North Dakota, United StatesMagnetic latitude 55.0°Population 1,797400 m above sea level
Northern lights in Oakes
Oakes needs an active night: from about Kp 3.7 the aurora appears low over the north horizon, and it rises higher as activity grows. Since 1995 storms of Kp 4.7 or more reached this place during darkness on 918 nights.
Right now
It is still light here. Darkness starts at 19:40.
Updates every minute while this page is open.
Tonight in one minute
Yes — good chance tonight
- Solar activity Strong enough: Kp 4 expected, 3.7 needed here.
- Sky Mostly clear (32% cloud).
- Darkness Dark from 19:40 to 06:53. A bright moon (78%) washes out faint displays.
What to do: Go somewhere dark around 00:00, give your eyes 15 minutes to adjust and look north, low over the horizon.
Wednesday 21 October — Good chance · Kp 4 · best around 20:30 · Forecast cloud: 32%. · Reliability: medium
Each box is one night: the colour shows the chance, the number the expected Kp. Tap a night for details.
📅 Add these nights to your calendar — it updates itself (.ics)
How far ahead can the northern lights be forecast?
- Minutes to an hour: satellites 1.5 million km away measure the solar wind before it reaches Earth. This is the surest warning — the “Right now” box uses it.
- 1–3 days: when the Sun throws out a cloud of particles, it takes one to three days to arrive. NOAA's 3-hourly forecast covers these nights; the timing can still be off by a few hours.
- 4–27 days: the Sun turns once every 27 days, and regions that disturbed Earth's field last time often do it again. NOAA's 27-day outlook gives this rough trend — new eruptions are not in it yet.
Tonight
Updated 13:08 local time
Good chance
Best around 00:00. Forecast max Kp 4.0 (this place needs 3.7), average cloud 32%.
- Dark enough
- 19:40 – 06:53
- Sunset
- 18:35 · sunrise 07:59
- Moon
- 78% · ↑ 16:36 · ↓ 03:48
- Kp neededKp index: a 0–9 measure of geomagnetic activity. The higher it is, the further from the poles the aurora reaches.
- Kp 3.7
- Kp for photos
- In photos: from Kp 2 (a red glow low in the north).
- Look towards
- north (6°)
Cloud layers and weather
Low cloud blocks the aurora completely. Thin high cloud often still lets a bright aurora shine through, so a sky with only high cloud is worth a look.
| Time | Wed, 19 | Wed, 22 | Thu, 01 | Thu, 04 | Thu, 19 | Thu, 22 | Fri, 01 | Fri, 04 | Fri, 19 | Fri, 22 | Sat, 01 | Sat, 04 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low cloud | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Mid cloud | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12% | 26% | 36% | 26% | 100% | 61% | 18% | 24% |
| High cloud | 100% | 54% | 0% | 0% | 19% | 20% | 20% | 27% | 71% | 71% | 58% | 24% |
| Temperature | 13 °C | 11 °C | 10 °C | 8 °C | 19 °C | 18 °C | 17 °C | 16 °C | 25 °C | 24 °C | 23 °C | 20 °C |
| Feels like | 13 °C | 11 °C | 8 °C | 7 °C | 19 °C | 18 °C | 17 °C | 16 °C | 25 °C | 24 °C | 23 °C | 20 °C |
| Wind | 3 m/s | 2 m/s | 2 m/s | 2 m/s | 4 m/s | 4 m/s | 4 m/s | 4 m/s | 8 m/s | 9 m/s | 10 m/s | 6 m/s |
Cloud layers and weather: Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0).
Score = activity (NOAA Kp and OVATION) × clear sky (MET Norway) × darkness × moonlight. Methodology
Weather in Oakes
The aurora only shows through clear skies, so the weather matters as much as the Kp index. Here is the general forecast for Oakes: temperature, wind and the chance of rain for the coming days.
Planning further ahead? See the hour-by-hour weather forecast for Oakes on Atlas of Seasons.
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What you would see from Oakes
Facing north. Bands show where the aurora sits at two activity levels.
| Kp | What you see | Lower edge | Ray tops | Distance to the aurora |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Faint glow, mostly on camera | 3° | 10° | 834 km |
| 3 | Faint glow, mostly on camera | 7° | 15° | 612 km |
| 4 | Visible to the north | 13° | 25° | 389 km |
| 5 | Visible to the north | 31° | 49° | 167 km |
| 6 | Overhead and all around | – | – | – |
| 7 | Overhead and all around | – | – | – |
| 8 | Overhead, and also to the south | – | – | – |
| 9 | Overhead, and also to the south | – | – | – |
The Kp scale in plain words
Kp is a 0–9 score for how strongly the Earth's magnetic field is being shaken by the solar wind. The higher it goes, the further from the poles the northern lights reach. Kp 0–2 is a quiet night; Kp 5 and above is a geomagnetic storm.
- Kp 0–2 Quiet camera in Oakes Only under the auroral oval: northern Norway, Swedish and Finnish Lapland, Iceland, Alaska, northern Canada.
- Kp 3 Unsettled Bright in the Arctic; low on the horizon in central Scandinavia and southern Iceland.
- Kp 4 Active next 24 h eye in Oakes Overhead in the Arctic; low in the north from southern Norway, Sweden, Finland and northern Scotland.
- Kp 5 Minor storm (G1) Scotland, southern Scandinavia, the Baltic states, the northern US states and southern Canada.
