Tasmania, AustraliaMagnetic latitude 53.4°Population 1,337122 m above sea level
Southern lights in Bagdad
Bagdad needs an active night: from about Kp 4.3 the aurora appears low over the south horizon, and it rises higher as activity grows. Since 1995 storms of Kp 4.7 or more reached this place during darkness on 860 nights.
Right now
It is still light here. Darkness starts at 20:40.
Latest measured half-hour activity worldwide: Hp30 0.3.
Updates every minute while this page is open. Ground data: GFZ Potsdam Hp30 index (CC BY 4.0).
Tonight in one minute
Not tonight
- Solar activity Too weak: Kp 2 expected, 4.3 needed here.
- Sky Mostly clear (1% cloud).
- Darkness Dark from 20:40 to 05:12.
What to do: Not tonight — your next chance is shown just below.
- Detailed forecast Sat 17 2 No · Kp 2
- Sun 18 1.3 No · Kp 1.3
- Mon 19 1.7 No · Kp 1.7
- 27-day trend Tue 20 2 No · Kp 2
- Wed 21 3 Unlikely · Kp 3
- Thu 22 4 Photos only · Kp 4
- Fri 23 4 Photos only · Kp 4
- Sat 24 3 Photos only · Kp 3
- Sun 25 2 No · Kp 2
- Mon 26 2 No · Kp 2
- Tue 27 2 No · Kp 2
- Wed 28 2 No · Kp 2
- Thu 29 2 No · Kp 2
- Fri 30 2 No · Kp 2
- Sat 31 5 Good chance · Kp 5
- Sun 1 5 Good chance · Kp 5
- Mon 2 3 Photos only · Kp 3
- Tue 3 2 No · Kp 2
- Wed 4 2 No · Kp 2
- Thu 5 2 No · Kp 2
- Fri 6 3 Photos only · Kp 3
- Sat 7 3 Photos only · Kp 3
Sunday 1 November — Good chance · Kp 5 · best around 00:00 · No cloud forecast this far ahead; in October about 64% of nights are clear here. · Reliability: low (rough trend)
Each box is one night: the colour shows the chance, the number the expected Kp. Tap a night for details.
📅 Add these nights to your calendar — it updates itself (.ics)
How far ahead can the northern lights be forecast?
- Minutes to an hour: satellites 1.5 million km away measure the solar wind before it reaches Earth. This is the surest warning — the “Right now” box uses it.
- 1–3 days: when the Sun throws out a cloud of particles, it takes one to three days to arrive. NOAA's 3-hourly forecast covers these nights; the timing can still be off by a few hours.
- 4–27 days: the Sun turns once every 27 days, and regions that disturbed Earth's field last time often do it again. NOAA's 27-day outlook gives this rough trend — new eruptions are not in it yet.
Tonight
Updated 18:10 local time
Unlikely
Best around 21:00. Forecast max Kp 2.0 (this place needs 4.3), average cloud 1%.
- Dark enough
- 20:40 – 05:12
- Sunset
- 19:35 · sunrise 06:16
- Moon
- 37% · ↑ 10:57 · ↓ 02:12
- Kp neededKp index: a 0–9 measure of geomagnetic activity. The higher it is, the further from the poles the aurora reaches.
- Kp 4.3
- Kp for photos
- In photos: from Kp 2.7 (a red glow low in the south).
- Look towards
- south (188°)
Cloud layers and weather
Low cloud blocks the aurora completely. Thin high cloud often still lets a bright aurora shine through, so a sky with only high cloud is worth a look.
| Time | Sat, 20 | Sat, 23 | Sun, 02 | Sun, 05 | Sun, 22 | Mon, 01 | Mon, 04 | Mon, 21 | Tue, 00 | Tue, 03 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low cloud | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Mid cloud | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 79% |
| High cloud | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 76% | 81% | 90% |
| Temperature | 16 °C | 11 °C | 9 °C | 7 °C | 13 °C | 9 °C | 8 °C | 17 °C | 13 °C | 13 °C |
| Feels like | 16 °C | 11 °C | 7 °C | 5 °C | 13 °C | 8 °C | 6 °C | 17 °C | 13 °C | 13 °C |
| Wind | 4 m/s | 3 m/s | 3 m/s | 3 m/s | 1 m/s | 3 m/s | 3 m/s | 4 m/s | 4 m/s | 4 m/s |
Cloud layers and weather: MET Norway (CC BY 4.0).
Score = activity (NOAA Kp and OVATION) × clear sky (MET Norway) × darkness × moonlight. Methodology
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What you would see from Bagdad
Facing south. Bands show where the aurora sits at two activity levels.
| Kp | What you see | Lower edge | Ray tops | Distance to the aurora |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Below the horizon | 1° | 6° | 1,012 km |
| 3 | Faint glow, mostly on camera | 4° | 10° | 790 km |
| 4 | Faint glow, mostly on camera | 8° | 17° | 567 km |
| 5 | Visible to the south | 15° | 28° | 345 km |
| 6 | Visible to the south | 40° | 58° | 122 km |
| 7 | Overhead and all around | – | – | – |
| 8 | Overhead and all around | – | – | – |
| 9 | Overhead, and also to the north | – | – | – |
The Kp scale in plain words
Kp is a 0–9 score for how strongly the Earth's magnetic field is being shaken by the solar wind. The higher it goes, the further from the poles the northern lights reach. Kp 0–2 is a quiet night; Kp 5 and above is a geomagnetic storm.
- Kp 0–2 Quiet next 24 h Only under the auroral oval: northern Norway, Swedish and Finnish Lapland, Iceland, Alaska, northern Canada.
- Kp 3 Unsettled camera in Bagdad Bright in the Arctic; low on the horizon in central Scandinavia and southern Iceland.
