Township of Albion 15 km
- Township of Savo 15 km
- Township of Ada 16 km
- Township of Palmyra 16 km
- Boynton 17 km
- Township of Keystone 17 km
- Township of Kent 18 km
- Township of Maple 18 km
- City of Fullerton 19 km
- Frederick 19 km
- Town of Frederick 19 km
- Fullerton 20 km
- Monango 20 km
- City of Monango 20 km
- Forbes 21 km
- City of Forbes 21 km
- Township of Hamburg 21 km
- Township of Frederick 22 km
- Township of Lorraine 23 km
- Township of Liberty 23 km
- Township of Richland 23 km
- Township of Wachter 23 km
- Township of Grand Valley 24 km
- Township of Allison 24 km
- Township of Porter 27 km
- Township of Valley 27 km
- Township of Whitestone 28 km
- Merricourt 29 km