- Kp 6 Moderate storm (G2) Northern England, Denmark, northern Germany and Poland, the US Midwest — often clearer in photos than to the eye.
- Kp 7 Strong storm (G3) Most of the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Czechia; red glow in photos from France and the northern Alps.
- Kp 8 Severe storm (G4) Central Europe to the eye; red sky in photos from northern Italy, Spain, the Balkans and Turkey's Black Sea coast.
- Kp 9 Extreme storm (G5) Seen across Europe and the US; in photos as far south as the Mediterranean, Turkey and North Africa (May 2024).
Light pollution
Rural to suburban. Some sky glow from nearby lights. Moderate displays are fine; faint ones are easier a few kilometres out.
A noticeably darker area starts about 5 km to the north-west. Open in OpenStreetMap
Estimate from NASA VIIRS night-light data (sky-glow model within 50 km). Check access and private land before you go.
Hills and mountains
The horizon towards the north is open (terrain below 0.1°), so low aurora is not blocked.
From elevation data (AWS Terrain Tiles) along seven lines of sight up to 30 km.
Best months to see the aurora in Oakes
Share of nights 2005–2025 that were dark, active enough here and mostly clear.
September has been the best month (17% of nights), followed by October (14%).
| Month | Good nights | Clear nights | Darkness | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September | 17% | 77% | 9.1 h | 11° / 24°C |
| October | 14% | 62% | 10.9 h | 3° / 14°C |
| November | 9% | 51% | 12.0 h | -4° / 5°C |
| December | 7% | 45% | 12.6 h | -12° / -4°C |
| January | 9% | 59% | 12.4 h | -16° / -6°C |
| February | 14% | 61% | 11.4 h | -14° / -3°C |
| March | 13% | 52% | 9.9 h | -6° / 6°C |
| April | 9% | 56% | 7.9 h | 0° / 13°C |
Aurora nights in Oakes since 1995
Nights when Kp reached 4.7 or more while it was dark here.
Most recent strong nights
- 4 October 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 3 October 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 7 September 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 3 July 2026 · Kp 7.0
- 24 June 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 18 April 2026 · Kp 5.3
- 17 April 2026 · Kp 5.3
- 2 April 2026 · Kp 5.3
Practical information
- Nearest airport
- Aberdeen Regional Airport (ABR) · 81 km
- Typical low / high in September
- 11° / 24°C
- What to wear
- Cool nights: layers, a windproof jacket, hat and gloves for standing still outside. Full clothing guide
- Emergency number
- 911
- Winter driving
- Tyre and chain rules are set at state level; check Alaska 511 (511.alaska.gov, Alaska DOT&PF) for Alaska roads, or the relevant state's 511 service elsewhere. Road conditions
- Access to land
- There is no general right to roam; trespass law is set by each state, so stay on public land (national parks, national forests, BLM land) or get the landowner's permission, and follow each park's night-time and parking rules.
- Official space-weather service
- NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (aurora dashboard)
- Weather service
- National Weather Service (NOAA)
Questions and answers
What Kp do you need to see the aurora in Oakes?
Oakes needs an active night: from about Kp 3.7 the aurora appears low over the north horizon, and it rises higher as activity grows.
Which way should I look for the aurora in Oakes?
Face north (about 6° from true north). At Kp 3.7 the lower edge of the aurora sits roughly 13° above the horizon; stronger activity lifts it higher and further across the sky.
What is the best month to see the aurora in Oakes?
Over 2005–2025, September gave the best odds in Oakes (17% of nights dark, active enough and mostly clear), followed by October (14%).
When is the aurora season in Oakes?
Oakes gets dark enough for the aurora all year round, though the long winter nights give the most hours to watch.
Is there much light pollution in Oakes?
Some sky glow from nearby lights. Moderate displays are fine; faint ones are easier a few kilometres out. A noticeably darker area starts about 5 km to the north-west.
When was the aurora last possible in Oakes?
Activity last reached storm level (Kp 5 or more) during darkness in Oakes on 4 October 2026 (Kp 5.0) — 918 such nights since 1995. Here the aurora also appears on many quieter nights.
Also covered by this forecast
Villages and districts around Oakes share its forecast: within a few kilometres the sky, the Kp needed and the best direction are the same.
- City of Oakes 0 km
- Township of Bear Creek 3 km
- Norway 4 km
- Township of Clement 8 km
- Township of Riverdale 8 km
- Hample 9 km
- Township of Divide 11 km
- Township of Hudson 11 km
- Township of Verner 11 km
- Clement 12 km
- Crete 12 km
- Glover 12 km
- Township of Jackson 14 km
- Township of James River Valley 14 km
- Ludden 15 km
- City of Ludden 15 km
- Township of Denver 16 km
- Guelph 17 km
- Nicholson 17 km
- Township of Lovell 18 km
- Straubville 18 km
- Township of Yorktown 18 km
- Township of Port Emma 20 km
- Township of Harlem 21 km
- Township of Ovid 21 km
- Township of Southwest 21 km
- Township of Wright 21 km
- Township of Sargent 22 km
- Township of Isley 23 km
- Township of Ryan 23 km
- Stirum 23 km
- Cogswell 24 km
- City of Cogswell 24 km
- Independence 24 km
- Township of Vivian 24 km
- Verona 25 km
- City of Verona 25 km
- Township of Hecla 28 km
- Township of Dean 29 km
- LaMoure 29 km