Victoria, AustraliaMagnetic latitude 48.7°Population 34,45710 m above sea level
Can you see the southern lights in Frankston East?
From Frankston East the aurora is seen only during geomagnetic storms (about Kp 7 or more), usually as a glow low in the south. Cameras often pick it up before the eye does. Since 1995 that level (Kp 7) was reached during darkness here on 78 nights.
Right now
Quiet right now (Kp 1.7).
Latest measured half-hour activity worldwide: Hp30 2.
Updates every minute while this page is open. Ground data: GFZ Potsdam Hp30 index (CC BY 4.0).
Tonight in one minute
Not tonight
- Solar activity Too weak: Kp 3.3 expected, 7 needed here.
- Sky Mostly clear (17% cloud).
- Darkness Dark from 20:43 to 05:24. A bright moon (76%) washes out faint displays.
What to do: Not tonight — your next chance is shown just below.
Thursday 22 October — No · Kp 3.3 · Forecast cloud: 17%. · Reliability: good
Each box is one night: the colour shows the chance, the number the expected Kp. Tap a night for details.
📅 Add these nights to your calendar — it updates itself (.ics)
How far ahead can the northern lights be forecast?
- Minutes to an hour: satellites 1.5 million km away measure the solar wind before it reaches Earth. This is the surest warning — the “Right now” box uses it.
- 1–3 days: when the Sun throws out a cloud of particles, it takes one to three days to arrive. NOAA's 3-hourly forecast covers these nights; the timing can still be off by a few hours.
- 4–27 days: the Sun turns once every 27 days, and regions that disturbed Earth's field last time often do it again. NOAA's 27-day outlook gives this rough trend — new eruptions are not in it yet.
Tonight
Updated 21:33 local time
Unlikely
Best around 21:00. Forecast max Kp 3.3 (this place needs 7), average cloud 17%.
- Dark enough
- 20:43 – 05:24
- Sunset
- 19:42 · sunrise 06:24
- Moon
- 76% · ↑ 15:32 · ↓ 04:07
- Kp neededKp index: a 0–9 measure of geomagnetic activity. The higher it is, the further from the poles the aurora reaches.
- Kp 7
- Kp for photos
- In photos: from Kp 5.3 (a red glow low in the south).
- Look towards
- south (186°)
Cloud layers and weather
Low cloud blocks the aurora completely. Thin high cloud often still lets a bright aurora shine through, so a sky with only high cloud is worth a look.
| Time | Wed, 21 | Thu, 00 | Thu, 03 | Thu, 20 | Thu, 23 | Fri, 02 | Fri, 05 | Fri, 22 | Sat, 01 | Sat, 04 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low cloud | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 14% |
| Mid cloud | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 59% | 71% | 65% |
| High cloud | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 31% | 55% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Temperature | 16 °C | 14 °C | 12 °C | 22 °C | 18 °C | 16 °C | 17 °C | 18 °C | 15 °C | 15 °C |
| Feels like | 16 °C | 14 °C | 12 °C | 22 °C | 18 °C | 16 °C | 17 °C | 18 °C | 15 °C | 15 °C |
| Wind | 3 m/s | 2 m/s | 2 m/s | 1 m/s | 2 m/s | 3 m/s | 4 m/s | 2 m/s | 2 m/s | 1 m/s |
Cloud layers and weather: Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0).
Score = activity (NOAA Kp and OVATION) × clear sky (MET Norway) × darkness × moonlight. Methodology
Weather in Frankston East
The aurora only shows through clear skies, so the weather matters as much as the Kp index. Here is the general forecast for Frankston East: temperature, wind and the chance of rain for the coming days.
Planning further ahead? See the hour-by-hour weather forecast for Frankston East on Atlas of Seasons.
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What you would see from Frankston East
Facing south. Bands show where the aurora sits at two activity levels.
| Kp | What you see | Lower edge | Ray tops | Distance to the aurora |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Below the horizon | -3° | 0° | 1,535 km |
| 3 | Below the horizon | -1° | 3° | 1,312 km |
| 4 | Below the horizon | 1° | 5° | 1,090 km |
| 5 | Below the horizon | 3° | 9° | 867 km |
| 6 | Faint glow, mostly on camera | 6° | 14° | 645 km |
| 7 | Visible to the south | 12° | 23° | 423 km |
| 8 | Visible to the south | 27° | 44° | 200 km |
| 9 | Overhead and all around | – | – | – |
The Kp scale in plain words
Kp is a 0–9 score for how strongly the Earth's magnetic field is being shaken by the solar wind. The higher it goes, the further from the poles the northern lights reach. Kp 0–2 is a quiet night; Kp 5 and above is a geomagnetic storm.
- Kp 0–2 Quiet Only under the auroral oval: northern Norway, Swedish and Finnish Lapland, Iceland, Alaska, northern Canada.
- Kp 3 Unsettled next 24 h Bright in the Arctic; low on the horizon in central Scandinavia and southern Iceland.
- Kp 4 Active Overhead in the Arctic; low in the north from southern Norway, Sweden, Finland and northern Scotland.
- Kp 5 Minor storm (G1) camera in Frankston East Scotland, southern Scandinavia, the Baltic states, the northern US states and southern Canada.
- Kp 6 Moderate storm (G2) Northern England, Denmark, northern Germany and Poland, the US Midwest — often clearer in photos than to the eye.
- Kp 7 Strong storm (G3) eye in Frankston East Most of the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Czechia; red glow in photos from France and the northern Alps.
