Victoria, AustraliaMagnetic latitude 49.2°Population 32,89424 m above sea level
Can you see the southern lights in Warrnambool?
From Warrnambool the aurora is seen only during geomagnetic storms (about Kp 6.7 or more), usually as a glow low in the south. Cameras often pick it up before the eye does. Since 1995 that level (Kp 6.7) was reached during darkness here on 105 nights.
Right now
It is still light here. Darkness starts at 20:50.
Latest measured half-hour activity worldwide: Hp30 1.3.
Updates every minute while this page is open. Ground data: GFZ Potsdam Hp30 index (CC BY 4.0).
Tonight in one minute
Not tonight
- Solar activity Too weak: Kp 1.3 expected, 6.7 needed here.
- Sky Mostly clear (1% cloud).
- Darkness Dark from 20:50 to 05:39.
What to do: Not tonight — your next chance is shown just below.
Sunday 1 November — Photos only · Kp 5 · best around 00:30 · No cloud forecast this far ahead; in October about 71% of nights are clear here. · Reliability: low (rough trend)
Each box is one night: the colour shows the chance, the number the expected Kp. Tap a night for details.
📅 Add these nights to your calendar — it updates itself (.ics)
How far ahead can the northern lights be forecast?
- Minutes to an hour: satellites 1.5 million km away measure the solar wind before it reaches Earth. This is the surest warning — the “Right now” box uses it.
- 1–3 days: when the Sun throws out a cloud of particles, it takes one to three days to arrive. NOAA's 3-hourly forecast covers these nights; the timing can still be off by a few hours.
- 4–27 days: the Sun turns once every 27 days, and regions that disturbed Earth's field last time often do it again. NOAA's 27-day outlook gives this rough trend — new eruptions are not in it yet.
Tonight
Updated 12:29 local time
Unlikely
Best around 20:00. Forecast max Kp 1.3 (this place needs 6.7), average cloud 1%.
- Dark enough
- 20:50 – 05:39
- Sunset
- 19:50 · sunrise 06:39
- Moon
- 44% · ↑ 11:33 · ↓ 02:53
- Kp neededKp index: a 0–9 measure of geomagnetic activity. The higher it is, the further from the poles the aurora reaches.
- Kp 6.7
- Kp for photos
- In photos: from Kp 5 (a red glow low in the south).
- Look towards
- south (186°)
Cloud layers and weather
Low cloud blocks the aurora completely. Thin high cloud often still lets a bright aurora shine through, so a sky with only high cloud is worth a look.
| Time | Sun, 21 | Mon, 00 | Mon, 03 | Mon, 21 | Tue, 00 | Tue, 03 | Tue, 21 | Wed, 00 | Wed, 03 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low cloud | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7% | 15% | 28% |
| Mid cloud | 7% | 0% | 0% | 48% | 50% | 34% | 62% | 36% | 32% |
| High cloud | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 88% | 29% |
| Temperature | 19 °C | 17 °C | 15 °C | 22 °C | 19 °C | 18 °C | 17 °C | 14 °C | 13 °C |
| Feels like | 19 °C | 17 °C | 15 °C | 22 °C | 19 °C | 18 °C | 17 °C | 14 °C | 13 °C |
| Wind | 4 m/s | 4 m/s | 4 m/s | 4 m/s | 4 m/s | 4 m/s | 1 m/s | 1 m/s | 1 m/s |
Cloud layers and weather: Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0).
Score = activity (NOAA Kp and OVATION) × clear sky (MET Norway) × darkness × moonlight. Methodology
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What you would see from Warrnambool
Facing south. Bands show where the aurora sits at two activity levels.
| Kp | What you see | Lower edge | Ray tops | Distance to the aurora |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Below the horizon | -3° | 1° | 1,479 km |
| 3 | Below the horizon | -1° | 3° | 1,257 km |
| 4 | Below the horizon | 1° | 6° | 1,034 km |
| 5 | Faint glow, mostly on camera | 4° | 10° | 812 km |
| 6 | Faint glow, mostly on camera | 7° | 16° | 589 km |
| 7 | Visible to the south | 14° | 27° | 367 km |
| 8 | Visible to the south | 35° | 53° | 145 km |
| 9 | Overhead and all around | – | – | – |
The Kp scale in plain words
Kp is a 0–9 score for how strongly the Earth's magnetic field is being shaken by the solar wind. The higher it goes, the further from the poles the northern lights reach. Kp 0–2 is a quiet night; Kp 5 and above is a geomagnetic storm.
- Kp 0–2 Quiet next 24 h Only under the auroral oval: northern Norway, Swedish and Finnish Lapland, Iceland, Alaska, northern Canada.
- Kp 3 Unsettled Bright in the Arctic; low on the horizon in central Scandinavia and southern Iceland.
- Kp 4 Active Overhead in the Arctic; low in the north from southern Norway, Sweden, Finland and northern Scotland.
- Kp 5 Minor storm (G1) camera in Warrnambool Scotland, southern Scandinavia, the Baltic states, the northern US states and southern Canada.
- Kp 6 Moderate storm (G2) Northern England, Denmark, northern Germany and Poland, the US Midwest — often clearer in photos than to the eye.
- Kp 7 Strong storm (G3) eye in Warrnambool Most of the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Czechia; red glow in photos from France and the northern Alps.
- Kp 8 Severe storm (G4) Central Europe to the eye; red sky in photos from northern Italy, Spain, the Balkans and Turkey's Black Sea coast.