- Kp 4 Active eye in Bagdad Overhead in the Arctic; low in the north from southern Norway, Sweden, Finland and northern Scotland.
- Kp 5 Minor storm (G1) Scotland, southern Scandinavia, the Baltic states, the northern US states and southern Canada.
- Kp 6 Moderate storm (G2) Northern England, Denmark, northern Germany and Poland, the US Midwest — often clearer in photos than to the eye.
- Kp 7 Strong storm (G3) Most of the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Czechia; red glow in photos from France and the northern Alps.
- Kp 8 Severe storm (G4) Central Europe to the eye; red sky in photos from northern Italy, Spain, the Balkans and Turkey's Black Sea coast.
- Kp 9 Extreme storm (G5) Seen across Europe and the US; in photos as far south as the Mediterranean, Turkey and North Africa (May 2024).
Light pollution
Pristine dark sky. Almost no artificial light: faint aurora and the Milky Way are easy to see.
Estimate from NASA VIIRS night-light data (sky-glow model within 50 km). Check access and private land before you go.
Hills and mountains
Terrain is not modelled for this place.
From elevation data (AWS Terrain Tiles) along seven lines of sight up to 30 km.
Best months to see the aurora in Bagdad
Share of nights 2005–2025 that were dark, active enough here and mostly clear.
August has been the best month (5% of nights), followed by September (4%).
| Month | Good nights | Clear nights | Darkness | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March | 4% | 65% | 9.5 h | 8° / 19°C |
| April | 4% | 66% | 11.0 h | 7° / 15°C |
| May | 4% | 61% | 12.0 h | 5° / 12°C |
| June | 4% | 64% | 12.6 h | 4° / 10°C |
| July | 3% | 59% | 12.3 h | 3° / 9°C |
| August | 5% | 65% | 11.4 h | 3° / 10°C |
| September | 4% | 67% | 9.9 h | 4° / 12°C |
| October | 4% | 64% | 8.5 h | 5° / 14°C |
Aurora nights in Bagdad since 1995
Nights when Kp reached 4.7 or more while it was dark here.
Most recent strong nights
- 10 October 2026 · Kp 7.3
- 4 October 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 18 August 2026 · Kp 5.3
- 8 August 2026 · Kp 6.0
- 2 August 2026 · Kp 5.7
- 23 July 2026 · Kp 5.0
- 4 July 2026 · Kp 6.7
- 5 June 2026 · Kp 6.0
Practical information
- Nearest airport
- Hobart International Airport (HBA) · 33 km
- Typical low / high in August
- 3° / 10°C
- What to wear
- Cool nights: layers, a windproof jacket, hat and gloves for standing still outside. Full clothing guide
- Emergency number
- 000 (112 also works from mobile phones)
- Winter driving
- Under Victoria's Alpine Resorts (Management) Regulations 2020, every vehicle entering Falls Creek, Mt Baw Baw, Mt Buller, Mt Hotham and Mt Stirling must carry fitting wheel chains during the declared snow season (2026: 7 June - 4 October). Check VicTraffic for live Victorian road disruptions; in Tasmania, elevated roads get snow and ice in winter and closures are posted via Tasmania Police alerts / TasALERT. Road conditions
- Access to land
- Most Tasmanian national parks require a valid Parks & Wildlife Service parks pass per vehicle (24-hour, holiday/8-week, annual options; Cradle Mountain excluded from the 24-hour pass). Check land tenure before parking at night and respect any local closures.
- Official space-weather service
- Bureau of Meteorology Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre (Aurora Watch/Alert/Outlook)
- Weather service
- Bureau of Meteorology
Questions and answers
What Kp do you need to see the aurora in Bagdad?
Bagdad needs an active night: from about Kp 4.3 the aurora appears low over the south horizon, and it rises higher as activity grows.
Which way should I look for the aurora in Bagdad?
Face south (about 188° from true north). At Kp 4.3 the lower edge of the aurora sits roughly 15° above the horizon; stronger activity lifts it higher and further across the sky.
What is the best month to see the aurora in Bagdad?
Over 2005–2025, August gave the best odds in Bagdad (5% of nights dark, active enough and mostly clear), followed by September (4%).
When is the aurora season in Bagdad?
Bagdad gets dark enough for the aurora all year round, though the long winter nights give the most hours to watch.
Is there much light pollution in Bagdad?
Almost no artificial light: faint aurora and the Milky Way are easy to see.
When was the aurora last possible in Bagdad?
Activity last reached storm level (Kp 5 or more) during darkness in Bagdad on 10 October 2026 (Kp 7.3) — 860 such nights since 1995. Here the aurora also appears on many quieter nights.
Also covered by this forecast
Villages and districts around Bagdad share its forecast: within a few kilometres the sky, the Kp needed and the best direction are the same.
- Mangalore 2 km
- Wybra Hall 5 km
- Pontville 7 km
- Dysart 7 km
- Maiden Early 9 km
- Broadmarsh 9 km
- Tea Tree 10 km
- Merriworth 10 km
- Kempton 11 km
- Elderslie 13 km
- Mauriceton 14 km
- Yarlington 16 km
- Tanina 16 km
- Colebrook 16 km
- Melton Mowbray 18 km
- Pelham 19 km
- Brandy Bottom 20 km
- Rhyndaston 21 km
- Eldon 22 km
- Apsley 22 km
- Hollow Tree 26 km
- Tunnack 28 km
- Jericho 28 km
- Stonor 29 km
- Southern Midlands 29 km
- Baden 30 km
- Mount Seymour 32 km
- Bothwell 32 km
- Rutland 32 km
- Lower Marshes 32 km
- Whitefoord 33 km
- Parattah 34 km
- Oatlands 38 km
- Andover 38 km