- Kp 8 Severe storm (G4) Central Europe to the eye; red sky in photos from northern Italy, Spain, the Balkans and Turkey's Black Sea coast.
- Kp 9 Extreme storm (G5) Seen across Europe and the US; in photos as far south as the Mediterranean, Turkey and North Africa (May 2024).
Light pollution
Bright suburban sky. Strong sky glow washes out faint aurora. Head out of town for anything but a bright display.
Estimate from NASA VIIRS night-light data (sky-glow model within 50 km). Check access and private land before you go.
Hills and mountains
Terrain is not modelled for this place.
From elevation data (AWS Terrain Tiles) along seven lines of sight up to 30 km.
Best months to see the aurora in Frankston East
Share of nights 2005–2025 that were dark, active enough here and mostly clear.
April has been the best month (1% of nights), followed by August (1%).
| Month | Good nights | Clear nights | Darkness | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March | 0.3% | 79% | 9.6 h | 14° / 24°C |
| April | 0.6% | 72% | 11.0 h | 12° / 20°C |
| May | 0.3% | 67% | 11.9 h | 10° / 17°C |
| June | 0.5% | 58% | 12.3 h | 8° / 14°C |
| July | 0.2% | 53% | 12.1 h | 7° / 13°C |
| August | 0.6% | 56% | 11.3 h | 7° / 14°C |
| September | 0.3% | 62% | 10.3 h | 8° / 16°C |
| October | 0.3% | 67% | 9.0 h | 10° / 19°C |
Aurora nights in Frankston East since 1995
Nights when Kp reached 7 or more while it was dark here.
Most recent strong nights
- 10 October 2026 · Kp 7.3
- 22 March 2026 · Kp 7.0
- 20 January 2026 · Kp 7.7
- 12 November 2025 · Kp 7.7
- 2 June 2025 · Kp 7.0
- 1 June 2025 · Kp 7.3
- 16 April 2025 · Kp 7.7
- 1 January 2025 · Kp 8.0
Practical information
- Nearest airport
- Melbourne Moorabbin Airport (MBW) · 18 km
Melbourne Airport (MEL) · 58 km - Typical low / high in April
- 12° / 20°C
- What to wear
- Cool nights: layers, a windproof jacket, hat and gloves for standing still outside. Full clothing guide
- Emergency number
- 000 (112 also works from mobile phones)
- Winter driving
- Under Victoria's Alpine Resorts (Management) Regulations 2020, every vehicle entering Falls Creek, Mt Baw Baw, Mt Buller, Mt Hotham and Mt Stirling must carry fitting wheel chains during the declared snow season (2026: 7 June - 4 October). Check VicTraffic for live Victorian road disruptions; in Tasmania, elevated roads get snow and ice in winter and closures are posted via Tasmania Police alerts / TasALERT. Road conditions
- Access to land
- Most Tasmanian national parks require a valid Parks & Wildlife Service parks pass per vehicle (24-hour, holiday/8-week, annual options; Cradle Mountain excluded from the 24-hour pass). Check land tenure before parking at night and respect any local closures.
- Official space-weather service
- Bureau of Meteorology Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre (Aurora Watch/Alert/Outlook)
- Weather service
- Bureau of Meteorology
Questions and answers
What Kp do you need to see the aurora in Frankston East?
From Frankston East the aurora is seen only during geomagnetic storms (about Kp 7 or more), usually as a glow low in the south. Cameras often pick it up before the eye does.
Which way should I look for the aurora in Frankston East?
Face south (about 186° from true north). At Kp 7 the lower edge of the aurora sits roughly 12° above the horizon; stronger activity lifts it higher and further across the sky.
What is the best month to see the aurora in Frankston East?
Over 2005–2025, April gave the best odds in Frankston East (1% of nights dark, active enough and mostly clear), followed by August (1%).
When is the aurora season in Frankston East?
Frankston East gets dark enough for the aurora all year round, though the long winter nights give the most hours to watch.
Is there much light pollution in Frankston East?
Strong sky glow washes out faint aurora. Head out of town for anything but a bright display.
When was the aurora last possible in Frankston East?
The most recent night in our data when activity reached the level Frankston East needs, during darkness, was 10 October 2026 (Kp 7.3). It has happened on 78 nights since 1995.
Also covered by this forecast
Villages and districts around Frankston East share its forecast: within a few kilometres the sky, the Kp needed and the best direction are the same.
- Mile Bridge 0 km
- Frankston 2 km
- Ballam Park 2 km
- Frankston North 2 km
- Frankston 3 km
- Seaford 4 km
- Frankston South 4 km
- Langwarrin 5 km
- Carrum Downs 5 km
- Lyndhurst South 6 km
- Carrum 6 km
- Mount Eliza 7 km
- Patterson Lakes 7 km
- Baxter 8 km
- Bonbeach 8 km
- Skye 8 km
- Langwarrin South 8 km
- Moorooduc 9 km
- Chelsea 9 km
- Carrum North 9 km
- Cranbourne South 9 km
- Sandhurst 9 km
- Somerville 10 km
- Lyndhurst 11 km
- Edithvale 11 km
- Chelsea Heights 11 km
- Pearcedale 12 km
- Aspendale 12 km
- Aspendale Gardens 12 km
- Botanic Ridge 12 km
- Cranbourne West 12 km
- Bangholme 12 km
- Mornington 13 km
- Cranbourne 13 km
- Waterways 13 km
- Tyabb 14 km
- Lynbrook 14 km
- Junction Village 14 km
- Mordialloc 15 km
- Hampton Park 15 km