- Kp 9 Extreme storm (G5) Seen across Europe and the US; in photos as far south as the Mediterranean, Turkey and North Africa (May 2024).
Light pollution
Bright suburban sky. Strong sky glow washes out faint aurora. Head out of town for anything but a bright display.
Estimate from NASA VIIRS night-light data (sky-glow model within 50 km). Check access and private land before you go.
Hills and mountains
Terrain is not modelled for this place.
From elevation data (AWS Terrain Tiles) along seven lines of sight up to 30 km.
Best months to see the aurora in Warrnambool
Share of nights 2005–2025 that were dark, active enough here and mostly clear.
April has been the best month (1% of nights), followed by May (1%).
| Month | Good nights | Clear nights | Darkness | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March | 0.6% | 83% | 9.6 h | 13° / 24°C |
| April | 0.8% | 76% | 11.0 h | 11° / 20°C |
| May | 0.8% | 76% | 11.9 h | 9° / 16°C |
| June | 0.3% | 66% | 12.3 h | 7° / 13°C |
| July | 0.2% | 70% | 12.1 h | 6° / 13°C |
| August | 0.6% | 73% | 11.3 h | 7° / 14°C |
| September | 0.6% | 70% | 10.3 h | 7° / 16°C |
| October | 0.3% | 71% | 8.9 h | 8° / 18°C |
Aurora nights in Warrnambool since 1995
Nights when Kp reached 6.7 or more while it was dark here.
Most recent strong nights
- 10 October 2026 · Kp 7.3
- 4 July 2026 · Kp 6.7
- 22 March 2026 · Kp 7.0
- 20 January 2026 · Kp 7.3
- 12 November 2025 · Kp 7.7
- 2 June 2025 · Kp 7.0
- 1 June 2025 · Kp 7.3
- 16 April 2025 · Kp 7.7
Practical information
- Nearest airport
- Portland Airport (PTJ) · 89 km
- Typical low / high in April
- 11° / 20°C
- What to wear
- Cool nights: layers, a windproof jacket, hat and gloves for standing still outside. Full clothing guide
- Emergency number
- 000 (112 also works from mobile phones)
- Winter driving
- Under Victoria's Alpine Resorts (Management) Regulations 2020, every vehicle entering Falls Creek, Mt Baw Baw, Mt Buller, Mt Hotham and Mt Stirling must carry fitting wheel chains during the declared snow season (2026: 7 June - 4 October). Check VicTraffic for live Victorian road disruptions; in Tasmania, elevated roads get snow and ice in winter and closures are posted via Tasmania Police alerts / TasALERT. Road conditions
- Access to land
- Most Tasmanian national parks require a valid Parks & Wildlife Service parks pass per vehicle (24-hour, holiday/8-week, annual options; Cradle Mountain excluded from the 24-hour pass). Check land tenure before parking at night and respect any local closures.
- Official space-weather service
- Bureau of Meteorology Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre (Aurora Watch/Alert/Outlook)
- Weather service
- Bureau of Meteorology
Questions and answers
What Kp do you need to see the aurora in Warrnambool?
From Warrnambool the aurora is seen only during geomagnetic storms (about Kp 6.7 or more), usually as a glow low in the south. Cameras often pick it up before the eye does.
Which way should I look for the aurora in Warrnambool?
Face south (about 186° from true north). At Kp 6.7 the lower edge of the aurora sits roughly 14° above the horizon; stronger activity lifts it higher and further across the sky.
What is the best month to see the aurora in Warrnambool?
Over 2005–2025, April gave the best odds in Warrnambool (1% of nights dark, active enough and mostly clear), followed by May (1%).
When is the aurora season in Warrnambool?
Warrnambool gets dark enough for the aurora all year round, though the long winter nights give the most hours to watch.
Is there much light pollution in Warrnambool?
Strong sky glow washes out faint aurora. Head out of town for anything but a bright display.
When was the aurora last possible in Warrnambool?
The most recent night in our data when activity reached the level Warrnambool needs, during darkness, was 10 October 2026 (Kp 7.3). It has happened on 105 nights since 1995.
Also covered by this forecast
Villages and districts around Warrnambool share its forecast: within a few kilometres the sky, the Kp needed and the best direction are the same.
- Warrnambool 3 km
- Dennington 6 km
- Bushfield 6 km
- Woodford 7 km
- Yangery 8 km
- Illowa 8 km
- Mailors Flat 9 km
- Allansford 9 km
- Wangoom 10 km
- Yarpturk 12 km
- Southern Cross 12 km
- Grassmere 12 km
- Tower Hill 13 km
- Killarney 14 km
- Koroit 15 km
- Cudgee 15 km
- Crossley 16 km
- Winslow 17 km
- Purnim 17 km
- Naringal 19 km
- Warrong 20 km
- Kirkstall 20 km
- Woolsthorpe 21 km
- Rosebrook 21 km
- Moyne 21 km
- Mepunga 21 km
- Port Fairy 22 km
- Panmure 22 km
- Moyne 22 km
- Mepunga East 23 km
- Ballangeich 24 km
- Toolong 24 km
- Nullawarre 26 km
- Framlingham 26 km
- Framlingham East 27 km
- Nullawarre North 27 km
- North Ballangeich 28 km
- Nirranda 29 km
- Laang 29 km
- Willatook 31 km